NBA FanDuel Daily Picks and Pivots – November 22
Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 25 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 370.6 a night which means we have needed 6.17x value to win big!
Tuesday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 7:30PM EST with four games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guard Daily Picks
Russell Westbrook ($11,800) On a short slate my number one rule in NBA DFS is to find the top stud and lock him in and Westbrook is the unquestioned top play on the board even with Anthony Davis on this slate!
Oklahoma City is taking on the Lakers in a game where they have the highest projected team total (111.5), which is over 6 points higher than their season scoring average. The Thunder see the second highest pace increase on the slate and with only a 2 pt spread in Vegas this game should stay close.
So to recap, highest scoring team in a pace up game where Westbrook should play as many minutes as he can handle. These teams played already once this season and Westbrook put up 33 points, 16 assists, 11 rebounds and 67.2 FD points. Just play the man! On a four game slate do not over think this one, you will not be able to keep pace with the field if you play the fade here!
Emmanuel Mudiay ($6,100) The second point guard spot is interesting on this slate as the $5-$6k range is littered with reasonable options to pair with Mr. Triple Double but Mudiay stands out as one of the best plays on the board in my mind.
After some early season struggles Mudiay has rebounded in his last three games to put up averages of 38.6 minutes, 16.6 points, 7.6 assists and 6.3 rebounds for an average of 36.1 FD points (5.9x) per game.
The only hesitation is that the Nuggets are the only team on this slate in a projected pace down game so if you want a pivot in the same game, Rajon Rondo ($5,700) gets to take on the Nuggets who are 28th in DvP to opposing PG’s and is averaging 32.9 FD points the last two games on the back of 10 assists and 9.5 rebounds per game!
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Victor Oladipo ($5,900) Heading back to OKC, I am looking to load up on this game and with Oladipo still priced under $6k he is a great (albeit likely popular) play on this slate.
Oladipo finally looks comfortable in his role in OKC as he has now put up at least 14 shot attempts in the last four games and has at least 5 rebounds and 5 assists in each of his last three games. The Lakers are 24th in the league in DvP to opposing SG’s so this is a favorable match-up for Dipo that gives us high level exposure to the marquee fantasy game on tonight’s slate at a reasonable price point.
Lou Williams ($5,100) Yes more from this game! Williams is playing some of his best basketball of the season in recent games, having surpassed 6x value in each of his last two games with 32.7 and 34.1 FanDuel points reached.
Without D’Angelo Russell in the lineup, and likely out again Tuesday, Williams has taken on an expanded role in the Lakers back court and has scored 24.5 real life points in the last two games as a result.
This is a big time pace up game for the Lakers and if Russell misses this game as expected, Williams should continue to see an expanded role as he sees his usage increase to a team high 33.1% with Russell off the floor and averaged 1.1 FP/M. Fire up Sweet Lou on this slate!
NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forward Picks
Carmelo Anthony ($7,900) One game we haven’t touched on yet but need to is the Knicks-Portland match-up at MSG where the Knicks have the third highest team total on the board (109.3) which is a whopping 6.8 points above their season average!
Small forward is one of the hardest positions to nail down on this slate so locking in Melo at sub $8k to me is a no-brainer play as we want to get as much exposure to the Knicks here as we can. Anthony gets to face a Portland team that is 18th in DvP to opposing SF’s and is likely more of a cash game play as he would need 47.4 FD points to hit 6x which he has not done yet this year but he has eclipsed 40 FD points in 2 of his last 5.
Dante Cunningham ($3,500) I told you SF was ugly! The mid range of SF’s options is littered with Nuggets players in a tough spot against the Bulls and Jimmy Butler defense and frankly after that it may just make sense to drop all the way down to Cunningham at punt salary.
Listen, I do not like playing the Pelicans wing players or really any Pelican other than AD and Frazier/Jrue but Cunningham played 43 minutes in his last game. Forty Three! Now he only managed 19.1 FD points (5.5x) but sometimes all we are looking for is the opportunity and with the amount of run he is getting you cannot simply dismiss him on a four game slate especially since we want to pay up at the next position!
NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,200) Power forward is a spot I want to pay up for tonight as we get some high upside talent at sub $8k prices and they fit in nicely with a Westbrook roster construction. The Knicks get to face a Portland team that is 29th in DvP to opposing PF’s and Porzingis should be able to exploit the Portland front court on both sides of the ball in this one. Zingis has eclipsed 30+ FD points in each of his last four games including a 50 burger he dropped on the Pistons earlier this week.
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Paul Millsap ($7,600) Millsap typically goes overlooked in DFS circles on a daily basis but for a player that is coming off three straight 39+ FD point performances he allows us to lock in one of the safest floors on the slate. The Hawks are expected to see an uptick in their projected points and pace in this game against New Orleans which gives Millsap increased upside at a price point where he should be largely overlooked with The Brow in play!
Jusuf Nurkic ($4,900) Center is going to be a pay down spot on this slate and with multiple options at this price point including Steven Adams/Robin Lopez, we should see the ownership largely spread out between the multiple options.
Nurkic is a volatile option but frankly so is everyone at this price point and considering he is coming off a double-double 32+ FD point performance against the Jazz, he have a clear understanding of the upside he possesses. The Bulls are 23rd in DvP against opposing Centers which should allow Nurkic to build off this game and give DFS players elite upside at a bargain price point.
Next: College Football Picks Against the Spread
Best of luck on Tuesday Night – we will see you back here for more NBA FanDuel action on Wednesday!