NBA FanDuel Daily Picks and Pivots – December 5
Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 36 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 372.1 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Monday’s Main NBA FanDuel action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with eleven games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guard Picks
John Wall ($9,300) Looking over the initial layout of tonight’s eleven game slate, we have the usual studs we can pay up for but with so many great match-ups and close Vegas totals this looks to be a night I will go with a more balanced roster construction.
The Wizards are going to be by far my favorite team to target tonight as they get a road game with the Brooklyn Nets. The Wizards have the second highest team total on the night (112.5) which is just under 10 points higher than their season average while seeing the single biggest pace increase of any team on the slate.
Now factor in that the Nets are dead last in dead last in the NBA in fantasy points allowed and we have a prime stacking opportunity for the Wizards including their star, John Wall. Wall gets to face a Nets team giving up the most fantasy points to opposing PG’s and with a 5.5 Vegas spread, Wall has the potential to give you the highest score of any player on this slate at thousands of dollars cheaper than the bigger name stars!
Rajon Rondo ($6,200) Rondo is coming off a game where he let many NBA FanDuel players down and he saw his price increase over $6k so I expect many to stay away but this is exactly where I want to jump back on. The last game against Dallas was a poor spot for Rondo as without Dwayne Wade in the lineup we see Rondo’s fantasy production actually decrease and they played one of the slowest paced teams in the league!
Tonight however the Bulls have the third highest team total on the board at 111 which is 7+ points higher than their regular season average and see one of the biggest pace bumps against Portland. Prior to the Dallas dud, Rondo has been putting up 30+ FanDuel points each night and I expect him to get back to his well-rounded fantasy performances tonight with Wade back in the lineup. Fire Rondo back up tonight for a fraction of the ownership he had on Saturday!
UPDATE: Rondo has been SUSPENDED for tonight’s game. Dennis Schroder at $6,000 is an intriguing pivot at a similar price point if you are looking to keep the same roster construction. Anytime we can target PG’s in a pace up game against Russell Westbrook, this is a great spot for a high upside game in place of Rondo!
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Will Barton ($5,200) Barton has returned to the Nuggets lineup the last two games and exceeded 6x value in both contests while racking up 33+ FanDuel points each night. Barton is just flat-out too cheap for his role in the Nuggets offense as he has played 33 minutes in each game and taken at least 15 shots a night! Barton gets a great match-up tonight against Philadelphia in a game that should be high scoring and stay close throughout and I expect Barton to continue his 30+ FanDuel point performances and give us 6x GPP upside at a bargain price!
Bradley Beal ($6,900) The price on Beal is creeping up to a point that I expect will keep the ownership slightly down, but his recent performance and elite match-up against the Nets is enough to build a Wizards back-court stack tonight!
Beal has exceeded 40 FanDuel points (6x value) in four of his last seven games and tonight takes on a Brooklyn team that is 29th in the NBA in DvP to opposing SG’s. As I mentioned in the open, tonight is a night I am looking for balanced roster construction and if I can build a team of players that can all get me around 40 FanDuel points, I have the ability to take down a GPP!
NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forward Picks
Otto Porter ($6,300) The last piece of my Wizards stack – Otto Porter is a great mid-level salary play that has the ability to far exceed value tonight against the Nets. The Nets are 27th in DvP to opposing SF’s and assuming this game stays close as Vegas expects, I believe their will be plenty of fantasy production to go around for the Wizards Big Three!
Jae Crowder ($5,200) Crowder is no longer on a minutes restriction and the Celtics have been played him major minutes each night as he has exceeded 30+ minutes in each of his last four games. The Celtics are in an intriguing spot tonight against the Rockets and the best place to attack Houston this season has been at SF where they are 25th in DvP.
Crowder and Porter both allow me to build very safe 5x floors at SF for reasonable salary and have DvP match-ups that give you GPP upside!
NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Draymond Green ($8,000) The Warriors have by far the highest implied team total tonight at 120.8 but with a 15 points spread against Indiana this is a spot we should tread lightly with our exposure due to the blowout risk!
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We saw a similar scenario play out on Saturday where the Warriors had the highest team total and a large spread against Phoenix and the high-priced stars like Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry were not able to reach value at their inflated price. Green is a great way to get exposure here as the best place to attack the Pacers is up front where they are ranked 23rd in the NBA in DvP to opposing PF’s. The price point is reasonable on Green and even if the Warriors blow out Indiana, Draymond should be able to produce across the board and leaves you with enough salary to spend up elsewhere!
LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,500) I have to be honest, I do not think I have rostered LMA once this season and even tonight where I found myself in this price range, I played around with roster construction because I did not intend to target him. However this may be a sneaky spot to roster Aldridge tonight as the price point relative to his skill level is far too low and the Spurs actually have a solid match-up against the Bucks.
The Spurs are expected to see a slight uptick in point production and in pace and with a 5.5 point spread this may be a great spot to see the Spurs stars get full run! The Bucks have struggled with front-court players all season long and I expect Aldridge will go completely overlooked tonight. LMA will certainly not hurt you (unless he gets Popped at the last minute which is always possible) and he has the upside to dominate on any given night so I like the idea of getting some GPP exposure here.
Joel Embiid ($6,400) Welcome to Chalktown USA. Embiid is going to be MASSIVELY owned tonight on a slate where Center is relatively weak and Embiid is now looking at his highest minutes limit of the season. Embiid has back to back 40+ FanDuel point outing, exceeding 6x value in both games and is one of the best plays on the slate at Center. I can absolutely understand a strategic fade in large field multi-entry GPP’s but in cash games or single entry tournaments, the Process will be locked into every single one of my lineups tonight!
Next: FanDuel NBA Weekly Fantasy Forecast
Best of luck tonight – stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter throughout the day for all the late breaking lineup news and roster alerts as we help you build your best NBA FanDuel lineup!