NBA FanDuel Daily Picks and Pivots – December 19
Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 50 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 370.9 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Monday’s Main NBA FanDuel action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with five games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel Top Point Guard Picks
Russell Westbrook ($12,500) Let’s start at the top tonight with the only player priced above $10k and ultimately the first decision you have to make tonight – are you paying the premium for Russell Westbrook or not?
The price is insanely high and it will determine the rest of your roster construction but tonight is a night where I think you need to pay up for him as the cornerstone of your lineup.
First, the match-up is beyond ideal. Westbrook gets to take on an Atlanta team that is 29th in the NBA in DvP to opposing PG’s. Second, with Victor Oladipo still likely to miss this game, we saw the kind of insane numbers Westbrook could post when he dropped 26 points, 22 assists and 11 rebounds for a whopping 73 FanDuel points in his last game against the Suns.
Last, we have a short five game slate and a slew of mediocre totals/match-ups so I do not believe that any other player is capable of approaching the upside Westbrook has here. If the match-up were tougher and we had some legit pivots, I could argue to play the fade but tonight all the stars align to make Westbrook a must play in my opinion.
Eric Bledsoe ($8,100) The highest scoring game on the slate takes place between the Suns and Timberwolves with a solid 214 combined team total so this is the best pure game spot for fantasy points.
The ideal spot to attack the Timberwolves at is at point guard where they are ranked 24th in DvP on the season. Bledsoe is exactly the kind of high upside player we want to target in GPP play as he has eclipsed the 50 FanDuel point mark in two of his last five games and has a match-up tonight where he should be able to approach those kind of numbers again!
Earlier this season, Bledsoe dropped 23 points, 10 assists and 6 rebounds for 44 FanDuel points against this same Minnesota team and I look for him to approach those totals again tonight!
If you are looking for a cheaper pivot, Dennis Schroder ($6,800) is an a great spot opposite Westbrook tonight. For more insight, take a look at our Lucky 7’s FanDuel Picks for today!
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,300) It is not often I get to highlight the son of the Killer Crossover but tonight is one of the rare occasions I can aggressively lock him in and considering his father is my all-time favorite player, I always have the hope that THJ is the one who is going to take down a big GPP for me.
Ok enough about me – Hardaway Jr. makes for a great play tonight against OKC in a game where the Hawks see a pace uptick and projected point increase. Hardaway is locked into 30 minutes a night and has hit 6x value in two of his last four games including a 21 point, 33.8 FanDuel outing in his last game out against Charlotte.
If you need salary savings tonight to fit in Westbrook, Hardaway is a great way to accomplish that while still targeting 6x upside!
UPDATE: Hardaway will move back to the bench tonight with Kent Bazemore moving to the starting unit. Both players got 30 minutes of run last game so all this news may do is reduce the ownership on Hardaway who is still in play for GPP’s.
Gary Harris ($4,800) Shooting guard is a nice spot to save salary tonight with two players that are guaranteed major minutes. Harris has returned from injury and played 30+ minutes in each of his last two games and has averaged 31.2 FanDuel points which would exceed 6x value at this price point.
NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forward Picks
Andrew Wiggins ($6,300) The Timberwolves have the highest projected team total on the slate so we want to ensure we have exposure to this game and Wiggins has the best pure match-up of any Minnesota starter.
The Suns are 26th in DvP to opposing SF’s and the Minnesota small forward is part of one of the tightest rotations in the NBA and as a result is locked into 30+ minutes on a nightly basis. In a pace up game, Wiggins should be able to score in bunches and he makes for a great target at a tough to fill SF position.
Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,000) Tonight we get another chance to roster the man, the myth, the legend – DFS! The last time we targeted him, he went off for 13 points, 9 rebounds and 35 FanDuel points against the Nuggets.
Tonight, DFS gets the exact same match-up against Denver he exploited his last time out and is coming off a career high 17 points in his last outing. At a difficult position to fill tonight, I love the value DFS provides and will be targeting him aggressively tonight!
NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Tobias Harris ($5,600) The PF position tonight is littered with mid-range options between $5k-$6k so the ownership should be fairly spread out as a result. Harris is one player I frequently target as he is locked into major minutes and is a relatively steady contributor. Harris is typically more of a cash game play as he has failed to exceed 30 FanDuel points in 6 straight games but his role in the Detroit offense will not hurt you and allow you salary savings to pay up elsewhere.
If you are looking for a GPP pivot with higher upside, Nikola Jokic ($5,900) is in a great spot against a Dallas team he dropped 27 points, 11 rebounds and 49 FanDuel points on just three games ago! Read more on Jokic in today’s Lucky 7’s article!
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Markieff Morris ($5,000) Just when I thought I was out – he pulls me back in. Markieff has likely burned every DFS owner at least once this year and I expect he will be popular tonight after posting a 44.3 FanDuel point outing over 33 minutes in his last game.
The PF position is weak tonight and Morris gets one of the best pure match-ups as the Pacers are 24th in DvP to opposing PF’s. Morris is a solid option tonight with one of the biggest ceiling (and lowest floors) of any of the mid-range PF plays.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,400) Although the price is admittedly a bit higher than I would like to pay, Towns presents the highest upside target of any of the center plays and with Minnesota in such a dream spot tonight, I am happy to take a shot that he can duplicate his 41 point, 15 rebound and 62.5 FanDuel point outing from last game! I expect most will look to pay down at Center if they are rostering Westbrook so I like the idea of saving at other spots and spending up for KAT here tonight! The trio of Westbrook-Bledsoe-KAT presents a high upside foundation for all your GPP lineups tonight!
Best of luck tonight in your NBA FanDuel contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR Twitter all day for late breaking roster news and lineup updates!