NCAA Tournament 2017: 6 overrated/underrated teams

Underrated: Wisconsin Badgers

Next up is a major conference team with a legitimate underseeded gripe — the Wisconsin Badgers. The Big 10 looks to have thrown the committee for quite a loop, as there were a lot of odd decisions littering the seeds of the seven conference teams that made the tournament. Perhaps the strangest was the Wisconsin Badgers, though. With an adjusted efficiency margin of 23rd overall, per KenPom, a 5th or 6th seed would seem most appropriate. Even beyond the deeper statistics, Wisconsin finished 2nd in the Big Ten, tied for the most wins overall, and went to the semifinals of the conference tournament.

Somehow, the committee landed on Wisconsin as the 5th best team in the Big Ten, and just a few spots above a Northwestern squad they just finished beating by 28. There doesn’t appear to be a lot of logic here. Though Wisconsin was in the middle of a rough patch in their conference schedule — they dropped five of seven just before the conference tournament — they have suffered no injuries, and have a resume and metric profile arguably among the conference’s best. It doesn’t really make sense for the committee to lend this much weight to recent play over the full resume.

And this odd drop has landed Wisconsin in the path of the tournament’s overall 1-seed, the defending champion Villanova Wildcats, in their second game in the tournament — if they make it there. Not only is the seeding decision difficult to explain, it significantly affects the odds for the Badgers to make it to the money rounds of the NCAA Tournament. KenPom POTY candidate Ethan Happ and company can still get there, but it’s much, much harder than it should have been.