2017 NCAA Basketball Tournament: East Region Predictions
By Mike Marteny
2017 NCAA Basketball Tournament: East Region Predictions:
It’s that time of year again. The 2017 NCAA basketball tournament brackets are out. Millions of people wager billions of dollars on this annually. From the secretary at the office that chips in $5 for the pool and just picks the favorite mascots to the hardcore fans that play in Calcutta’s worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, there is something for everyone.
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Most of the hardcore aren’t out here scouring the internet in search of the little golden nugget of truth that no one else has overturned. They had their minds made up on Sunday night who their targets were.
However, for most of us average people, we mull over the brackets for a few hours trying to figure out what kind of upsets will happen and where.
Fair warning: I haven’t won a bracket pool in quite some time, but I am consistently in the top five or so. It just depends on the size and payout of your pool whether these will actually work or not. All we know is that one region will be completely destroyed, at least one 12 seed will win, a team from the play-ins will advance past the first round, and a one seed will lose in the first weekend. That’s just the beginning!
Let’s get started with the East region, and the defending champions!
(1)Villanova(31-3) vs. (16)Mount St Marys(20-15):
Villanova:
Tournament record: 57-35
Tournament appearance: 37th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Wildcats
Location: Villanova, PA
The Wildcats followed up their 2016 National Title with the most wins ever by a defending National Champion. Part of that is related to playing in the Big East, but they did beat Notre Dame, Virginia, and Purdue out of conference, along with Creighton twice in conference.
Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins were big pieces of last year’s title run, and they are still here. Just like last year, the Wildcats are excellent on the perimeter, and one of the most versatile teams around. They aren’t particularly big, but they shoot and rebound well. This is not an easy bracket, yet the committee claims they are the number one overall seed. Will they live up to that billing?
Mount St. Marys:
Tournament record: 2-4
Tournament appearance: 5th
Last appearance: 2014
Mascot: Mountaineers
Location: Emmitsburg, MD
The Mountaineers have two NCAA tournament wins, yet they have never been anything other than a 16 seed. No 16 seed has ever beaten a number one. Don’t count on it happening here either.
The guard tandem of Elijah Long and Junior Robinson have carried this team all year. Robinson is the smallest player in the country, not just the tournament, at 5’5″ tall. He played all 40 minutes and dropped 23 points in their opening round win.
Mawdo Sallah and Chris Wray make the Mountaineers a rare mid-major with size in the middle. Neither of them are much of an offensive threat, but they are capable.
Junior Robinson is a good story, and he will do everything he can to make sure Mount St. Marys stays close, but I doubt it happens. The Mountaineers may put on a good show for 20-30 minutes, but they will ultimately be overpowered by the more talented Wildcats.
Pick: Villanova
(8)Wisconsin(25-9) vs. (9)Virginia Tech(22-10):
Wisconsin:
Tournament record: 36-21
Tournament appearance: 23rd
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Badgers
Location: Madison, WI
Once again, the Badgers are strong defensively, but the offense leaves much to be desired. Wisconsin returned all five starters from a Sweet Sixteen team last year. They actually had a better regular season record than last year, but earned just an eight seed in this year’s tournament.
Another Sweet Sixteen run looks unlikely from this place in the bracket, but a one seed has failed to last past the first weekend in two of the past three tournaments. It is possible that it happens again, though the Badgers have a much tougher road this year. It’s much easier to advance from the seven line. Number eight seeds are 12-52 against the one seed since the tournament expanded in 1985. Seven seeds are 21-54 against seven seeds.
Virginia Tech:
Tournament record: 6-8
Tournament appearance: 9th
Last appearance: 2007
Mascot: Hokies
Location: Blacksburg, VA
Virginia Tech ended a ten year tournament drought behind big wins over Duke, Virginia, and Michigan. Zach LeDay is a strong post presence, while senior guard Seth Allen leads the charge. The Hokies have five players that average double figures in points, so they can be a tough team to defend.
Virginia Tech doesn’t have a lot of size, so Wisconsin can use that to their advantage. The Badgers start three players 6’8″ or taller, and have another (Charles Thomas IV) guy at that size that plays a lot of minutes. Ultimately, I see Wisconsin’s size being too much for Virginia Tech.
Pick: Wisconsin
(5)Virginia(22-10) vs. UNC-Wilmington(29-5):
Virginia:
Tournament record: 28-20
Tournament appearance: 21st
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Cavaliers
Location: Charlottesville, VA
Once again, the Cavs had trouble putting the ball in the hoop. They averaged just 66.6 points per game, bad enough for 312th in the nation. However, they allowed the least points in the nation at 55.6 per game. A plodding offense and stifling defense are trademarks of this team.
London Perrantes is the leader of this team with Malcolm Brogdon in the NBA this year. Perrantes is the only Hoo to average double digit points per game this year. Virginia isn’t particularly big, but they are so tenacious on the defensive end that they play much bigger than they actually are.
UNC-Wilmington:
Tournament record: 1-5
Tournament appearance: 6th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Seahawks
Location: Wilmington, NC
The Seahawks return three starters, and two bench players that played more than ten minutes in last year’s tournament. Remember them? They gave Duke all they wanted because this team is an excellent shooting team.
Led by seniors Chris Flemmings and Denzel Ingram, the Seahawks averaged 85.2 points per game, good for tenth in the nation. Sophomore big Devontae Cacok shoots a preposterous 80% from the floor and averages nearly ten rebounds per game. Fellow sophomore C.J. Bryce leads the team in scoring after starting as a freshman last year.
UNC-Wilmington has been pegged as a giant killer all season long before we even knew where they would land in the tournament. Virginia can probably slow them down a little, but will it be enough? I doubt it. Most others do too.
Pick: UNC-Wilmington
(4)Florida(24-8) vs. (13)East Tennessee State(27-7):
Florida:
Tournament record: 42-17
Tournament appearance: 20th
Last appearance: 2014
Mascot: Gators
Location: Gainesville, FL
The Gators make a trip back to the tournament three years after losing in the Final Four to eventual champion UConn in 2014. Only PG Kasey Hill played in that game for Florida, so this is a team lacking tournament experience. Their conference slate was marred by three losses to Vanderbilt, including the last game of the season and the first game of the SEC tournament.
They turned a lot of heads when they beat down Kentucky in Gainesville back on February 4th, and were rolling until the calendar hit March. This is a deep team that has seven players who averaged more than 20 minutes per game. Two more averaged more than 12.
The loss of big man John Egbunu leaves a big hole in the middle. The Gators are just 3-3 without him, even though they won the Valentine’s Day game in which he was injured. Kevarrius Hayes is still a strong presence in the middle, though he is not as much of a scorer or rebounder as Egbunu.
East Tennessee State:
Tournament record: 2-10
Tournament appearance: 10th
Last appearance: 2010
Mascot: Buccaneers
Location: Johnson City, TN
The Bucs are a high octane team, averaging 79.9 points per game on the season. Led by do-everything guard T.J. Cromer and a gaggle of other seniors, the Bucs were pegged as another team that could give a higher seed all they wanted. They actually got a pretty good draw in Florida, who now has a big hole in the middle.
East Tennessee State likes to play fast. They have five players that average more than 22 minutes per game, and five more than average more than ten. Their chances of wearing out Florida are pretty slim, however, they shoot well enough to stay in, and possibly win, this game.
I am trying not to let Florida’s destruction of Kentucky sway me here. They looked really good in that game. And this game is in the Gators’ backyard in Orlando. Being Florida is the higher seed here, this is going to be a highly partisan crowd.
Pick: Florida
(6)SMU(30-4) vs. (11)USC(25-9)
SMU
Tournament record: 10-13
Tournament appearance: 12th
Last appearance: 2015
Mascot: Mustangs
Location: Dallas, TX
SMU looks like an underseeded team. Led by Duke transfer Semi Ojeleye, this is a really tough team. The Mustangs have allowed just 59.9 points per game, good for third in the nation. They beat Cincinnati, who is also a six seed, twice this season. They lost to the Bearcats in the Queen City back on January 15th. That was their last loss.
Want to play what if for a moment? Emmanuel Mudiay would be a junior on this SMU team if he had honored his original commitment. Okay, I know this is unrealistic since he would have went pro anyway, but could you imagine him on this team? Sterling Brown is the only starter left from that squad two years ago that lost to UCLA in the first round. Both Ben Emelogu and Ben Moore played in that game as well. They are definitely looking for a win here.
USC:
Tournament record: 12-20
Tournament appearance: 18th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Trojans
Location: Los Angeles, CA
USC managed to take down crosstown rival UCLA in one out of the three tries. They also took down American champion SMU back in November. The Trojans stumbled to the finish with a tough late season schedule, but was still rewarded by the committee for the strength of it.
The return of Bennie Boatwright at the end of the season helped the Trojans. Chimezie Metu has been a force in the interior, while Elijah Stewart and Jordan McLaughlin bother averaged more than 12 points per game again this year.
Boatwright almost single-handedly brought the Trojans back from the abyss against Providence. I was much more confident in this before I watched USC. Now I think SMU is in for trouble.
Pick: SMU
(3)Baylor(25-7) vs. (14)New Mexico State(28-5):
Baylor:
Tournament record: 11-12
Tournament appearance: 11th
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Bears
Location: Waco, TX
Baylor is a stout defensive team, allowing only 62.7 points per game (16th in the nation). They aren’t just bolstered by a rough Big 12(10) record. The Bears beat Oregon, Michigan State, Xavier, and Louisville out of conference this year. They never did take down Kansas, but this is a dangerous team because of their defense.
Johnathan Motley is an accomplished scorer (17.3 points per game) and a great rebounder. Jo Lual-Acuil averages more than two and a half blocks per game, and contests nearly every shot. This is Baylor’s fourth straight NCAA tournament bid, but only Ishmail Wainwright has tasted victory in the NCAA tournament. The Bears have been ousted in the first round in each of the last two years.
New Mexico State:
Tournament record: 10-24
Tournament appearance: 23rd
Last appearance: 2015
Mascot: Aggies
Location: Las Cruces, NM
The Aggies have not won an NCAA tournament game since 1993, a drought that is unlikely to end here. Only Ian Baker started in their last tournament appearance, a 21 point loss to Kansas in which he was 1-10 from the field.
7’2″ Tanveer Bhullar is the tallest player in the field this year, but he hasn’t rounded into the player that older brother Sim did in Las Cruces. The Aggies have good size, but they don’t defend particularly well.
The bad news for them is that Baylor does. I’ve picked Baylor to go to the Sweet Sixteen or farther in each of the last two years. This incarnation of the Bears looks like a better team, so I don’t seem they losing here, at least.
Pick: Baylor
(7)South Carolina(22-10) vs. (10)Marquette(19-12):
South Carolina
Tournament record: 4-9
Tournament appearance: 9th
Last appearance: 2004
Mascot: Gamecocks
Location: Columbia, SC
The Gamecocks have not won a tournament game since reaching the Final Four in 1973. That’s a lot of history to try and get rid of! This may be the year that they do. They took down Michigan and Syracuse early in the season, but stumbled to the finish, losing six of their last ten games.
Sindarius Thornwell is a dynamic scorer, and one of the most exciting players in the tournament. P.J. Dozier and Duane Notice all average double figures in scoring. Lithuanian freshman Maik Kotsar has played pretty well at times this year, but the fact remains that they are inexperienced and facing a pretty good team. All while not playing well.
Marquette
Tournament record: 41-32
Tournament appearance: 32nd
Last appearance: 2013
Mascot: Golden Eagles
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Marquette has won at least two games in each of their last three tournament appearances. This team is not quite built like those. Marquette is a good shooting team from outside (43% from three point range), and average 82.5 points per game. The bad news is that they give up 75.
This team can beat anyone when their shots fall. They took down number seven Creighton and number one Villanova in less than a week back in January. This is a very balanced team. Marquette has seven players that average between 9 and 13 points per game.
South Carolina’s freefall is a bit concerning, and if Marquette hits their shots, the Gamecocks’ drought will continue. Thornwell is going to get his points, but I don’t think South Carolina defends the perimeter well enough here. Take the hot team!
Pick: Marquette
(2)Duke(27-8) vs. Troy(22-14):
Duke
Tournament record: 107-35
Tournament appearance: 41st
Last appearance: 2016
Mascot: Blue Devils
Location: Durham, NC
Here is an interesting tidbit for you: Duke has made the Final Four as many times as they have been eliminated in the first weekend from the number two seed. So that’s why they wanted a one seed! All kidding aside, Duke lost three out of four games twice this season. Those little spurts cost them a one seed, and highlight the fire you are playing with if you pick them for a deep tournament run.
Grayson Allen is the one that gets all of the attention, but it’s mostly for the wrong reasons. The leaders of this team are Luke Kennard and freshman Jayson Tatum. Duke will go as they go. They have a good post presence this year in senior Amile Jefferson. That has been their undoing a couple of times in recent memory.
Troy
Tournament record: 0-1
Tournament appearance: 2nd
Last appearance: 2003
Mascot: Trojans
Location: Troy, AL
Fun fact: A Sun Belt team has won at least one NCAA tournament game in each of the last two years. Last year it was Arkansas-Little Rock. In 2015, it was 14th seeded Georgia State ousting Baylor. Troy has a tougher game as a 15 seed, and a much tougher opponent.
Troy isn’t really a deep team. Jordon Varnado and Wesley Person are about the only accomplished scorers on the team. Only two non-starters average more than ten minutes per game. They are well conditioned, but so is Duke.
On paper, this is a huge mismatch for Troy. They are in a world of trouble. They don’t shoot particularly well from the outside, nor do they have someone in the middle who can change the game.
Pick: Duke
Since we all have to fill out our brackets all the way to the end before we turn them in, here are my picks for the East.
First round winners: Villanova, Wisconsin, UNC-Wilmington, Florida, SMU, Baylor, Marquette, Duke
Second round: Villanova, UNC-Wilmington, SMU, Duke
Regional semifinal: Villanova, SMU
Winner: Villanova
National Semifinals: Villanova, UCLA
Champion: UCLA
Stay tuned for the picks from the rest of the regions and the round by round picks! We also have our daily NBA and NHL picks for you DFS players!