DraftKings NBA Picks March 21
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks March 21
We have eight NBA games tonight, making for one of the busiest Tuesday’s in some time. It was a chaotic weekend, with players sitting after lineups locked. At least is calmed down some yesterday. I know a lot of you are boycotting DraftKings, and I completely understand. Believe me, I have thought about trying my hand at Yahoo. The tournaments are much smaller over there, but at least you can change players up until game start!
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Most of the picks on here will translater over to there. If there is enough demand, I can try to put up a Yahoo lineup as well. I can tell you one thing. If they do this for baseball, I am definitely done!
The money line last night was up to 267.25 DraftKings points. One of my lineups finished well above despite a disaster from Kenneth Faried. I rode Gary Harris, Will Barton, and Richaun Holmes to the cash! THe other was torpedoed by the Golden State game getting out of hand as well as a poor game from Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot. Lesson learned.
The winning lineup was all the way up to 371.75 DraftKings points. This lineup was 12.25 points ahead of second place! He hit right on just about everything from Harris and Holmes to Robert Covington, Rudy Gobert, and Gordon Hayward. Even Thabo Sefalosha was a value!
I can’t stress enough how important it is to watch our Twitter feed right up until lock time. We will try and relay the information out to you as soon as we can, along with any lineup changes. If you aren’t able to do that, my best advice is to lay off of anyone that may be injured. As far as the healthy scratches, we are all in the same boat. The only ones we really have a shot to switch out anymore are the games that tip at or before 7:30 eastern.
If you would like to try DraftKings for the first time, use this link for the referral bonus! It is good for $20 worth of free entry tickets. We have plenty of advice on the site to help you turn that into a solid bankroll!
Point Guards
Best Bets:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,400): Giannis tweaked his ankle a little in Saturday’s game and did not return. That has saddled him with a questionable tag for tonight, and he has a late tip off. Hopefully the news comes out one way or the other early in the day because he destroyed the Blazers for 61.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. If he is in the lineup, you want him in yours!
Damian Lillard ($8,800): Lillard put up 49.25 DraftKings points in the first game against Milwaukee. With Giannis playing down low rather than out front, Lillard should have somewhere around this kind of game. Stephen Curry has struggled against Dallas this year, so if Giannis is out, Lillard is my plan B. He ravaged a solid Miami backcourt for 62.75 DraftKings points on Sunday.
Chris Paul ($8,400): Paul racked up 50.25 DraftKings points in his first game against the Lakers this year. The Lakers have actually been getting worse at defending the point, not better. To say that defense is a work in progress is being too nice. Many point guards have had huge games against them recently. Expect Paul to add his name to that list.
Honorable Mention:
Mike Conley ($7,600): Conley has averaged 40.6 DraftKings points over the last six games. He has been under 40 DraftKings points twice in his last ten. Conley has struggled against the Pelicans, putting up only 53.75 DraftKings points in two games against them this year. However, he is playing very well right now if you want to roll the dice on low ownership.
Ricky Rubio ($7,300): Rubio tagged the Spurs for 61.25 DraftKings points back on March 4th. He has not been under 33 DraftKings points since that time either. Rubio has a high floor right now, and has consistently blown away 5x value. I don’t know why his price isn’t higher, but I’m glad it’s not.
Tyler Ulis ($7,300): Miami is usually tough against point guards, but they haven’t been lately. Ulis has at least 36 DraftKings points in all three of his starts in place of Eric Bledsoe. He seems to have a high floor since two of those games were against Orlando and Detroit, two of the better defenses in the league. Ulis could wind up being a bargain in a tough matchup again tonight.
Dark Horses:
D’Angelo Russell ($6,100): Nick Young may finally find himself out of a job. With Swaggy a late scratch on Sunday, Russell started at shooting guard and racked up 58.5 DraftKings points. He and Jordan Clarkson looked good on the court together, and Russell was much better playing off the ball. He wont dump that many on the Clippers, but 6x value seems likely, if not more.
Malcolm Brogdon ($5,000): All due disrespect to the Lakers, the Blazers are pretty bad against the point in their own right. Brogdon had 25.75 DraftKings points in just 24 minutes against them the first time around. Now he is starting, and seeing minutes in the mid-30’s. Brogdon should hit 6x value at least tonight.
J.J. Barea ($4,100): Beware of high ownership on this one. The Mavs finally turned Barea loose on Sunday, and he responded with 35.25 DraftKings points. He outplayed Yogi Ferrell by a large margin as well. Barea still wont start, but he should play at least 25 minutes, and maybe more if he plays like he did on Sunday.
My picks: Rubio(PG), Russell(G), Brogdon(SG); Antetokounmpo(SF), Paul(PG), Ulis(G), Barea(UTIL)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
DeMar DeRozan ($7,700): DeRozan has cooled off a lot lately, hitting 5x value just once in the last five games. However, he does have 83.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Bulls so far this year. Now with Dwyane Wade out, DeRozan will be getting shots on Paul Zipser. He could break out of his funk in a big way tonight.
Klay Thompson ($7,000): Thompson’s hot shooting continues as he has done a great job picking up for Kevin Durant. He nailed seven threes against the Thunder last night, and picked up six rebounds as well. Dallas is starting to get healthy at guard, but who can really stop Klay right now? I would be surprised if Dallas holds him under 5x value.
Honorable Mention:
Jordan Clarkson ($6,400): Clarkson had another game right around 5x value, but the increase he saw in assists should last with Russell sliding over to shooting guard. Now Laker fans are getting to see the future of this franchise with the starting five all under 25 years of age when Zubac starts. . Russell has far more upside, but Clarkson is about as consistent as they come.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,600): KCP got back on track against Phoenix over the weekend. Now he gets a pretty bad Nets defense in which he put up 34.25 DraftKings points on in the first meeting. He doesn’t always perform in great situations. All you can do is use him and hope for the best. That’s the kind of situation we have here.
Dark Horses:
Josh Richardson ($4,800): Richardson has seen most of the extra minutes with Dion Waiters out, but he hasn’t put up any number that would make DFS players take notice. However, he has a matchup with a Suns team tonight that has been abused on the outside, especially with Devin Booker out. Richardson has high upside tonight, but has not been very consistent.
Denzel Valentine ($4,500): The rookie has had at least 20 DraftKings points in five of his last six games, and posted his first career double-double on Saturday against the Jazz. Yes, that Jazz team that is really good on defense. Toronto is solid as well, but Valentine is proving that he can play in this league. He could come up with solid value once again.
Jarell Eddie ($3,000): Who? Well, he signed a ten day deal with the Suns on Sunday and put up 16.5 DraftKings points in 29 minutes that night against a good Detroit team. That’s how dire the situation is in Phoenix. Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe have been shut down. Devin Booker may be. Leandro Barbosa and Ronnie Price are both nursing injuries. Eddie could see a lot of run again tonight if Price and/or Barbosa can’t play.
My pick: N/A; Valentine(SG)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
Kawhi Leonard ($9,800): Minnesota is the fourth best team against small forwards in the league. Kawhi Leonard doesn’t care. He has 165 DraftKings points in three games against the Wolves this year. Many may look away because of the defensive rating and the possibility of a blowout, but there is value to be had here. Leonard isn’t going to struggle against them now when he hasn’t all year.
Jimmy Butler ($8,900): Butler has racked up 116.5 DraftKings points in just two games against Toronto this year. P.J. Tucker may help defensively, but not enough to keep Butler under 5x value. The only team that has held him under 47 DraftKings points since Wade went down is Memphis, Toronto isn’t there yet defensively.
Honorable Mention:
Harrison Barnes ($6,300): Barnes has 74.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Warriors so far this year. The problem here is that with the Warriors firing on all cylinders, they have been blowing people out. Can Dallas buck that trend? If not, Barnes has no chance of making value.
Marcus Morris ($5,400): Morris racked up 36.5 DraftKings points in Detroit’s first game against Brooklyn this year. Brooklyn isn’t any better now than they were then. They are likely worse without Bojan Bogdanovic. It’s hard to tell just who will abuse the Nets because they are bad at every position, but Morris looks like a good bet to have a pretty good part in it.
Brandon Ingram ($5,000): Ingram has had at least 20 DraftKings points in all but two games over the last ten. One of those he missed by just 0.25 points. He is proving to have a solid floor, and has been picking up the production offensively over the last few games. Just like most of the rest of the team, Ingram’s stock is going up in DFS formats. He has a lot of upside, and isn’t nearly as much of a risk anymore.
Dark Horses:
Solomon Hill ($4,200): Apparently, Hill’s outburst on Thursday with Cousins out wasn’t a fluke. With Cousins back on the court, Hill still played 35 minutes and picked up 33.25 DraftKings points. Using him against Memphis is a bit of a risk, but he only needs 21 DraftKings points to hit 5x value. He should get at least that.
E’Twaun Moore ($3,900): Moore has between 21 and 23 DraftKings points in each of the last four games. You can write down his total in permanent ink lately. There is plenty of room for him in cash games, but he is a good punt option anywhere if you just need solid production from a spot.
Brandon Rush ($3,200): Well, with the injury to Nemanja Bjelica, he is starting in Minnesota again. Rush has almost no upside with Shabazz Muhammad lurking, but Rush is still putting up good defensive numbers that make him a safe punt option. Just don’t expect more than 6x value or so.
My Pick: Morris(SF), Hill(F); Hill(F)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700): Towns has held his own against the Spurs this year, unlike Anthony Davis against Memphis. Towns has 136 DraftKings points in three games against San Antonio, which would put him right at 5x value. Davis has been under against Memphis. I don’t expect the presence of Cousins to change that any.
Blake Griffin ($8,000): Griffin is underpriced tonight. He had a few under par games against Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Utah where he was guarded by Kevin Love, Giannis, and Gobert. He is going to eat Randle alive! Just like he did the Knicks last night.
Honorable Mention:
Draymond Green ($7,800): Green keeps scoring in the 30’s for DraftKings points, but he doesn’t quite get to value. Then he has a game like he did against Philadelphia where he went nuts for 61.25 DraftKings points. He has a solid floor with upside. I guess we just have to leave it at that. He has put up 72 DraftKings points in two games against Dallas this year, so we know what to expect.
James Johnson ($6,300): He saw his minutes increase a little and his production increase a lot with Waiters out on Sunday. Waiters will miss at least the next two weeks, which leaves Johnson as a nice contrarian play until everyone else catches on. He is not your typical power forward, so he should be fine against the Suns.
Tobias Harris ($6,000): The Nets are horrible against power forwards, which is where the Pistons have committed to playing Harris the rest of the season. He picked up 33.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting, but could be in for more tonight. At any right, 5x value seems to be the floor for tonight.
Dark Horses:
Marquese Chriss ($5,600): Chriss has three straight games with at least 5x value, and two of those were against Detroit and Orlando. Miami has locked down the position this year, but Chriss still had 33 DraftKings points against them in 30 minutes in the first meeting. He could approach 6x value tonight.
Gorgui Dieng ($5,000): Dieng is tough to play because his production is not consistent. However, Dieng has 102.25 DraftKings points in three games against the Spurs this year, which has him approaching 7x value. He may even be a safer play than Towns tonight.
Nikola Mirotic ($4,600): Playing Mirotic against the Jazz was a terrible idea, but expecting him to get back on track against Toronto tonight is not entirely off base. Mirotic had 31.25 DraftKings points in the first game against Toronto. If he does that again, he is at about 7.5x value.
My pick: Griffin(PF); Mirotic(PF)
Center
Best Bets:
Hassan Whiteside ($8,500): The only team to hold Whiteside below 39 DraftKings points since the beginning of March is Cleveland, and they did it twice. The Cavs are the top team against centers in the league, so that can be excused. Whomever the Suns throw at Whiteside is going to have his hands full. I don’t expect a huge game from Whiteside, but he should be around 5x value.
Andre Drummond ($7,900): Drummond is back on track after two bad games against Utah and Cleveland. He has 87.5 DraftKings points against Phoenix and Toronto over the last two games. Drummond struggled against the Nets in the first game, but he played just 25 minutes. There is a little bit of risk involved here, but Drummond has the potential to put up a big game.
Honorable Mention:
Marc Gasol ($7,500): Gasol abused the Pelicans in three games this year. He has 158.5 DraftKings points in three games against them. The problem is that Cousins was not with the Pelicans at that time. Gasol has the skill set to still have a good game here, just don’t plan on him putting up numbers like before.
DeAndre Jordan ($7,000): Jordan has 84.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Lakers so far this year. They wont contain him here either. Jordan has beaten up on anyone not named Utah or Memphis in the last couple of weeks. That trend will continue tonight.
Jusuf Nurkic ($6,900): Nurkic has been consistent over the last three games after struggling after his monster game against the Sixers. Milwaukee has struggled against centers as well, so expecting Nurkic to keep up his current pace is reasonable. He should see at least 6x value tonight.
Dark Horses:
Alan Williams ($5,900): Williams has put up good numbers since becoming the starter, even against teams like Detroit. However, his ceiling is in the mid-30’s, which means that 6x value is his cap, and he is only going to hit that in the right matchup. Whiteside is much more dangerous on offense and rebounding, so Williams should have a solid game tonight. Just don’t expect too much.
Robin Lopez ($4,100): Butler has taken on a larger load with Wade out, but so has Robin Lopez. It has turned him into a nightly double-double threat. Toronto is not that great on the interior, so Lopez should continue to produce at a pretty high level for the price range.
My pick: Jordan(C), Nurkic(UTIL); Gasol(C)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, and our picks for NHL and the PGA tour! We even have some EPL picks coming your way! I will also have the round by round picks for the NCAA Tournament, the place where your bracket is never busted. Once again, make sure to follow our Twitter feed leading up to tipoff!