FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – March 21
Welcome to the Tuesday FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for tonight’s eight game slate which kicks off at 7:00PM EST!
As a reminder, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Monday Night’s Winning GPP scores spiked back up to 390.7 which was well above the season average as cash lines across FanDuel were higher than they had been in previous days. Over the first 121 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.0 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Over the first 121 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.0 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Monday Night’s Picks and Pivots line put up a respectable 281.1 FanDuel Points but on a night with a higher cash line, we typically fell around 10 points short of profit. The Westbrook/Harden combination only putting up 90 points ultimately was enough to sink a roster build that was very popular across the industry and winning lineups across DFS avoided that combination entirely!
We are back at it on a Tuesday night with only three games with totals over 215 so the obvious stack games are a bit more difficult to find on this slate but it does not mean we cannot pull out the top plays to build our roster!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Damian Lillard ($9,000) One of the absolute hottest players in the NBA right now, Lillard steps into this match-up with Milwaukee tonight with 40+ FanDuel points in five of his last six games, including a beast 56.7 FD point outing last time on the court!
Portland/Milwaukee has the second highest combined team total on this slate at 216 and Portland has the second highest team total on this slate so I want to ensure I have exposure here tonight. From a roster build perspective, it is interesting that the two late games (this one and LAC/LAL) have the highest team totals so make sure you have late night exposure in the main slate as you will watch people zoom past you in the standings if you choose to stack up the “certainty” of the early games.
Lillard has taken on a massive amount of usage for Portland in recent games with 20+ shot attempts in five of his last seven games. With the Blazers fighting to get into the playoffs I expect Lillard to continue to take on as much of the offensive load as needed to keep one of the hottest teams in the NBA rolling!
Spencer Dinwiddie ($3,500) With Sean Kilpatrick and Joe Harris already ruled out and Jeremy Lin doubtful for tonight, expect Dinwiddie to step into the starting lineup and play major minutes for the Nets at minimum price on FanDuel!
Dinwiddie played 30 minutes in his last game, dropping 31.9 FanDuel points against Dallas which would exceed 9x value at this price point. Dinwiddie not only will get significant minutes but gets an elite match-up with a Pistons team ranked 22nd in DvP to opposing PG’s and faces off against Reggie Jackson who has the worst individual defensive rating of any PG on this slate! For the stone minimum on FanDuel, Dinwiddie makes for the top value play on the board and allows you the ability to spend up on 2-3 studs tonight as a result!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,700) The Pistons get the best DFS match-up that any team can ask for with a game against the Brooklyn Nets and with a weak SG position tonight, KCP is a great way to save salary without sacrificing upside.
KCP typically excels in pace up games and no team sees a bigger pace boost than the Pistons tonight! In this match-up earlier this season, KCP put up 31.4 FanDuel points while racking up 15 points, 7 rebounds and 4 steals and we saw the kind of upside he can provide in his last game as he dropped 37 FanDuel points against the Suns.
Wesley Matthews ($4,500) The shooting guard spot is littered with solid GPP options in this price range and perhaps my favorite of the group is Wesley Matthews who has seen his price drop well over $1k in the last week due to injury but in a massive pace up spot against the Warriors, I think we should look to jump on him here.
Matthews played 36 minutes last game, scoring 25.5 FanDuel points against the Nets so I a feel confident that we can project him for his usual run in the Mavericks back court. The Mavericks see one of the biggest pace increases and projected points bump on this slate, facing a Warriors team playing on the second night of a back to back.
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Kawhi Leonard ($9,400) Of all the players on this slate, the one guy I am locking into my lineup first tonight is Kawhi who feels incredibly under-priced as we can get an elite player under $10k on FanDuel.
Kawhi has absolutely crushed in this spot so far this season with FanDuel point totals of 41, 51 and 66.5 in his three previous outings against Minnesota. In his last game, which was just two weeks ago, he dropped 66.5 FD points on the back of 34 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists and 6 steals! With this game in Minnesota and only a 5 points Vegas spread, I think Kawhi makes for a cash game lock with the GPP upside to be the highest raw point scorer on the night.
T.J. Warren ($6,500) With Eric Bledsoe out for the year and Devin Booker questionable for tonight’s game, the remaining Suns players will see a massive usage bump and although we do not typically want to target players against Miami, the increased usage is simply too good to pass up here.
With Booker out on Sunday, Warren took on an expanded role shooting the ball 16 times, and racking up 34 FanDuel points, which is his third straight game with at least that many FD points! Warren is typically a guy we can lock and load as a mid-range cash game play but with so many Suns sitting on the side line at this point in the year, he has the opportunity for big time DFS performances that put him in play for GPP’s.
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward Picks
Blake Griffin ($9,300) As I mentioned in the open, the Clippers/Lakers game has the highest game total and the Clippers have the highest implied team total on the slate so I think this is a spot you need to have exposure to in GPP play as the late night hammer.
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With the game being at the Lakers, the spread is only 8 points, which takes much of the blow out risk away from this game. The question with the Clippers becomes – where do we want our exposure. With Damian Lillard priced the same as Chris Paul, I am going to ride the hotter hand in Portland and Center is absolutely loaded on this slate so I have a hard time taking DeAndre Jordan over the other options.
That leads us to Blake Griffin, who is coming off perhaps his best game in recent weeks with a 30 points, 43.2 FD point outing against the Knicks last night. The Lakers rank dead last in DvP to opposing PF’s so the match-up simply could not be better and with the salary savings we get from a guy like Spencer Dinwiddie, it allows us to not only pay up for Lillard and Kawhi, but gives us enough room to slot in Griffin at a weak PF position!
James Johnson ($6,400) The Miami Heat are in a tremendous spot tonight with a pace up game against the Suns and with Dion Waiters out again, I love the idea of rolling back out James Johnson who helped carry our team on Sunday with a 48 FD point outing against Portland! The match-up frankly tonight is just as juicy against the Suns who are 26th in DvP to opposing PF’s and with Waiters off the floor, Johnson is dominating the second team usage for the Heat.
Jusuf Nurkic ($6,700) Center is an interesting position tonight as I love guys like Hassan Whiteside and DeMarcus Cousins who are both priced under $9k but it is tough not to take the salary savings and grab a guy like Nurkic who has the same ceiling as the other centers!
Nurkic just seems simply too cheap as he comes into this game with back to back 41 FanDuel point outings which would exceed 6x value at this price point. The Bucks are ranked 20th in DvP to opposing Centers on the year and with the way Nurkic is playing, I love the idea of stacking him with Lillard tonight to maximize my exposure to Portland.
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!