FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – Opening Day
Welcome to the Opening Day FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 1:10PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Over the course of the season, we will track winning Tournament lineup scores and roster construction trends to help you build your winning lineups! Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
What this meant from a daily roster build perspective is that the winning SP salary would sit in the $8,700 range which meant you needed to spend roughly $3,300 for each of the eight hitters in your lineup. Thinking about it from a multiple perspective, that meant you needed to 7.3x value in order to take down a big GPP.
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher
Masahiro Tanaka ($8,700) The most critical decision you will make each day in FanDuel MLB roster construction is which starting pitcher to click on. This year FanDuel has adjusted the pricing to include 4 points for a Quality Start and made wins worth 6 points which in my mind is a better and fairer way to score pitchers so they are not getting burned by their bullpen blowing the win!
As we mentioned in the open, it is important to pay up for your starting pitcher as last year’s results showed that paying roughly $9k per starter was the winning formula across season long GPP play. On Opening Day we really do not have to worry about paying up as the cheapest starting pitcher is $8,700, which coincidentally is also our top GPP SP target on this slate.
The question really comes down to how you want to pay up as Madison Bumgarner is priced at $10,900 and brings an elite DFS ceiling any time he takes the mound. For me however, I am looking to take the $2k discount to Tanaka which will allow me to stack a variety of high-priced hitters while still capturing an elite SP for GPP play.
Tanaka has incredible career numbers against Tampa Bay going 6-0 over 8 starts with a 2.82 ERA and 52 strikeouts over 54 innings pitched. What I love about Tanaka in this spot is the strikeout upside as Tampa Bay struck out over 9 times per game last season which was the third highest mark in MLB.
With this game in Tampa Bay it is worth noting that the numbers get even better for Tanaka when you dig through his career stats in Tropicana Field. Over three starts, Tanaka is 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA, .157 BAA and 17 strikeouts in 20 innings of work.
Tanaka’s career dominance against a weak lineup makes him an elite play for me and the fact that he is the lowest priced pitcher on the slate will give us an edge in building a high upside lineup that those with Bumgarner will not be able to afford!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
If you are new to MLB DFS, the concept of stacking is simple and highly effective – you want to pick multiple players from the same team to maximize your points. Baseball is the sport in my mind that stacking is the most important as you can maximize your points as you get points for a lineup’s hits, runs, RBI’s etc. essentially loading up on what could be one swing of the bat!
According to the article, 83% of winning lineups in 2016 had 2 or more stacks while only 2% of winning lineups went without any stacks.
If you have not read the FanDuel MLB Preview, I would highly recommend it (and you also get a free play) but one of the more interesting statistics it included were how stacking impacted the winning GPP lineups last season.
According to the article, 83% of winning lineups in 2016 had 2 or more stacks while only 2% of winning lineups went without any stacks.
On this slate the clear-cut top stacking option is the defending World Series Champion Chicago Cubs. One of the benefits of paying down to Tanaka is that you get the salary relief to really go hard after this lineup and I intend to build my lineups accordingly.
Anthony Rizzo ($4,100) and Kris Bryant ($4,400) are the two elite hitters on this slate and I am looking to build a stack around them as my core for Opening Day. Batter Versus Pitcher (BVP) is helpful in identifying trends when the sample size is meaningful and in this case it is worth noting that Rizzo has gone 7 for 26 with 3 home runs against Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez.
Outside of the two big Cubs bats, I am looking to roster Ben Zobrist ($3,100) as my second baseman really as a result of the position being so tough to fill on this slate. Outside of Zobrist you can roster Brad Miller (against Tanaka) or you quickly drop into punt territory so I think paying up for Zobrist within a Cubs stack makes the most sense.
Lastly I am looking to lock in Kyle Schwarber ($3,400) who is finally healthy and provides massive home run upside in the heart of this stacked Cubs lineup. The price point on Schwarber is reasonable now but I would expect it to quickly climb as he has incredible GPP upside and should be primed for a huge year now that he is healthy!
Outside of Chicago, I am looking to build my secondary stack around the San Francisco Giants as I believe Zack Greinke is one of the best pitchers to target hitters against on this slate. Greinke was dreadful last year, pitching to a 4.37 ERA on the season and was even worse at home, pitching to a 4.81 ERA in Arizona with a .275 BAA.
The Giants are a highly cost-effective stacking option and they get a tremendous ballpark boost in Arizona so I am happy to build around Buster Posey ($3,300), Hunter Pence ($2,500), Denard Span ($2,800) and Brandon Crawford ($2,400). We will have to wait for an official lineup but the projected lineup for the Giants would allow us to stack the 1,3,4 and 5 hitters in the lineup for $2.75k per player which fits in perfectly as a compliment to a high-priced Cubs stack!
FanDuel MLB – Opening Day GPP Lineup
More from FanSided
- Yankees: Luis Severino has blunt assessment of another miserable outing
- Bills: 3 2023 roster holes that could cost Josh Allen a Super Bowl
- Colts RB Jonathan Taylor shoots down rumors of troubling injury
- MLB Rumors: Favorite to trade for Justin Verlander emerges and it’s not the Astros
- NY Mets should disband franchise if nightmare Justin Verlander report becomes reality
SP: Masahiro Tanaka ($8,700)
C: Buster Posey ($3,300)
1B: Anthony Rizzo ($4,100)
2B: Ben Zobrist ($3,100)
SS: Brandon Crawford ($2,400)
3B: Kris Bryant ($4,400)
OF: Kyle Schwarber ($3,400)
OF: Denard Span ($2,800)
OF: Hunter Pence ($2,500)
Remaining Salary: $300
Overall this short three game slate seems pretty cut and dry to me and as paying up for the Cubs high-priced hitters will be key and I think grabbing Tanaka at SP gives you the upside to match Bumgarner at a significant price discount. Bumgarner saw his ERA spike 1.2 runs to a very pedestrian 3.39 when on the road last season so if there was ever a spot to fade him, I believe that the elite hitting environment in Arizona with a stacked lineup is the spot to do so!
Next: Opening Day MLB DFS Pitching Breakdown
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests today and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!