FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – April 17
Welcome to the Monday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 7:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Sunday’s winning GPP score landed right at our season long average of 240 FanDuel points as Bryce Harper‘s 2 home run 50 point day was the key to finishing above the cash line! Over the first 18 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 241.7 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 18 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 241.7 points.
Sunday’s Picks and Pivots ended up right at 113 FanDuel points, below the cash line in all formats as the Cubs/Indians stacks could only muster 1 run each! Drew Pomeranz flashed his strikeout upside with 10 strikeouts but gave up 5 ER and could not survive past the 5th inning against the Rays. The late pivot to the Red Sox duo of Mookie Betts/Andrew Benintendi delivered with 45 FD points between them but it was not enough to get us into the green for the day!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks
Well if there was ever the perfect GPP slate – this is it! The pitching options across the board are limited and only two teams on the main slate have run projections above 4.5 runs it should be a great day to mix and match our tournament lineups!
The two top end SP’s on this slate Danny Salazar ($9,800) and John Lackey ($9,600) will likely be popular due to their relative “safety” but there are red flags for both that lead me away from them today. Salazar has elite strikeout stuff but he faces a Twins team that only strikes out 20% of the time versus RHP and sees their walk rate increase to nearly 13% this season which could spell trouble for a wild pitcher like Salazar. The Twins have also mashed Salazar in his career as Salazar has the highest career ERA versus any team he has faced more than 3 times against the Twins (4.80).
Lackey has seen his career reborn in Chicago and has become apparently an elite strike out arm now with 17k’s over his first two starts of the season! The Brewers have the highest strikeout rate of any team on the slate but keep in mind that this season they are striking out at 5% less against RHP than against LHP and if John Lackey is going to be chalk, I am fine looking elsewhere!
Jharel Cotton ($7,000) After watching Cotton’s last start against the Royals where he struck out 6 batters over 7 innings I turned to the MLB network and watched Pedro Martinez break down his delivery. All the way down to the #45 jersey, Cotton has an eerily similar deliver to Pedro and he has the clear swing and miss stuff that made him a top prospect.
Cotton was routinely putting up 30% + K rates in the minor leagues and gets to pitch at home today where he pitched to a 1.40 ERA over 19+ innings last season. Cotton has elite strike out stuff, is able to limit hard contact (less than 30%) and has exceptional control with a 5% walk rate.
The match-up with the Rangers is not one we normally want to pick on but Cotton is a solid home favorite who will likely be overlooked who just dropped a 50 burger on a similarly tough Royals lineup so I am going to have some exposure here today!
Jordan Montgomery ($6,600) The Yankees rookie takes the hill today against the Chicago White Sox after striking out seven in his opening start of the 2017 season. If you did not pay attention over the weekend, here are the last two starting pitchers against the White Sox:
- Ervin Santana – 8 strikeouts, 0 ER and 61 FanDuel Points
- Hector Santiago – 6 strikeouts, 0 ER and 43 FanDuel Points
Right now the White Sox are an offense we can attack with even mediocre starting pitching and with the K upside that Montgomery has, he makes for my favorite GPP play of the night! Montgomery is a solid home favorite similar to Cotton and I plan to mix and match these two starting pitchers across my GPP rosters today while letting the rest of the field chase the “safe” high-priced arms.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
As I mentioned earlier, this slate only has two teams with run projections above 4.5 and with none above 4.7 this is a spot to roll out 2-3 mini-stacks in your rosters as opposed to 1-2 all in stacks!
Cleveland Indians: The Indians take on Kyle Gibson today who has a mediocre 15% k rate, gives up 1.2 HR/9 and a 32% hard hit rate to left-handed batters so I will be looking to lock in guys like Francisco Lindor ($4,100) and Michael Brantley ($3,700).
Lindor is the top dog at SS, averaging over 3 points per game higher than the next closest player on the slate and with the SP salary savings we have today we can afford to pay up for his high floor/high ceiling combination!
Gibson surrenders a hard hit rate and home run just slightly less to right-handed hitters but this is a spot where the Indians have one of the highest run totals on the day so adding a guy like Edwin Encarnacion ($3,400) to a full team stack is certainly in play!
Houston Astros: The Astros take on Jesse Chavez today and they are back int heir home ball park which puts them on my radar as one of the top hitting spots of the day!
Chavez is a reverse splits pitcher who gives up 1.7 HR/9 and 35% hard contact to right-handed bats which sets up perfectly for Houston as we can deploy Jose Altuve ($4,100) and George Springer ($4,300) as a high upside mini-stack!
Oakland A’s: The A’s get one of the sneakiest match-ups on the board as they take on A.J. Griffin who has surrendered over 2 HR/9 last season and gives up a 40% + hard contact rate with hitters from both sides of the plate mashing him!
Khris Davis ($3,400) comes into this game red-hot with a .340 average and 6 home runs already this season with home runs in three of his last five games. Stephen Vogt ($2,800) should bat right behind Davis today and faced a pitcher who gave up 44% hard contact to LHB last season so a mini-stack in the middle of the Oakland order today could reap big time rewards!
Trevor Plouffe ($2,600) has been inserted into the #2 spot ahead of these guys and responded with back to back days with home runs and makes for a cost-effective play as part of a A’s stack!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP Lineup and Slate Overview
P: Jordan Montgomery ($6,600) and Jharel Cotton ($7,000)
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C: Steven Vogt ($2,800)
1B: Edwin Encarnacion ($3,400)
2B: Jose Altuve ($4,100)
3B: Trevor Plouffe ($2,600)
SS: Francisco Lindor ($4,100)
OF: George Springer ($4,300)
OF: Michael Brantley ($3,700)
OF: Khris Davis ($3,400)
Slate Overview: Without any real “stand out” SP’s and no obvious stacking spots from a Vegas total perspective, this is a great day for GPP’s as we can mix and match across a variety of combinations!
I plan to pay down at SP with high upside K arms like Cotton and Montgomery and can afford to load up on multiple high-priced bats that those paying up for Salazar/Lackey will not be able to do. The Indians/A’s and Astros have three of the five highest run totals on the board so they make for a great stacking core on this slate!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests today and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!