DraftKings Early MLB Picks For April 30
Ten of the 15 games are in the early DraftKings tournaments today. Most of the aces are in play this afternoon, giving it the most action. Who is worth paying for? Will there be more rainouts? Let’s check out some stats!
The money line was down in the early slate to 113.55. Neither of my stacks worked out. The Yankees did well, but the five I rostered did not. Go figure.
The winning lineup was lower at 207.85, but that was still 19.25 DraftKings points above second place. That is the second straight game with a huge gap at the top .The winning lineup had double digits from everyone, including huge games from Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner (who had no homers or RBI prior to this game, by the way), and Michael Pineda.
NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
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P: Noah Syndergaard ($11,400): This just in: Thor doesn’t do MRI’s. Big surprise there. Let’s hope he knows his body well enough to discern that. Using Syndergaard today is a bit of a risk because of the biceps, but he has held the Nationals to a .224 average in 98 at bats with a homer, eight runs, and a staggering 31 strikeouts. This lineup has great potential, but it could also finish in the bottom 100. I realize this, so please don’t ride me too hard when it fails.
P: Aaron Sanchez ($8,000): Sanchez will be on an undisclosed pitch count, which hampers his fantasy value. That said, I am guessing that it’s at least 80, which is plenty of time for him to blow through five innings against the Rays. Tampa is hitting a pathetic .155 with a .199 wOBA in 84 at bats with only one homer, five runs, and a staggering 24 strikeouts. Those aren’t just good numbers, those are dominant. Sanchez will be brilliant while he is in there.
C: Salvador Perez ($3,300): Perez is only 4-19(.211) against Phil Hughes, but he has a walk, two doubles, two runs scored, and a RBI. Those aren’t great numbers, but with a lot of backups starting this afternoon, I will go with a sure starter. And, you know, I’m a Twins fan. I don’t trust Phil Hughes at all.
1B: Kendrys Morales ($3,600): I’m a little torn on this one. Toronto’s offense hasn’t been very good, and Chris Archer is one of the highest priced pitchers on the board. However, Toronto has thrashed him so far, and Morales is a big part of that. I am already taking a couple of big risks in this lineup, so screw it. Let’s stack Blue jays! Morales is where I start. He is 11-19(.579) with a walk, three doubles, two homers, four runs scored, six RBI, and a scorching .693 wOBA. You don’t see stats like this very often!
2B: Robinson Cano ($5,200): Cano is 7-17(.412) with three doubles, two homers, four runs scored, and five RBI against Tomlin. This game looks to be even more high scoring than Yankees-Orioles this afternoon. A stack for either team may not be a bad idea.
3B: Kyle Seager ($4,900): Seager is 6-12 with five doubles, two runs scored, and a RBI agianst Josh Tomlin. The Mariners have hit Tomlin hard, and it all starts with Seager. It’s only a matter of time before he gets more than a double off of him.
SS: Alcides Escobar ($3,200): Escobar is only 6-21(.286) off of Hughes, but he has a walk, a double, a homer, three runs scored, two RBI, and two steals against Hughes. He would be more valuable if the Royals move him up in the order, but for this price, I will take the shot on some crooked numbers from Alcides today.
OF: Jose Bautista ($4,400): Bautista’s slow start is a legitimate cause for concern since it has lasted a month. He is only 8-44(.182) against Chris Archer, but he has eight walks, three homers, nine runs scored, and eight RBI against him. There isn’t another pitcher that I want to pay up for, so I will chase those homers.
OF: Avisail Garcia ($3,200): Garcia is 4-6 with a homer, two runs scored, and two RBI against Jordan Zimmerman. Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, and Cody Asche all have good career numbers against Zimmerman as well. The team is hitting .348 as a whole. Garcia isn’t the only player that could have a big afternoon in this game.
OF: Steve Pearce ($2,700): Pearce is hitting a pathetic .176 this year, but he is 3-11 in his career with a double, two homers, and four RBI against Archer. This is an all-or-nothing lineup, and I’m oaky with that. It’s kind of the point of a GPP, right?
P: Dallas Keuchel ($9,400): To me, Keuchel is the clear top pitching option of the afternoon. I have seen PCL lineups better than the A’s right now with the exception of Khris Davis (who is 1-9 against Keuchel, for the record). The A’s are hitting just .236 with a homer and seven runs in 89 at bats off of Keuchel with 17 strikeouts. The A’s have a better chance at getting to Keuchel in Houston, but he has been nothing short of brilliant this year. He is 4-0 with a 1.22 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 27 strikeouts in 37 innings.
P: Miguel Gonzalez ($7,100): Gonzalez could be a bargain here. He was a top prospect with the Orioles organization once upon a time, and we are seeing why right now. He is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 20 strikeouts in 27 innings over four starts. The Tigers have hit him pretty well so far, but Jordan Zimmerman has been knocked around for a 6.35 ERA this year. I’m flipping the past stats, and going with the hot hand against the struggling pitcher. Gonzalez has great win potential today.
C: Brian McCann ($3,600): I will move to Evan Gattis if McCann doesn’t start at DH, but I would prefer McCann. He is 2-5 with a walk, a homer, two runs scored, and two RBI against Jesse Hahn. Hahn has given up three round trippers in just 40 at bats to the current Astros, so there is potential with Astros hitters too.
1B: Freddie Freeman ($5,300): Freeman is only 5-17(.294) against Matt Garza, but he has three walks, a double, a homer, three runs scored, and a pair of RBI off of him. This is another game with a lot of scoring potential. Many are going to be on Freeman’s counterpart, Eric Thames, but I will go with the pivot to Freeman. The Braves could have a field day against Garza.
2B: Neil Walker ($3,700): Walker is 2-5 with a homer, two runs scored, and two RBI against Joe Ross. Ross has great potential going forward, but I don’t know if I would start anyone against the Mets right now. They knocked around both Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer, both of whom are top 10 pitchers in the National League.
3B: Jose Ramirez ($4,500): Ramirez leads the American League with 20 RBI, and is hitting .337 with six homers. He is also going against Chase De Jong? Who? Exactly. Fire up Ramirez today. He isn’t the only Cleveland hitter capable of having a big day, but he’s my favorite, followed by Francisco Lindor.
OF: Carlos Beltran ($3,600): Beltran is 2-6 with a homer and two driven in against Hahn. I have a couple of mini stacks in this lineup. There are so many good options that I am trying to get exposure to three or four different games. This doesn’t always work, but it can be an effective way to finish in the money.
OF: Adam Duvall ($4,100): Duvall has slugged two homers and driven in a whopping eight runs against Mike Leake already in his career. He is 5-16 with two walks overall. If Leake gives up runs, you can bet that Duvall and Hamilton will be involved. This is the only afternoon game threatened by rain. Hopefully they get it in so I can see if my Reds stack works!
OF: Billy Hamilton ($4,000): Hamilton is an impressive 7-11(.636) with a walk, a solo homer, and three runs scored against Mike Leake. And we all know that if Hamilton is on base that much that he is causing problems for someone. He also has three steals.
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our NBA, PGA, and EPL picks!