MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus May 5

Welcome back to the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column, the Friday, May 5th Edition. Happy Cinco de Mayo! For tonight’s games, we’ll continue to peg top pitching plays, mid-range salary options, sneaky pick, and cheap value. Also, as we always do, we’ll discuss pitchers to avoid in your lineup, or focus on for hitting. Evaluating daily pitching is a crucial part to building your MLB FanDuel lineup for a big pay-day.

We took the day off yesterday, with some nasty match ups and weather-related postponement threats. There are still several weather-related threats today, with four games possibly getting postponed and five potential delays. So keep your eyes on the MLB scheduling updates, follow us on twitter, and make sure you have backup options for each of your lineup picks.

Tonight, we have another full slate of 15 games, or 30 pitchers to review. We’re going to narrow our search down to three games for pitchers we like in our lineup, and two games of pitchers to target for hitting. Here’s a look at the list of games we’ve narrowed our search down to:

WSH Stephen Strasburg at PHI Nick Pivetta (7:05pm ET)

CHW Miguel González at BAL Wade Miley (7:05pm ET)

ARZ Zack Greinke at COL German Márquez (8:40pm ET)

TEX Yu Darvish at SEA Yovani Gallardo (10:10pm ET)

LAD Kenta Maeda at SD J Chacin (10:10pm ET)

Let’s start by looking at our top scoring, but also more expensive, MLB FanDuel pitcher for Friday night…

Next: Top Scoring Pitcher

Top Scoring MLB FanDuel Pitcher

Dallas Keuchel ($10,700) is an attractive, and likely chalky, option tonight. Keuchel is looking like his Cy Young self from two years ago, starting the season 5-0 with a rock-bottom 1.21 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. But Mike Trout (OF-$4,800) and Albert Pujols (1B-$2,800) have a great history against Keuchel, which leads me to pause when considering playing him. However, Trout is battling a hamstring issue and my take another night off, and L.A. should be a poor hitting environment tonight, so Keuchel may continue to roll. Still, he’s chalky and there’s risk here.

Yu Darvish ($10,600) has had mixed results so far this season, and has historically struggled against several of the Mariners hitters in the past, especially Seager. So he’s another one I’m fading tonight.

And with Salazar getting knocked around to start the season, also with a bad matchup, we turn our attention to Stephen Strasburg ($10,400). One caveat about Strasburg before we dig further, there’s a 25% chance the Nats versus Phillies game is postponed, so keep checking for updates to today’s MLB schedule, and we’ll keep you updated on twitter @fantasycpr.

Strasburg has one of the best BvP stats against the opposing team, heading into tonight’s match ups. In 131 plate appearances, the Phillies are only hitting .206 with a .262 OBP, and .336 slugging average. Also, Stephen has already seen the Phillies twice this year, and while he gave up five hits, a few walks, and two to three runs each game, he also had eight strikeouts in each game along with a quality start. Stras was able to pile up 40 and 43 MLB FanDuel points over the two games, and has a shot at another 40-50 tonight.

Next: Top Mid-Range Pitcher

Mid-Range Salary Value

Below Strasburg and Salazar, there are several intriguing possibilities at pitcher tonight. But as you dig through the match up of each of the pitchers, even the juicy hot daily fantasy baseball options like Triggs aren’t appealing.

I skipped over Kenta Maeda ($8,400) several times in my research because he’s struggling to keep his fastball on the right side of the fence. Maeda has an ugly 20.0% HR/FB ratio, and is walking at least two batters every nine innings leading to an almost 7.00 ERA. We saw this a few times last year, but he was mostly more controlled. So it’s very possible Kenta has been struggling to get into his mid-season form.

That appeared to be the case against the Phillies last Friday, as he pitched seven innings, gave up two runs on five hits and a walk, but had eight strikeouts, and a quality start for 49 MLB FanDuel points. Maeda will likely continue to roll tonight under the radar, making him a sneaky pick for the day as well. Against the Padres, Kenta is only giving up a .214 average, and even better .262 OBP. He’s also only given up two home runs in 56 AB’s against the Padres. Combined those stats with the fact that he’s pitching in a hitter-enemy park in San Diego, and we realize Maeda is a really great option tonight, with a reasonable mid-range salary.

Next: Pitching Value

Pitching Value

I don’t love any one pitcher in the lower salary range list. Most of these pitchers are the guys I’m going to target for hitting tonight. But I keep coming back to Yovani Gallardo ($6,200), and he’s warming up to me as a solid value option tonight.

The Rangers aren’t a batting lineup I typically like to target. But the Texas lineup has performed poorly on the road, and their offensive value has plummeted to 19th in MLB. Also, against Gallardo, the Rangers are only hitting .250 with a .355 OBP. The OBP is concerning, because Yovani’s problem this season has been walks. He’s giving up three to four walks every nine innings. But, over the last three games, Gallardo only gave up four walks combined.

Yovani had a rough start to the season, scoring only 18, 9, and 15 MLB FanDuel points in his first three starts. But since then, he’s improving, with 47 MLB FanDuel points against the A’s and 27 points against a good Indians ball club. Tonight, if Gallardo can keep the walk ratio at a one or two man level, he’s got the potential to produce 40-50 MLB FanDuel points on a very cheap $6.2K salary.

Next: Offensive Pitching Target

Offensive Pitching Target

We’re targeting three pitchers tonight for hitting stacks; Diamondbacks vs. German Márquez and White Sox vs. Wade Miley

While we should continue to target hot-hitting lineups like the Nationals and Yankees today, there are a few lineups beginning to rise in offensive value over the past two weeks, like the Braves and the Diamondbacks. The D-Backs started the season hot, cooled off, then started to smoke again. They’re coming from a topsy-turvy performance in Washington, but should bounce back nicely in Colorado.

I expect less from the D-Backs in Colorado than we saw from the Nats in April, which was a massive offensive performance. But the Diamonbacks are facing a struggling Marquez tonight, who does have a decent history against the Diamondbacks, a .250 batting average, .300 OBP, and .321 slugging average.

But this is an improved D-Backs team and I don’t expect German’s 7.00 ERA to improve on Friday night. So target Paul Goldschmidt (1B – $5,200), Chris Owings ($4,200), AJ Pollock ($4,900), and Yasmany Tomas ($4,300). They are all incredibly expensive, so you’re probably only going to be able to play one or two. But I think the price may help avoid them from becoming chalky.

Finally, we also love the White Sox in Baltimore tonight. The O’s are the better team, and Miley is having a decent season, but the White Sox are hitting .362 against the lefty-hander, along with a .443 OBP, and .565 slugging average. Those are some juicy hitting stats!

Geovany Soto ($2,400) is the best target against Miley and is a great value tonight. Todd Frazier ($3,700) and Melky Cabrera ($3,100) are the two other better options against Miley. Keep an eye on Frazier’s status, he’s day-to-day, but if he plays he’s a great value at 3B.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Always check MLB lineups throughout the day when playing MLB FanDuel. You can typically find starting pitchers a few days, or day before, each game. But as the season progresses, pitchers develop injuries, sometimes only hours, or less, before a game. So always stay tuned for changes before locking in your lineup. Also, weather events can cancel a game, crushing your entire lineup. So it’s important to become a weather geek, like me, if you want to stack that cash in MLB FanDuel.

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