Welcome to the Friday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 7:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Thursday’s winning GPP scores were below our season average as it took 247.4 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 37 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 257.1 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 37 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 257.1 points.
Thursday’s Early Slate Picks and Pivots lineup went over 200 FanDuel points as our line-up built around Max Scherzer (61 FD points) and a Houston/Oakland stack finished well above the cash line in all formats. Amazingly, Scherzer was only 30-40% owned on this slate – a reminder that we do not need to be contrarian for the sake of being contrarian. If you find a hands down best play, just play it!
The Main Slate Picks and Pivots line-up continued our successful day with 168.4 FanDuel points as Ariel Miranda was able to put up 40 FD points against a Trout-less Angels lineup and the Baltimore bats (Manny Machado/Seth Smith) went off for 34+ FD points each!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks
Dallas Keuchel ($10,700) versus Angels: Looking over this slate we have a game in Coors Field and a variety of high-priced pitchers to choose from so it will be interesting to see how most players approach their roster build today.
Keuchel sits at the top of the pricing pool and I actually think he makes for a contrarian play on this slate as most players will look to jam in high-priced bats and simply overlook the Astros ace.
A quick aside – one thing I do each day when building my rosters is I take 5-10 minutes to look over the slate and then build a gut reaction line-up. What I find with that line-up is it tends to be more on the “chalk” side of ownership which tells me this that most players are going with their initial gut reaction when building their line-up.
The reason I bring this up today is that my gut reaction was to gloss right over Dallas Keuchel and pivot down to Chris Archer ($9,700) who gets a home match-up against Toronto and then I could use the $1k salary savings on high-priced bats!
The more I look at this slate the more I think this will be a roster decision that is highly popular but why are we so quick to dismiss Keuchel as an ace? Keuchel comes into this game with 7+ innings pitched in every single start this year with 6 straight quality starts and 7 or more strikeouts in half of those outings.
Keuchel has put up 43 or more FanDuel points in 5 of his 6 starts this season which includes a 46 point, 7 inning, 7 strikeout performance against the very same Angels team he takes on today! We saw last night that without Mike Trout in the Angels line-up there is simply no hitters we should be overly concerned with and the PvB numbers suggest that Trout is the one land-mine that Keuchel must navigate through.
In 104 career at-bats against the Angels (outside of Trout), the Angels batters are hitting .230 and striking out 26% of the time!
Keuchel has essentially been a lock for 45 FanDuel points each time he takes the mound this year and with so many players looking to force in Coors Field bats, I expect they will balk at the price for Keuchel who is officially back to being the dominant pitcher we saw in seasons past!
If you are looking for a pivot option off Keuchel tonight then check out Matt Rogers FanDuel Starting Pitcher breakdown where he gives you the best options across each pricing tier each day!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
Coors Field: Coors Field is on the slate with an inflated 10.5 projected run total and a bunch of inflated prices for the hitters involved. I get the appeal but if you are a return reader for Picks and Pivots you will know I am 100% behind the “Fade Coors” roster approach in DFS tournaments so I will not be rushing to jam in a bunch of over-priced hitters especially in the first game of the series which this season has been under-performing relative to expectations!
Baltimore Orioles versus RHP Miguel Gonzalez: The Orioles bat will face off in Camden Yards with a pitcher who spent four years in Baltimore and is not toeing the rubber for the White Sox in Miguel Gonzalez.
Gonzalez is a low strike-out, fly ball pitcher who not surprisingly struggled during his time in Baltimore with a 4 ERA and 1.3 WHIP.
If you have been following me the last few days you will know I have been a big fan of the Orioles bats not only because of their talent level but their prices are simply too cheap and they makes for a perfect 1-4 stack even when paying up at starting pitcher!
Manny Machado ($3,600) is red-hot with home runs in three of his last four games can easily be paired with Chris Davis ($3,300) and Adam Jones ($3,000) for a high-upside cost-effective power stack. Do not overlook Seth Smith ($2,700) who will likely hit lead-off again tonight for Baltimore and is coming off a 4-4, 37.4 FanDuel point outing last night!
Texas Rangers versus Yovani Gallardo: Another team you will not be shocked to see me go after as the Rangers bats have been one of my favorite targets over the last few days as the prices remain very fair as the rest of the hitting prices across FanDuel have really spiked!
Gallardo is a pitcher with a sub 20% K rate who has a history of control issues as we saw last year with his 11% walk rate! Gallardo has given up 4 ER in three of his last four starts so this is a spot where the Rangers could put up crooked numbers very quickly if Gallardo is putting guys on base with free passes!
The Rangers make for a great stack as well as you can lock in the 2-3-4 hitters with Rougned Odor ($3,000), Nomar Mazara ($3,300) and Elvis Andrus ($3,000) and will likely be over-looked as they typically are especially with Coors Field being the spot where everyone goes tonight!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP Lineup and Slate Overview:
P: Dallas Keuchel ($10,700)
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C: Derek Norris ($2,400)
1B: Chris Davis ($3,300)
2B: Rougned Odor ($3,000)
3B: Manny Machado ($3,600)
SS: Elvis Andrus ($3,000)
OF: Nomar Mazara ($3,300)
OF: Adam Jones ($3,000)
OF: Seth Smith ($2,700)
Slate Overview: First off – watch the weather today! There are a ton of dicey spots to keep an eye on today with cold temperatures and rain expected in multiple ball parks!
Today is a day where I think the masses will run towards Coors Field (specifically the Arizona bats) and we will see a ton of ownership/buzz around Chris Archer. If we can find ways to differentiate our lineups today we could really set ourselves apart in GPP’s and I think paying up for Dallas Keuchel and stacking the Orioles/Rangers bats is one roster build that gives you similar upside at a significantly lower ownership!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late-breaking line-up news and roster updates!
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