Indians: Josh Tomlin recent starts increasing fantasy value

The top of the Indians rotation is solid but No. 3 starter Josh Tomlin is pitching well in his last two starts. In deeper leagues, he’s worth a look.

The Cleveland Indians aren’t off to the same start as last year. The offense looks good and the top of the rotation is holding it together while we wait for their No. 2 starter, Corey Kluber, to return from injury.

In the meantime, their current No. 3 starter is pitching well. Josh Tomlin has two straight quality starts and with a good matchup on May 17, he’s worth an add in deeper leagues.

Tomlin didn’t start the season on the best foot. In his first five starts, 23.1 innings, he gave up 38 hits, 23 runs and .369 opposing batting average. In those starts, though, he only walked three and struck out 17. Tomlin’s control looked good but batters were hitting almost everything in the zone.

His ERA was up to 8.87 in that span. He did have two quality starts, but they were the bare minimum for a QS.

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Tomlin’s first two starts in May have been the complete opposite. He has combined for 15 innings, two earned runs, nine hits, one walk and 10 strikeouts. Opposing batters hit .176 in those two games.

Granted, those starts were against the Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins, two of the poorer hitting teams in the leagues. The Royals are hitting .221 and Twins have a .241 average. Tomlin lowered the hit rate against him and still isn’t allowing many free passes, just one in his last two games.

Tomlin’s next start will be at home against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are also not hitting well this season, .239/.322/.403 line. Tomlin may be getting lucky with how the rotation plays out with the Indians schedule.

This season, Tomlin is keeping the ball on the ground at a 50 percent slip. He’s giving up line drives and home runs at 25 percent each. His HR/FB rate is also down five percent from last season at 12.5 percent.

The negative is that opposing batters are making good contact with the ball. As if the 38 hits allowed in his first five starts aren’t bad enough, batters are hitting a combined 89.2 percent medium and hard hit rates.

With only a 7.0 swinging strike percentage, opposing batters are waiting for the right pitch. He has a 90.8 contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone. These stats are including the poor April Tomlin had, though.

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Despite what the sabermetrics say, Tomlin is worth the add in deeper leagues or for owners with a few pitching injuries. The Rays lead the league with 400 strikeouts. If Tomlin can keep his pitches low and away, he and the Indians should be able to pick up this win.