MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus June 13
By Matt Rogers
Welcome back to the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column. This is the Tuesday, June 13th edition. We’ll review the top pitching plays of the day, value picks, and stacking options for your FanDuel lineups.
Tuesday night has a full slate of 15 games, providing a long list of 30 pitchers to pick through. Fortunately, tonight also has several great match ups and pitching options. With so many intriguing options, we should see ownership spread across the pitching patch, more than we’ve seen lately, giving us better odds at GGP and cash winnings.
We’re going to identify our top pitching play of the day, its bold, visit the most expensive/chalky option, pick a mid-salary range option, and sleeper pick. We’re also going to identify the list of pitchers we should all be targeting for stacking options for the hitting part of the lineup. Here’s a look at the games we’re targeting:
ATL R.A. Dickey at WSH Joe Ross (7:05pm ET)
PHI Ben Lively at BOS David Price (7:10pm ET)
OAK Jharel Cotton at MIA Jose Ureña (7:10pm ET)
ARZ Zack Greinke at DET Buck Farmer (7:10pm ET)
LAD Clayton Kershaw at CLE Trevor Bauer (7:10pm ET)
SEA Christian Bergman at MIN Kyle Gibson (8:10pm ET)
MIL Jimmy Nelson at STL Marco Gonzales (8:15pm ET)
We’ll start with the top pitching play of the day…
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play
I can feel some eyes rolling with this pick already. Buck Farmer ($6,700) has been a risky MLB FanDuel darling over his first two starts of the season. On May 27th, Buck piled up eleven strikeouts, a QS and win over the White Sox, in Chicago, and totaled 62 MLB FanDuel points. Few were brave enough to take a chance on Farmer for his first start. But those who did had a great night.
By June 6th, word was out that Farmer was starting in Detroit against a struggling Angels lineup, coming off an incredible 62 point game in late May. Farmer’s DFS popularity inflated in just a week, but he didn’t disappoint with a 45 MLB FanDuel performance on a cheap salary.
At some point, Buck’s going to hit a wall and many likely think it’s tonight. But before you fade Farmer, let’s take a look at the D-Backs offense against right-handed pitchers outside of Chase Field. Yes, Arizona has one of the best lineups in baseball, but they’re also playing in one of the more hitter friendly parks when home. When away from home against righties, things are different.
Against RHP’s away from Arizona, the D-Backs have a 83 wRC+, 20th in baseball. The Diamondbacks also have a high 24.7% K rate against RHP’s away from home, and intriguing statistic considering Farmer’s 34.8% strikeout rate, or 11 per nine innings. We only have 13 innings of pitching history from Buck so far this year, but he’s yet to give up an earned run and has a 2.75 SIERA, the lowest among all starting pitchers tonight, including Kershaw.
Farmer may still be popular in the MLB FanDuel community, but the match up will lower his ownership tonight, and he’s still a fantastic value. I’m riding Farmer until he disappoints me. Now let’s take a look at the chalky and expensive option tonight…
Expensive ‘Chalky’ MLB FanDuel Pitching
I’m not going to argue against playing Clayton Kershaw ($12,500) in your lineups, but if you’re playing him, you should target cash games and avoid Kershaw in GPP. Clayton has a 2.98 SIERA, just below Farmer, but Kershaw’s SIERA dominance has been long-standing, and anyone who mildly follows baseball knows he’s the best pitcher in the game right now. Clayton’s ownership could hover around 20%, even with a crowded list of great pitching options tonight.
Against south-paws like Kershaw at home in Cleveland, the Indians have a low 80 wRC+, 23rd in baseball. But the Indians have kept their K ratio down to a decent 18.9% in this scenario. So while we’ve seen Clayton land in the low-to-mid 60’s MLB FanDuel point range several times this season, he’s likely going to be in the low-to-mid 50’s tonight, which is only a mildly decent return for $12.5K, almost twice Farmer’s salary.
Kershaw is a solid chalky cash game play tonight, limiting your hitting options. But Clayton is a hard fade in GGP. If you’re struggling to find the right lineup to fit Kershaw in your roster, check out FantasyCPR Expert Brian Tulloch’s Picks & Pivots for tonight.
One other chalky expensive mention, Zack Greinke ($10,600). Greinke is having a great bounce-back season this year, but has struggled in a few games lately, and may be challenged by the Tigers big bats in Detroit. Zack is also facing Buck, who we like, so we’re not high on this chalky pick. But he’s worth a consideration in Cash games as a Farmer fade.
Mid-Salary Range MLB FanDuel Target
The Milwaukee Brewers right-handed hurler Jimmy Nelson ($8,900) has quietly had his MLB FanDuel salary climb over the last month. So it’s a bit of a stretch to call this a mid-salary range pick, but given tonight’s options, you could save $2K-3K for some sluggers and still get a shot at 60 MLB FanDuel points in the pitcher spot.
Nelson is in St. Louis tonight, taking on a struggling Cardinals offense. Like Clayton, Jimmy has a juicy match-up tonight. The Cards have a horrendous 76 wRC+ at home against right-handed pitchers this season. They also have a 24% strikeout rate.
Nelson is quietly pitching well lately with eight or more strikeouts in four of his last six starts. With the Cards missing so many swings against RHP at home, he’s likely to eclipse eight K’s again. Nelson’s SIERA is now 3.62, 7th among the 30 starters tonight. If Jimmy can keep the ERA below two and get around seven to eight innings in a win tonight, we could get a very good 55-65 MLB FanDuel point return on just $8.9K. Nelson is a very good mid-salary range option among the group tonight.
Sneaky MLB FanDuel Pitching Pick
It’s hard to believe Joe Ross ($8,300) could be considered a sneaky pick for tonight’s match up at home against the Braves. But many are high on a lefty stack of Braves against Ross tonight. Admittedly, Joe has struggled against lefties this year.
But Ross has only seven starts under his belt, and has been up-and-down all year, including a solid 43 MLB FanDuel point result against the Braves in April. This is a risky option, but Ross could disappoint many LHB Brave stackers and sneak in a solid point stack for GPP slates.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks
Boston Red Sox vs. Ben Lively
Aside from the fact that Lively is facing Price tonight, I don’t like this match up for Ben. He only has three strikeouts in 14 innings. Also, even though he has a low 2.57 ERA, his SIERA is a horrendous 6.38, so his ERA is misleading.
Lively has actually walked, 8.9%, more batters than struck out, 5.4%. And with a .277 BABIP, the ERA is going to climb over time. Also, the Red Sox bats have been hot at home lately, after struggling to start the season. Even if just a mini-stack (two players), get some Red Sox in your lineup tonight.
Washington Nationals vs. R.A. Dickey
Dickey had a great outing in Atlanta against a struggling Phillies lineup last week. But that was the only solid game Dickey had all year, and he’s not facing the Phillies tonight, he’s facing one of the hottest lineups in baseball, the Nationals.
Yes, many of the Nats bats are expensive. But you can find some cheap one’s as well, like Wieters ($2,400). And depending on your pitcher, a guy like Farmer makes Harper and Turner easy to stack in your lineup. Dickey has a slightly better SIERA than Lively, 5.52, a low K ratio (12.4%), and high walk ratio (10.6%). This is the kinda guy you target with hitting each time he’s on the mound.
Oakland A’s vs. Jose Ureña
Jose has a slightly better K/BB ratio than Dickey and Lively, 1.57, but still very unimpressive. Urena is also giving up almost two home runs per nine innings, more than any of the bottom four SIERA pitchers tonight.
Urena has a lower BABIP against him, .256, but he’s letting enough guys on base each game that a few cheap A’s bats are likely to knock in some runs, and Miami we could see a few over the fence from the A’s tonight as well.
Seattle Mariners vs. Kyle Gibson
Five pitchers on the mound tonight have a sub-5.00 SIERA, Gibson is one of them. But Kyle has the highest strikeout ratio, 15.4%. That’s where the good stuff ends. Gibson is walking at a 11.5% rate, is giving up 1.3 HR’s per nine innings, and has a terrible .350 BABIP against him.
The Mariners lineup is fairly affordable tonight, especially Cano ($3,200).
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck with your MLB FanDuel plays tonight, and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!