FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – June 13
Welcome to the Tuesday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 7:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Monday’s Main winning GPP scores were well above our season average as it took 275.1 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 76 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 261.5 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 76 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 261.5 points.
Monday’s Main Slate was high scoring across the board and the night’s chalk, Stephen Strasburg at over 35% ownership in GPP’s, was lit up early by the Atlanta Braves leaving those who opted to pivot in a great spot to surpass the field. As we see more and more often as the weather heats up is that offenses are carrying the winning line-ups and it was the Mariners bats (ie. Nelson Cruz and co.) who erupted for 14 runs against the Twins and set up the winning rosters!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick:
Clayton Kershaw ($12,500) There is no analytic necessary to help DFS players point to Clayton Kershaw as an elite play any time he takes the mound but rather the question becomes whether or not it is worth paying up for him in tournaments.
On today’s slate, Kershaw is the highest priced pitcher by $2k over Zack Greinke before you get to a plethora of viable options in the $8k-$9k price range. Kershaw has a road match-up in Cleveland with the dis-advantage of getting a DH added to the order but even so, Vegas has installed him as a -150 favorite and the Indians have the second lowest projected run total on the board!
What intrigues me about Kershaw today is that I have suspicion that many players will look at the match-up against an Indians team that only strikes out at a 17% clip (the lowest on the slate) and balk at the price. I can tell you that was my gut reaction as well so in cases like this we could look at a discounted ownership percentage for the best arm in baseball.
I also am a big believer in recency bias and when 35% of the field gets burned by the highest priced pitcher the night before (Strasburg), it will be interesting to see if the masses flock towards cheaper pivot options.
The reality is however the pivot options are just ones I have no faith in rostering over a guy like Kershaw. Zack Greinke is the second highest priced arm on the slate with a K rate and swinging strike rate above Kershaw’s marks but he has a road test in Detroit and Vegas has installed the Tigers with a 4.5 projected run total which certainly gives me pause.
My expectation is the next tier is where we will see most players drop to tonight – with arms like David Price at home as a massive favorite against Philadelphia or the suddenly resurgent C.C. Sabathia who has 42 or more FD points in three of his last five starts.
I say this all the time to reader’s but I like to look at a slate and build rosters based off a gut instinct/ first take and when I saw Kershaw against Cleveland on the road, there were enough red flags that made me look towards cheaper options right away. I could be wrong but I expect that will be the popular thinking today and we should see plenty of articles saying “Kershaw is a cash game lock but for tournaments…”(credit my friends from the DFS Army who called this out yesterday with Strasburg) which actually makes his GPP appeal to me stand out.
There are enough value bats as well that I think paying up for Kershaw in this spot makes sense as any time I have even the slightest chance of acquiring his upside at a discount ownership, then I am going to jump all over it!
FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks:
Tampa Bay Rays in Toronto versus Marco Estrada: The usual suspects sit atop the projected run totals tonight as the Red Sox and Nationals are both sitting at implied team totals of 5.5 or higher. Are you ready for another night of Red Sox chalk?
Pouring through this slate, understanding we are going to build around the high price of Kershaw, we will need to find a high upside cost-effective stack to make the roster build work! The Rays line-up tonight against Estrada is my top option for a variety of reasons – the match-up and ballpark are ideal and the price points from a stack perspective are perfect around Kershaw!
On the season, Estrada has given up 1.3 HR/9 and over 30% hard contact to hitters from both sides of the plate. Estrada is an extreme fly ball pitcher with nearly 50% of his outs coming from that route at home this season so when you take the fly balls with the hard contact against a power team like the Rays, we could see a big time crooked number.
Corey Dickerson ($3,900) is the premier play for me (who also happens to be 5 for 14 with a home run against Estrada) and can be paired with a fairly priced Logan Morrison ($3,200) at first base. What makes this stack go though is the insanely under priced Mallex Smith ($2,200) who is batting lead-off for the Rays who is averaging 24 FD points per game since he joined the Rays last week as a lead-off man!
Mets/Nats Mini-Stacks: When you are playing a stud like Kershaw it is unlikely you will be able to fully stack more than one team that is even remotely priced up so in this roster build I actually like the idea of finding mini-stacks that allow you exposure to elite hitting environments.
The Nationals take on R.A. Dickey and I expect most will look to stack this team but the reality is that Dickey has not given up more than 2 HR in a start this season so I do not see the appeal in stacking here and would rather play some cost-effective one-offs. Brian Goodwin ($2,200) batting in the two hole is one of the bets value plays on the board and Matt Wieters ($2,400) is a power hitting punt option who should bat in the 6 hole for Washington tonight.
The Mets will take on Jon Lester in Citi Field and I will go right back to Asdrubal Cabrera ($2,800) who is coming off a two home run game and allows you the ability to fill a weak SS position. If you read Picks and Pivots normally you know I am going to be all over Wilmer Flores ($2,700) here – you simply play Flores against lefties – just do it. Flores will be in the clean-up spot tonight and if you are a fan of BvP then you will love the fact he is 5 for 10 with 3 home runs against Lester!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Clayton Kershaw ($12,500)
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C: Matt Wieters ($2,400)
1B: Logan Morrison ($3,200)
2B: Robinson Cano ($3,100)
3B: Wilmer Flores ($2,700)
SS: Asdrubal Cabrera ($2,800)
OF: Brian Goodwin ($2,200)
OF: Mallex Smith ($2,200)
OF: Corey Dickerson ($3,900)
Slate Overview: Although my gut reaction is usually to fade the top priced arms on a slate, the way the roster build works on around Kershaw gives me comfort that I can not only play the best pitcher but there is enough high upside value bats that allow me to capture the upside I want in tournaments. There are some elite value bats in the OF and you can play some big time power one offs at reasonable prices (seriously Cano at $3.1k against a SP who struggles with lefties). Keep an eye on the buzz around the industry today – if we get the idea that Kershaw will be in the 15% range of ownership then I think you will need to invest heavily in him tonight!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!