Fantasy Baseball Believe It or Not: Twins Ervin Santana

Ervin Santana is the Twins’ ace but was also one of the best pitchers in the American League this season. Yet, should fantasy owners believe in him or not next season?

The Yankee Stadium ghosts that have haunted Ervin Santana crept in again during his Wild Card start for the Twins. Forcing him to only two innings of work, and blowing a three-run lead. But, what should not be lost in recency bias, is that Santana lead the A.L. in complete games and shutouts this season while posting a 3.28 ERA.

Santana is in his thirteenth year as a major leaguer, yet has found continued success over the last three seasons for the Twins. He is the Twins’ workhorse, and in a time of pitch counts, he toed the rubber for over 200 innings and 33 starts.

On draft day, Santana was nothing more than an SP4/5 flier, as owners perceived he lacked upside, and history would lead us to believe that he would fight to stay below a 4.00 ERA.

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We should have never underestimated the grizzled veteran though, as Minnesota is serving as his salvation.

Looking ahead to 2018, Santana has earned the right to be more than simply a flier. But, should fantasy owners chase his success and make him a mid-round selection.

Santana lives and dies on his fastball/slider mix.  He throws his fastball over 50% of the time, and hitters posted a .262 AVG versus the pitch.

His slider this season has been downright filthy. He threw the pitch 37% of the time, and hitters could only muster a .152 AVG versus it. Neither pitch lost any velocity, his fastball even was up one mph, giving him a nice eight mph velocity dip.

Digging deeper into his batted ball data, Santana stayed very close to his career norms but did have some key contact improvements. He forced career-high in his 22% Soft and career low 49% Med contact rates. More encouraging signs came with him upping his first strike rate to 64% and he was able to get his chase rate back over 65%.

With sharper command and attacking the zone more, he was able to post a 7 K/9. The Twins defense, especially in the outfield, improved immensely. For a contact-driven pitcher like Santana, that not only helped propel him but also what further builds his resume for next season.

While he held RHH to a .234 AVG and LHH to a .215 AVG, he did surrender 31 HR this season. That ranked him as one of the ten worst in the league, and an 11 HR jump from last season.

He FB rate did jump to 43%, the highest it has been since 2010. Could it be a warning sign, just maybe, but fantasy owners have to take it into account.

There is also a concern in his LOB% or stranded runners rate. He was able to strand 80% of runners on base this season, the highest of his career, and a 6% jump from last season. This leads owners to why his 4.46 FIP is well above his ERA, and it serves as an unsustainable rate next season.

This is not to say that he is going suck in 2018. It means that his 3.28 ERA will predictably rise, but to what extent?

With all this said, Santana was able to dance around baserunners all season. Like nearly starter this season, his HR rate skyrocketed, but Santana’s batted ball data does not lead owners to think that he was hit any harder this season.

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Ervin Santana passes the eye test and his peripherals back up his success. Look for him to have another season in 2018. His stuff is not losing any velocity or movement, he will have an excellent defense behind him and has the track record of consistency.

The verdict is in: BELIEVE IT.