Cubs Sign Tyler Chatwood: Fantasy baseball impact
By Bill Pivetz
The Cubs add a much-needed pitcher to their rotation by signing Tyler Chatwood. Now that he’s away from Coors Field, how high is his fantasy value?
The Chicago Cubs have some holes to fill if they want to get back to the playoffs and even the World Series. The front office took the first steps towards that goal by adding a young pitcher to the starting rotation. Tyler Chatwood has had his ups and downs but could see a huge boost with Chicago.
Fantasy owners are jumping for joy. Chatwood will finally escape the dangers of Coors Field. He was one of those pitchers you would sit for every home matchup and start on the road. Chatwood’s splits are enough of an explanation. He had a 6.07 ERA and 1.678 WHIP in 17 games in Colorado while posting a 3.49 ERA and 1.228 WHIP in 16 road games.
Chatwood pitched in 37 games in his first three-plus seasons but missed most of the 2014 and all of the 2015 seasons with Tommy John surgery. He had a 4.34 ERA, 1.556 WHIP and 11-12 record in that span.
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Once he returned in 2016, Chatwood looked like a different pitcher. He posted a 3.87 ERA, 1.373 WHIP and 12-9 record. His 2017 numbers went up a little, but they were inflated by the lofty “Coors Effect.” He had a 4.69 ERA and 1.442 WHIP.
Looking past the ratio stats, Chatwood has pretty good peripherals. He has a career 54.7 ground ball rate, 57.2 and 58.1 over the last two seasons, a mid-20s fly ball rate and a 54.4 first-pitch strike rate. Keeping the ball on the ground in his previous home was a much-needed skill and getting ahead in counts in a confidence builder for any pitcher.
The negatives are the career HR/FB rate (something I will blame on Coors Field), 4.13 BB/9 and 7.2 swinging strike rate. Wrigley Field ranked 15th in home runs and eighth in doubles last season according to ESPN Park Factors.
The control issues are something that needs work. Though, it’s bound to happen with how hard he throws. Chatwood “posted the 29th-highest spin rate on his four-seam fastball and the fifth-best spin rate on his curveball,” according to Baseball Reference (h/t Statcast).
Chatwood will likely be the No. 4 pitcher behind Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jose Quintana. That could change if the Cubs get Shohei Ohtani. He is a sleeper starting pitcher in deep or NL-only leagues.
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Chatwood hasn’t put together a full season yet. Though, given the circumstances around his home field, the numbers he did post were respectable. He ranks outside of my top 250 but will be atop the waiver adds after his first couple of starts.