FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Monday December 11
Welcome to the Monday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Sunday’s Early Slate winning tournament line-ups scored just over 350 FanDuel points on the back of Victor Oladipo‘s 69.4 FD points explosion while the Main Slate winning tournament line-ups scored just over 380 FanDuel points as monster nights from the slates biggest stars including KAT (50.4), Kristaps Porzingis (55) and the Pelicans back-court (over 100 FD points combined) led to winning nights!
Over the first 54 NBA regular season slates it has taken 382.3 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.4x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Over the first 54 NBA regular season slates it has taken 382.3 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.4x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel NBA – A Weekend of Tilt:
Before we get into today’s slate, I want to take a moment to address another DFS issue that occurred last night that garnered some interesting social media discussion. Just moments after the Main Slate locked, Joel Embiid was scratched with “back tightness” leaving nearly 30% of tournament teams on a three game slate dead in the water. This now marks three straight slates we have had a player scratched minutes after lock (Kevin Love, Rajon Rondo and Embiid) that had no pre-lock indication of missing the game and ultimately were scratched.
Now I know FanDuel can easily claim they have late-swap contests and while technically the option exists, the contest selection is an absolute embarrassment. When the “largest” tournament is a 396 person $3 “Small Shot”, you cannot tell me you really are expecting this slate to be something people proactively look to play.
Let me be clear – this is NOT about the money, for me DFS is not ever about the money – I had a busy family filled Sunday so only threw in a $4 clutch shot entry so I could have some fun following the games Sunday evening. I am not looking for a “refund” or a free-roll from FanDuel – I can still afford groceries this week even with my massive $4 loss, but what I do want, and I imagine many others do as well, is an ENJOYABLE CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE.
For me, the best part of DFS is the research and the line-up build as you work to find the perfect player and roster construction on each slate. When you spend your time researching and building line-ups leading up to lock, adjusting to news and looking forward to kicking back and seeing how your team performs, these late scratches essentially kill that day’s “work.”
As soon as the news hit, I knew my line-up was done so I shut down FanDuel and spent my night essentially ignoring the NBA and DFS. Now listen, I know there are MANY DFS players who play for significant amounts of money and utilize the game as income and I cannot even imagine what they must feel in situations like this – although I was “lucky” enough to avoid the Rondo/Love news the previous nights – “winning” because I didn’t have those guys really does nothing for me as I didn’t win because of research or superior roster build, I landed above the cash line by pure…dumb…luck. This is supposed to be a game of skill, a game that people ENJOY playing especially as they get better researching and finding plays and whether you play for $1 or $1,000 entry fee, you should ultimately expect to enjoy playing the game.
What frustrates me the most is that there are simple fixes to this problem that the industry continues to ignore while simultaneously skirting over nightly issues of stat corrections, increased rake and an eco-system of line-up selling and DFS providers that mass sell line-ups as they look to control the cash lines.
I am not a proponent of full on late swap as it allows “professionals” the ability to adjust full line-ups throughout the night to adjust the early game performance. What I do believe is an easy fix is to include late swap for injuries ONLY. We already have the technology for push notifications to alert players of injury via tools like FanDuel Scout, so once the news came out – a simple push notification would have allowed you to swap off Joel Embiid and get a center into the game prior to top-off, giving you the opportunity to enjoy a night of DFS.
I would love to hear your thoughts on Twitter and how you intend to move forward in NBA DFS – will you just play as normal and assume it all “evens out,” will you move to the late-swap contests and play the small field contests and adjust your strategy accordingly or will you even scale back your play as a result? We all work hard for our money and I know that DFS for many is a time-consuming but enjoyable hobby – so I hope the industry starts to listen to its customers when they have the power to fix this!
Enough soap box time – let’s get into this slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks:
Damian Lillard ($9,300): We have an interesting six game Monday slate with some clear top game environments and some I think we can almost instantly cross off our list. As I do every day, I look over the slate and see if we can narrow down our teams/players and what is interesting to note today is that only five of the twelve teams in action see a positive pace boost so finding the right games to targets may be a bit easier as a result.
No team on today’s slate sees a bigger pace boost than Portland as they take on the Golden State Warriors for the first time this season on the road. We do not yet have a total/line for this game as we await the status of Draymond Green, but this game has the second fastest pace on the slate and without Stephen Curry, I expect this game to stay close throughout.
With Jusuf Nurkic out again tonight, we have seen Lillard taking on essentially the entire offensive load for Portland as over the last two weeks, Lillard has a massive 42.4% usage rate which is over 11% higher than his season long numbers while putting up 1.36 FP/M. Lillard steps into this game with 47 or more FanDuel points in each of his last three contests while putting up 23, 23 and 25 shot attempts in those games. The usage and volume are off the charts for Dame right now and in a pace up spot like this for under $10k, he is an easy plug and play for me tonight!
Rajon Rondo ($5,600): After dropping 13 points, 18 assists and 5 steals last night for 57.4 FanDuel points, I expect Rondo will be massively popular this evening especially at this price point. The match-up against Chris Paul is not one we typically want to attack as the Rockets rank top 5 across every defensive category versus PG’s so there is a case to be made for the large field GPP fade here due to Rondo’s popularity and a double-digit point spread but conversely we also have the fastest paced game on the slate and a player that is grossly under-priced relative to his upside.
Although it would be crazy to expect another 50 burger against CP3 tonight, the reality is that Rondo has exceeded 6x value in four of his last five games so I think you simply eat the chalk tonight in cash games/smaller field tournaments and ride the streak for Rondo tonight while using the salary savings to pay up at other key positions!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards:
Jrue Holiday ($6,800): Not only did both Pelicans guards drop 50 burgers last night, but FanDuel has dropped both of their prices tonight heading into this game against Houston so be prepared for some big time ownership to move in their direction! Holiday was a monster on Sunday night as he racked up 34 real life points and 52.3 FanDuel points against the Sixers in 41 minutes of action! The difference with Holiday is he gets to avoid Chris Paul defense and instead will take on a Rockets team ranked 15th in DvP and Def-Eff so the individual match-up is markedly better while the price point is incredibly fair and has room for additional profit!
C.J. McCollum ($6,800): Portland/Golden State is my favorite game to build around on this slate as they offer not only an elite fast paced game environment but the usage/volume is so highly concentrated that it makes picking guys for your DFS rosters so much easier!
McCollum may not see the same massive usage jump that his back-court mate sees with Nurkic off the court the last two weeks but he is still seeing a solid 3% usage bump and ranks second on the team with a 30% usage rate. McCollum has put up 20 or more shot attempts in three of his last four games and that volume/usage combination in this kind of fast-paced game could return massive profit!
‘James Harden ($11,800): As with any slate he is on, Harden is always going to be a top play and tonight is no different as he leads a Rockets team with the highest team total and fastest projected pace on the slate! If you are stacking up Rondo/Holiday then I could see stacking your team with Harden on the other side in the hope that this game stays close but there is another star on this slate that I think you simply cannot avoid at essentially the same price point….
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks:
Kevin Durant ($11,700): If you are not playing James Harden tonight then Mr. Durant is probably the reason and frankly I would find it tough to argue with you going with KD as Stephen Curry remains out with injury. In the last two games with Curry off the floor, Durant has put up 66 and 76 FanDuel points, sporting a massive 41% usage rate and putting up 1.8 FP/M over the last week!
The decision to key in on Durant tonight has massive ripple effect across your line-ups as I believe that starting your build with him gives you the perfect opportunity to correlate with the Portland back-court. This game will be high-scoring and played at a fast pace and you have lock in three players (KD/Dame/CJ) that are all shooting the ball 20-25 times a game in recent contests which gives you massive GPP upside in a potential shoot out!
David Nwaba ($4,500): Although the Bulls/Celtics game is not one that is overly enticing as it has the second slowest pace and a game total under 200, there are some interesting one-off plays we can utilize here. Nwaba returned from injury five games ago and continues to come off the bench for the Bulls which will continue to keep his ownership down as most casual players tend to focus on the starting line-ups but we should not overlook the fantasy impact that Nwaba has had off the Chicago bench in recent games.
Over his last two games, Nwaba has played 30 and 32 minutes while logging 33 and 31 FanDUel points which would put him at nearly 7x value in those contests! Nwaba is a great DFS play as he is an elite multi-category contributor racking up 5-6 rebounds in each of those games while logging 3 blocks/steals in each of those outings which adds to his GPP winning upside!
If you are looking for a more cost-effective pivot, you can also use Evan Turner ($3,700) who should get another start for Portland at the SF position and with his 20-25 minutes of court time gives you an easy salary saving option as a one-off play or as part of a game stack. Turner would only need 18 FD points to hit value at this price point, a figure he has reached in two of his last five games!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks:
Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,300) and Meyers Leonard ($3,700): Rip City? More like Stack City tonight! With a Durant/Lillard/McCollum trio as the core of my build we can easily expand off that and include the Portland front-court who will be forced to carry a significant load with Jusuf Nurkic off the floor again tonight!
Portland is playing a tight rotation as a result of the injuries to their front-court which has given Aminu the chance to log 30-35 minutes in each of his last two contests and now he will take on a Golden State team ranked 23rd in DvP and 15th in Def-Eff versus the PF position. Leonard started at Center on Saturday for Nurkic and is expected to retain the starting gig tonight against Golden State at near minimum price! Leonard played 20 minutes in his last game and returned over 5x value and although I typically avoid Centers against Golden State, Leonard is a more of a stretch center that is capable of flourishing in this fast paced environment.
Jayson Tatum ($6,300): Assuming the Celtics go with a Horford/Baynes front-court it should set up Tatum in an advantageous match-up as the starting SF against the Bulls. So far this season, the Bulls rank 23rd in DvP and 20th in Def-Eff against SF’s and has put up 32 FD points in three of his last five games!
The one player that I will definitely keep an eye on tonight is the Paul George who is questionable to return to the OKC line-up and if he was out it would push Carmelo Anthony ($7,100) into near must play territory against a banged up Hornets front court.
Last but not least – if Draymond Green ($8,500) is cleared to play tonight, you can easily include him in a GS/Portland game stack as well especially after he just dropped a 50 spot against the Pistons!
FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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PG: Damian Lillard ($9,300)
PG: Rajon Rondo ($5,600)
SG: C.J. McCollum ($6,800)
SG: Jrue Holiday ($6,800)
SF: Kevin Durant ($11,700)
SF: David Nwaba ($4,500)
PF: Jayson Tatum ($6,300)
PF: Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,300)
C: Meyers Leonard ($3,700)
Slate Overview: For me this slate breaks one of two ways – either you build around Kevin Durant and correlate with the Portland stack or you opt for James Harden and focus more on the Rockets/Pelicans stack. In my mind, Durant is simply not someone you can fade right now so locking him in with the McCollum/Lillard back-court is my preferred strategy while still getting exposure to the under-priced Pelicans guards! Keep an eye on the news tonight – and remember we have an extra hour before lock as games do not start until 8PM EST.
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!