DraftKings NBA picks December 12: Embiid could be elite if he plays

We are up to seven games on our Tuesday night in the main DraftKings tournaments. We have a couple of stars and a lot more midrange options than last night. This also marks the return of Leonard and possibly Wall. Should we play either of them?

Point Guards

Best Bets:

Ben Simmons ($9,800): This game involves two teams who can score a whole lot of points. The Timberwolves don’t really have the size to handle Simmons wherever he ends up playing. Just the fact that Simmons can play anywhere on the court keeps his value high. The Sixers can take advantage of matchup when they have someone that versatile. Simmons remains an elite option against an average defensive team.

Dennis Schroder ($7,600): Schroder has 79.75 DraftKings points in two games against Cleveland so far this year. This stands as another strong matchup for Schroder, but if John Wall ends up coming back, I would gladly spend the $600 for Wall. Wall is a steal at his price, but some places already have him ruled out. There is no official word from the Wizards though.

Honorable Mention:

Lonzo Ball ($6,600): As with most rookies, Ball is inconsistent. What is not true of most rookies is that they aren’t a triple double threat every time they take the court. Ball is a good rebounder and a great passer. His offensive game is the most unrefined of his skills, but against the Knicks, that wont really matter. This is a strong matchup no matter how you look at it. .

Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,100): Dinwiddie’s price is down to a more manageable price. While Washington is not a great matchup, it is still a pretty good one for point guards with Wall still out. If Wall plays, I’m looking somewhere else. If he is still out, which is most likely, Dinwiddie is a solid play. I trust him more than the inconsistent Teague.

Dark Horses:

J.J. Barea ($5,100): Barea’s usage hasn’t really increased with Dennis Smith Jr. out, but he is still a strong contributor. He has at least 22 DraftKings points in nine of the last ten games. On top of that, Barea has torched the Spurs for 69.75 DraftKings points in just 48 minutes this season. This is a nice night to turn to Barea for value.

De’Aaron Fox ($4,700): Fox put up 36.75 DraftKings points in his first game against Phoenix in what would be one of his best games of an up and down rookie season. Fox is an interesting dart throw in GPP tournaments, but I wouldn’t play him in every lineup, nor would I trust him in cash games.

Frank Ntilikina ($3,600): Ntilikina has at least 6x value in three straight games. He has outplayed starter Jarrett Jack lately, and the Knicks have responded by giving him a few more minutes. He is the future at point guard for the Knicks. He may not start for a while, but he looks like a little more of a sure things than the Wizards or Suns timeshare. If I had to choose one from each of those, it would be James and Satoransky, but you never really know.

My pick: Simmons(PG); Ball(PG), Ntilikina(G)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Bradley Beal ($8,600): Beal and Porter have taken turns carrying the offense with Wall out. It looks as though Beal has the better matchup tonight against the Nets, but that’s not to say that Porter isn’t still worth a look. Beal’s high price makes it harder for him to get value, but we have seen him put up a ton of points with Wall out. Beal has 110 points in the last three games! That’s a quick way to rack up DraftKings points. He has 140 of them in that span in case you were wondering.

Jimmy Butler ($8,000): Somewhere along the line, Butler has become the Timberwolves leading scorer over the last month. Only twice in the last three weeks has any team held Butler under 40 DraftKigns points. Butler is still producing enough to make him worth this price.

Honorable Mention:

Gary Harris ($6,700): Keep an eye on this as game time approaches. Detroit is a bigger team, so I expect either Harris or Barton to see less minutes in this one. I will take whichever one starts. This whole backcourt has been carrying the load with Jokic and Millsap out. Obviously, I hope Harris starts to I can save some of the money, but Barton is the better offensive player. Whichever one starts could have a huge game tonight. The other will be solid but unspectacular.

Buddy Hield ($5,600): In the four games since the worst outing of his career against the Bulls on December 1st, Hield has 126.5 DraftKings points. That puts Hield at a little over 6x value. This is a great matchup against the Suns for Hield. He put up 26.5 DraftKings points on them in the first meeting in just 17 minutes!

Dark Horses:

J.J. Redick ($5,400): There are a couple of sharpshooters at this price, but I prefer Redick. One, he is far more consistent than KCP or Bazemore. The Sixers are also leaving Redick out there for nearly three quarters of the game. He gets a lot of shots, and makes enough to give him value nearly every time on the court.

Dwyane Wade ($5,300): Wade has played the Hawks twice already this year. He has punished them with 89.75 DraftKings points in just 54 minutes. Wade looks to be a great bargain again tonight against an Atlanta team that still can’t guard the wings.

Wesley Matthews ($4,500): This looks like a poor matchup for Matthews, which it mostly is. However, with Dennis Smith out, Matthews has taken on a much larger role within the offense. His price is pretty low with the amount of shots and minutes that Matthews is getting right now. He makes a nice GPP value play tonight.

My pick: Hield(SG), Redick(G); Wade(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

LeBron James ($11,800): LeBron is easily the best player going tonight, but is he worth paying for? Well, he has just one game under 52 DraftKings points in his last dozen, and has been over 6x value in four of those. It’s hard to put up 6x value at this price, but if anyone can pull it off, it’s LeBron. However, he “only” has 115.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Hawks this year. That’s still 5x value.

Otto Porter ($7,200): It comes down to Otto Porter against a bottom five small forward defense on Kawhi Leonard on a minutes limit against a top five squad. For the price, Porter is the clear pick tonight. Leonard will be tempting, but I want to give it a game first, especially with restrictions and facing Dallas.

Honorable Mention:

T.J. Warren ($6,900): Warren struggled against the Kings in the first meeting, but Booker is out. Warren didn’t see much of an increase in the first game with Booker out, but he did lead the team in scoring. Expect that trend to continue for the duration of Booker’s absence.

Harrison Barnes ($6,300): In the first two games against the Spurs this year, Barnes is sitting right at 5x value. Barnes is already a large part of the offense, but he could see a few more opportunities with Dennis Smith sidelined again. At any rate, Barnes is a solid bet, but doesn’t have significant upside.

Dark Horses:

Caris LeVert ($5,600): LeVert’s ability to handle any of the three outside positions gives him some extra fantasy upside. DeMarre Carroll is tempting here as well since we all know that Washington doesn’t defend either forward spot well. If I can only take one though, I’m taking LeVert. There is a little more upside with him.

Josh Jackson ($4,300): Jackson hasn’t done much with his extra minutes so far, but in the first meeting with Sacramento, Jackson picked up 25.75 DraftKings points in 23 minutes. There is potential here since he could play nearly 30 minutes with Devin Booker out.

My pick: James(SF); Porter(SF), Jackson(UTIL)

Power Forwards

Best Bets:

Kristaps Porzingis ($8,500): Porzingis dominated the Hawks on Sunday. He will get a chance to do the same to the Lakers tonight. This is being heralded as Ball’s Garden debut, but I think the star of this game will be Porzingis. The Lakers are 26th in the league in points allowed to power forwards and 27th in the league in points allowed to centers. No matter how they deploy Porzingis, he is in a great place to succeed tonight.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,300): Aldridge picked up 110.25 DraftKings points in the two games with Dallas earlier this season. I expect that number to take a hit with Kawhi back, but Aldrdige still has a couple of things going for him. First off, Leonard will likely be limited to 25 minutes or less. Next, Kleber has been a breath of fresh air for Dallas, but he is still not a good defender. 5x value still seems likely for Aldridge.

Honorable Mention:

Tobias Harris ($6,600): Harris has been inconsistent for much of the last six weeks, but against Denver’s battered frontcourt, Harris looks like a strong play. I’m not sure that Wilson Chandler, Trey Lyles, or Faried can really handle Harris’s skill set. There is plenty of upside for Harris tonight.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($5,800): Hollis-Jefferson has three straight games of more than 30 DraftKings points. Washington’s struggles in the frontcourt are well documented.RHJ’s rebounding ability and newfound scoring role in the offense make him a solid contributor. He could be more than that tonight.

Ersan Ilyasova ($5,200): Ilyasova had 37 DraftKings points against Cleveland the first time around, and that was without him having the starting role. There isn’t much for healthy bodies to steal minutes from Ilyasova this time around. However, Tristan Thompson could be back tonight. If he is, even in a limited capacity, it puts a damper on Ilyasova’s output.

Dark Horses:

Trey Lyles ($4,300): I mentioned that Denver will likely try to go big to match Detroit size up front. Lyles is one of the better ways to do that. Lyles did a find job against the big frontcourts of New Orleans and Indiana, so expect him to hit a minimum of 6x value tonight.

JaKarr Sampson ($3,700): The return of Skal Labissierre from the D League didn’t do much to Sampson’s production, but if Willie Cauley-Stein can give it a go, it will. Sampson struggled with the huge New Orleans frontcourt, but he held his own with Cleveland and Toronto. There is value here against Phoenix if WCS remains out.

Maxi Kleber ($3,600): Dallas is committed to giving Kleber good run to see what they have in him. So far the returns have been pretty good. Kleber has topped 8x value three times in the last seven games. The bad news is that he was not over 20 DraftKings points in any of the other four. He is going to have his hands full with the Spurs, but if he keeps playing 30 minutes a game, Kleber will at least hit 5x value, making him a solid punt play.

My pick: Lyles(PF), Sampson(UTIL); Porzingis(PF),Ilyasova(F)

Center:

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($10,100): Embiid’s status is still up in the air. This was supposed to be just rest on Saturday, but it turned into a sore back on Sunday. Given the history with his back, I don’t like this. However, Minnesota has been pretty bad against centers this year. If Embiid starts with no restrictions, he is very close to a must play.

Andre Drummond ($9,400): You could form some kind of hybrid monster out of Lyles, Faried, and Plumlee and still not come up with a concoction that could stop Drummond. A.D.is going to have a huge night against a decimated Denver frontcourt. If Embiid sits, we still have a really good option out there.

Honorable Mention:

Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,700): Towns has back to back 50+ DraftKings point games coming into a tilt with Philly. If Embiid is in, I like this matchup a lot less. However, if it is Booker, Holmes, and Amir Johnson trying to stop Towns, I really like this matchup. The bad part is that the “classic” aka the tournaments worth playing on DraftKings, will likely lock before we have an official status on Embiid.

Enes Kanter ($6,400): Centers have dominated against the Lakers lately, so this looks like a dream matchup for Kanter. He played just 18 minutes against Atlanta, but the Knicks were likely just being cautious in the second night of a back to back. Kanter played 28 minutes in the two games before that. He should be good to go tonight.

Dario Saric ($5,700): Saric has at least 5x value in eight of the last nine games. I like him a little more if Embiid sits, but honestly, Embiid’s production has had little to do with Saric this year. Saric is going to get his no matter what. I like Saric a lot more if Covington is out again though.

Dark Horses:

Kenneth Faried ($5,200): Faried isn’t starting, but he is still playing consistent minutes and producing well over 5x value in all but one of his last seven games. They are going to need Faried’s size against Detroit, soI could see him playing 30 minutes again. If he does, Faried is a strong value play.

Dirk Nowitzki ($4,600): Dirk has 51 DraftKings points in the two games with the Spurs so far. His best years are easily behind him, but Nowitzki still has a lot of pure talent, and Dallas has done a good job of getting the most out of him while managing to keep him fresh. Dirk is a solid value play, but doesn’t have much for upside.

Jahlil Okafor ($4,200): Some think that the Nets may ease Okafor into things. I can see why people think they would, but I don’t. Okafor has a lot of talent and is easily the most accomplished player in the Nets frontcourt. His price is low enough that even if Okafor only plays 20 minutes, I bet he hits value. The fans are excited. The team is excited. I think the Nets are going to show the loyal fans that they have something to cheer for right away. This is an intriguing value play tonight.

My pick: Faried(C), Okafor(UTIL); Drummond(C)

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