NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Tuesday December 12

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

Monday’s winning tournament line-ups on FanDuel fell just shy of 400 FanDuel points highlighted by a monster night from Jrue Holiday (62.3) who went off for the Pelicans in the absence of Anthony Davis as the Rockets/Pelicans game ended with a massive 253 total and was the core game stack that drove people across the cash line.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS – Top Point Guard Picks:

Hello Picks and Pivots readers – you are going to notice a decidedly different feel to today’s article as we will no longer be singularly focused on FanDuel and instead look to make this a broader based daily NBA DFS article focused on helping you make your best plays no matter what site you play on!

After another Monday tilt-fest where we got confirmation before lock that Dante Cunningham would start for the Pelicans in place of Anthony Davis only to have him move to questionable and then scratched 8 minutes after lock and then 30 minutes later have Draymond Green (probable all day) scratched – it was another night where my research/line-up builds essentially left me dead in the water before I could even start watching the games. So today we will try something different, we will talk about slate strategy and go position by position (using FanDuel as a reference point) for those of you who still want to play “traditional” DFS but we will also sprinkle in some thoughts on how we can approach playing at one of our new favorite DFS sites – PlayLine.

The biggest item we need to watch today is the status of John Wall who practiced in full on Monday and is a game time decision (fun stuff) leaning likely towards a questionable tag against Brooklyn. Although Wall would not be on my radar today in his first game back from injury – it would directly correlate to how I intend to attack the rest of the Wizards as there is no player on Washington who sees a fantasy point boost with Wall on the floor and most of them (Ie. Bradley Beal) are priced assuming Wall sits out – more on him in a minute.

Without Wall tonight the PG position drops off pretty quickly and from a tournament perspective it vaults someone like Lonzo Ball to the top of my list with a match-up against the Knicks. Looking over this slate the Knicks/Lakers match-up is a prime spot for a core game stack as we have the highest available game total at 213 and the fastest projected pace game on the entire slate. The Knicks are ranked 28th in DvP and Def-Eff on the season so this is a spot in a pace-up game environment that Lonzo could excel in as we have seen him have some of his best games (50+ FD points) in similar spots against teams like Denver, Philadelphia and Phoenix.

Although he is not listed as a PG on FanDuel, Ben Simmons is listed as such on DraftKings and I think he makes for a no-brainer play in that format tonight. The biggest question mark here is the status of Joel Embiid who remains questionable after being scratched on Sunday due to back tightness. We all know the deal by now – when Embiid is off the court you simply find a way to play Simmons who sees a near 5% usage boost and leads the team with a 30% usage rate and 1.25 FP/M.

On a site like FantasyDraft, the Nets stand out to me as a great stacking option as the price points are relatively reasonable and they can be used really in any roster build. Spencer Dinwiddie is priced fairly across the industry and has played 30+ minutes in seven of his last eight games and this Nets/Wizards game has the second fastest pace projected on the slate so there is clear upside building around this game and if John Wall sits out, Dinwiddie gets a VERY exploitable match-up against the Wizards back-up guards!

**PlayLine Play: If you are playing on PlayLine tonight, you get the benefit of still being able to play FREE contests tonight for REAL money! If you haven’t signed up yet and need to – use my referral link here – playline.com/r/2locksports

Ben Simmons is one of the players in the $1M Perfect Line Bonus “Gone Hoopin” tournament as we need to accurately predict his point total tonight! If we look at the last four games with Embiid off the court, Simmons has registered 27 points in two of those games while failing to hit 20 points in the other two games – becoming more of a facilitator in the offense. With elite wing defenders like Jimmy Butler who can guard Simmons, I would try to be strategic tonight and peg Simmons for a sub-20 point outing as he has had in two of his last three outings with Embiid off the floor as he has to deal with the Minnesota wing defenders!

NBA DFS – Top Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal is the play that defines the shooting guard position on this slate as if John Wall plays, his price is simply too high to roster him but if Wall is ruled out then this is the lock spot of the night against the Brooklyn Nets. As I mentioned, this game as the second fastest projected pace and the Nets rank 28th in team DvP and 26th in Def-Eff so Beal would be in position to put up a monster game if Wall sits out again. Over the last two weeks with Wall off the court, Beal has a massive 34% usage rate and comes into this game having scored 25, 34 and 51 actual points over his last three games.

**PlayLine Play: Beal finds himself in the $1M Perfect Line-up Tournament tonight as well and obviously much will depend on the status of John Wall, but this is about as good of a spot as Beal could ask for. If Wall is indeed ruled out, then I would pencil Beal in for 30+ points tonight with clear 40 point upside so I would be aggressive with your point projections on Beal tonight on PlayLine!

With injuries to Robert Covington and Joel Embiid (both questionable tonight), most will flock to Ben Simmons (and rightfully so) but I think JJ Redick may be the better play tonight. With both Covington and Embiid off the floor this season, Redick sees the biggest usage bump of any Philadelphia player with a 6% usage increase and a 29.7% usage rate which is only 0.5% lower than Simmons. I would fully expect Jimmy Butler to be blanketing Simmons tonight which would leave Andrew Wiggins on Redick and this is a match-up I think we can exploit! Last game with Embiid and Covington off the court, Redick scored 28 points and put up 35 FanDuel points which makes him an elite mid-range play on this slate and an interesting pivot off Simmons.

NBA DFS – Top Forward and Center Picks

LeBron James is the clear top play on tonight’s slate but is frankly priced accordingly at $12k on FanDuel and a whopping $21.3k on sites like FantasyDraft which makes him a difficult play unless value opens up. The match-up with the Hawks is a good one for the King as he has racked up 54 and 58 FanDuel points in two previous meetings with the Hawks this season which is a great total in isolation but his price point demands a loftier return!

PlayLine Play: LeBron has scored 24 and 26 points in his two previous meetings against the Hawks and although his all around stats are elite for other DFS formats, I think we can project James to fall below his season average of 28 PPG tonight as I would expect the majority of PlayLine players would opt for the over tonight!

If you want to save some money at the position, I would move down to Jimmy Butler who could get the added benefit of facing a Sixers team without Robert Covington and Joel Embiid. This Minnesota/Philadelphia game could be an interesting one to game stack as if the injuries to the Sixers hold we know we have some value and clear usage beneficiaries and we always know that Minnesota plays one of the tightest rotations in the NBA, making their starting 5 elite plays in all DFS formats!

More from FanSided

At the Power Forward position, the top play in my opinion is Kristaps Porzingis as the Knicks have the highest team total and see the largest pace boost of any team on tonight’s slate. The Lakers simply have nobody who can match-up with KP as they rank 29th in Def-Eff versus the PF position and Porzingis is coming off a 55 FD point performance in his last contest. For my rosters, I think Porzingis and Beal are the two plays (assuming Wall is out) and I love the idea of correlating KP with Lonzo Ball in the hope this game stays close.

If you are looking for value at the position, keep an eye on Trevor Booker who has very quickly carved out a major role for the Sixers, having played 19 and 24 minutes while putting up 12/8 and 16/9 over his first two games in Philadelphia. Booker is priced at a discoutn across the industry and makes for a great way to save salary for the bigger names studs on this slate!

Normally Center is one of the best positions to sort through but with injuries to guys like Joel Embiid/Nikola Jokic this may be a spot to pay down at tonight or fade entirely on sites like FantasyDraft where you have roster flexibility. The one player that I do have interest in tonight at the position is Kevin Love as he is not only is priced fairly ($8k on FanDuel), but the fact he has a Red O next to his name should drive down ownership after he missed last game. There is an expectation he will return tonight, although it is the NBA so we never know, but this is a smash spot for Love against a depleted Hawks front court he crushed for 25 points and 16 rebounds the last time these two teams tangled!

I truly hope you enjoyed this revised format and appreciate any and all feedback as you go across your DFS contests today. I plan on trying out some new sites while loading up on one of the last FREE nights at PlayLine before they move over to cash games tomorrow! Enjoy all!

Next: PlayLine - the Newest DFS Company Letting You Play for Free!

Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!