Angels Zack Cozart: Believing in the breakout?
By Brad Kelly
The Angels inked Zack Cozart to a three-year deal on the heels of his breakout in 2017. But, can fantasy owners believe in his success heading into next season?
The Angels are going for it in 2018. They have been extremely active this offseason, trading for Ian Kinsler, and have signed Shohei Ohtani and Zack Cozart. Cozart is the latest addition to the Halos, and will even transition to third base in the process. But, can fantasy trust his offensive breakout?
Cozart’s time with the Cincinnati Reds was interesting. He showed flashes of success during his seven-year sting with the club, but injuries have largely derailed him the last three years. He has not played in more than 122 games over that three-year span but did have his best season to date in 2017, as he posted a .297/24 HR/63 RBI/.933 OPS line.
Everything came together for Cozart last season. In 2016, he posted a .252/16 HR/50 RBI/.732 OPS line, and notched 28 doubles to boot. Solid ratios for a MI selection, yet he still missed nearly 40 games.
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Digging into his peripherals, Cozart was able to increase his BB rate nearly 5%. His K rate stayed right in line with his career 16% clip, but the 62 BB were easily a career high.
He has always posted solid batted ball rates and kept that going in 2017 as he posted 20% LD, 38% GB, 42% FB, 50% Med, and 31% Hard contact rates. These were nearly all in line with career averages, so there is no glaring improvement in the level of contact he made.
However, Cozart did make a hands adjustment this spring, lowering the bat to rest on his shoulder. Fantasy owners hoping for tangible results to justify his breakout, the swing adjustment would be one.
Heading into 2018, Cozart is heading to a deeper Angels’ lineup but will be moving to a much more unforgiving home ballpark. At Great American Ballpark in 2016, Cozart mashed and produced a .327/12 HR/35 RBI/.958 OPS line. On the road, not as much, .258/12 HR/28 RBI/.900 OPS.
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The latter stat totals are more in line with his career numbers, while Great American certainly helped boost his numbers.
In terms of fantasy owners, Cozart’s success was encouraging but lacked the glaring batted ball improvement that owners want to bank on. The hand placement was a good sign, yet the injury bug did not dissipate either. Cozart’s counting stats will remain solid, but owners can not bank on the power surge.