Padres Manuel Margot: Fantasy breakout on the horizon?

Manuel Margot had a solid debut for the Padres last season. But, could a breakout be on the horizon in 2018?

The Padres are in for another long season in 2018, yet do not lack their fair share of intriguing pieces. Manuel Margot had long been a lauded prospect and finally got to get an extended taste of big league action in 2017. After a solid debut, could he be on the verge of a breakout in 2018?

Margot finished with a .263/13 HR/39 RBI/17 SB/53 R/.721 OPS line over 529 at-bats for the Padres. Mostly out of the leadoff spot, the 22-year-old built a solid stat line even though he missed a month of action with a calf injury.

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Much of Manuel’s game has been as advertised. His gap-to-gap approach was evident through his 38 XBH. Speed wise, he swiped 17 bags out of 24 attempts and would have eclipsed the 20 SB mark if not for missing most of June. There was also the 20% K rate, yet only 35 walks.

All things considered, for as young Margot still is, it was a successful debut. Looking deeper at his batted ball data, he ended 2017 with 23% LD, 41% GB, 36% FB, 49% Med and 25% Hard contact rates.

The LD rate was solid as was the FB rate, but a 26% Soft contact rate did not bode well in helping his power output.  He has the speed to make up for the GB rate, but weak contact will negate it all.

But, there was a very interesting development in his game during the second half. His splits were nearly identical in both halves, .263/5 HR/17 RBI/.703 OPS in the first and ..263/8 HR/22 RBI/.738 OPS in the second.

However, Margot upped his FB rate by over 9% in the second half and even raised his launch angle by nearly nine degrees as well. This allowed his HR numbers to jump, and he began to tap into his power.

With the lack of SB suppliers in the game, Margot already holds value as a near 20 SB lock, with even more upside in the speed department. Batting atop the Padres limits his counting stats, but if he can simply cut down his K rate some, he should be able to build his seasonal line.

With the increase in his FB rate and launch angle, Margot all of a sudden becomes an even more interesting breakout candidate. Even if his launch angle levels off, there is a real chance at 20 HR/20 SB.

The best thing about Margot is that his still being undervalued. His early ADP is around the 200 mark, making him mid to late round pick. For an OF3 or OF4, his price tag makes him all the more appealing.

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There is no reason Margot cannot keep developing and post a .270/15-20 HR/50 RBI/20 SB/.750 OPS/70 R type of line. Make him a target on draft day.