Mets give Todd Frazier a deal he could not refuse: Fantasy Fallout

Todd Frazier has inked a two-year deal with the Mets. What is the fantasy fallout of the news?

As player signings trickle in every few days, Todd Frazier is the latest player to finally find a new home. Frazier did not go far, as he is heading to the Mets after spending the end of 2017 with the Yankees. The Toddfather continued to produce power wise, but his numbers slipped some. So what is the fantasy fallout of the news?

Fantasy owners have had a solid relationship with Todd Frazier over the years. Since 2012, Frazier has at least posted 19 HR/67 RBI  per season.  Frazier’s value in fantasy has always been in his power, and that continued to be the case last season as well.

Frazier finished with a .213/27 HR/76 RBI/.772 OPS line over 147 games. He finished in the top-15 of third basemen in HR, RBI, and SLG. His 83 BB ranked him in the top-5 at the position as well. Frazier continued to be an iron man, playing in over 128 times for the last five years.

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He upped his LD rate by 2.7%, up to 18%, lowered his GB rate to 34%, and continued his FB tendencies at 48%. Frazier’s Med contact, 45%, was still solid, as was his 32% Hard contact rate. Everything stayed pretty much in line with the player that fantasy owners have expected.

But, there were some red flags.

Frazier’s AVG cratered at a .213 clip, and his K rate stayed above 21%. For the first time in his career, he could not surpass 20 doubles, and his career-worst 23% Soft contact rate surely had something to do with that. He could not handle LHP either in 2017, posting an abysmal .207/12 HR/30 RBI line versus them.

The move to Queens certainly does not help either. Citi Field is one of the better pitcher’s parks in the game, a far cry from playing in the Bronx, Cincy, or for the White Sox.

Now with the Mets, Frazier’s fantasy value is a little bit of enigma. He will find himself behind or around the likes of Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes, so the counting stats will be there. Power wise he is one of the safer bets as well.

But, the AVG will surely never going to get near the .270 mark like during his heyday. Yet, that does not mean that his AVG cannot get near the .255 mark that he was able to notch only two years ago. He still makes enough contact and showed a much better eye at the plate in 2017.

According to early draft results, Frazier is being taken around the 30th third baseman off the board. That puts him in the same tier as Yuli Gurriel, Maikel Franco, Ryon Healy, Marwin Gonzalez and Paul DeJong. Out of all those options, Frazier clearly is the safest bet, and the argument could be made that his track record should have him a tier higher.

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Todd Frazier and the Mets seem to be a logical fit and should work out fine. We all know what Frazier brings to the table, HR/RBI/SLG. If owners need power near the later rounds of the draft, Frazier should still be the pick.