DraftKings NBA Picks March 23: LeBron’s 70’s streak ends here
We are back up to ten games tonight for a busy Friday. There are stars in action. There are tankers in action. The only sure thing is that someone will sit after lock and our lineups will be screwed again. It’s been that kind of week. The Schroder scratch only hurt my late night lineup, but that was huge since the rest of that one was a good lineup.
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The money line was down to 261 last night. Yeah, the Schroder scratch may have had something to do with that, but a terrible night from Harden and two huge blowouts likely contributed more. One lineup survived Chieck Diallo and the Philly blowout to place thanks to Willy. So much for my hope of people not being able to find him since he is listed as Guillermo Hernangomez on DraftKings. Willy was still 55.8% owned. The other lineup just missed because of the failed value of Mike Muscala and E’Twaun Moore.
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Kyle Lowry ($8,100): Point guard is once again littered with pricy options with bad matchups. Westbrook against Miami? I’ll pass. Lillard against the team that just shut Westbrook down? Same. Curry returning against the Hawks? I smell a blowout. I feel much safer with Lowry against a Brooklyn team that he has averaged 44.2 DraftKings points per game against in three games this year.
Jeff Teague ($7,300): This is a good matchup for Bledsoe as well, but his performances against the Bulls this season don’t warrant the huge price markup. Teague’s does. Teague put up 36 DraftKings points on the Knicks in the first meeting. He has also only been under 30 DraftKings points once in the last 11 games. Teague is a strong play lately, even at this price.
Jamal Murray ($6,900): The Wizards are probably about as good defensively with Wall as they are without him. It really doesn’t matter. Murray takes a high volume of shots, and makes enough of them to be a constant fantasy producer. Despite only playing 29 minutes on Wednesday, Murray still hit 5.3x value. There is good upside here as well.
Dennis Schroder ($6,800): Schroder has one of his best games of the season against the Warriors earlier this season. Schroder put up 47.75 DraftKings points in that one. While counting on a repeat of that performance is foolish, I will say that it is possible. So long as the Hawks don’t rest him at the last minute again.
Ricky Rubio ($6,700): I normally wont go out of my way to play anyone against the Spurs, but Rubio has 87 DraftKings points against the Spurs in two games this season. Both teams are still in playoff contention, so you can expect that there will be max effort on both sides. The Spurs haven’t had an answer for Rubio so far. Will they tonight?
Cameron Payne ($5,400): It’s getting harder to get on board with Payne as a value play with his price this high. He is not much of a scorer, so despite his above average passing skills, Payne needs to become more of a scorer to keep delivering value at this price. He is not a bad option in this range, there just isn’t as much upside.
Devin Harris ($4,000): Do you want to play roulette with the Knicks guards? Or would you rather hitch your wagon to Harris, who has 57.25 DraftKings points in the two games since Gary Harris went down. Harris (Devin, that is) can back up both guard positions, and has seen a healthy increase in minutes with Gary out. That makes Devin a superb value play, even if the upside is somewhat limited.
My pick: Harris(PG); Rubio(PG)
Victor Oladipo ($8,200): The inclusion of Oladipo should tell you how weak the position is. This is a nice matchup for Oladipo, but he has only hit value at this price three times in the last ten games. The Pacers are still looking for a playoff spot though, so you can do worse than Oladipo tonight.
Lou Williams ($7,200): Williams is still playing around 30 minutes a game off the bench, so he is always a threat to hit value. He is one of the best pure scorers in the league. This year he has added assists to his repertoire, making him a more stable bet in daily games.
Donovan Mitchell ($7,000): The Spurs are usually not a place to play anyone. However, Mitchell torched them for 48.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting. The two guard is the weakest defensive position for the Spurs, so Mitchell is still worth a look, especially at his depressed price.
Josh Jackson ($6,900): I will admit that it is a little tough to pay this much for Jackson, but he is putting up good numbers with Devin Booker out. Jackson put up 33.75 in the first meeting against Cleveland. Jackson has not been under 29 DraftKings points with Booker out this time around. While it will take him almost 35 to hit value, that is possible against the Cavs, assuming that Phoenix can stay in the game.
Andrew Wiggins ($6,700): Wiggins put on a show against the Clippers on Wednesday. We have seen him have this type of game with Butler out earlier this year, but they have been far less common this time around. The thing to take away from this game is that Bjelica played only 22 minutes. If this is going to become a trend again, Wiggins is a steal at this price. Keep an eye on this situation.
Josh Richardson ($5,700): He’s back! Richardson has 73.5 DraftKings points over the last two games. After a slow return from injury, Richardson is picking it back up just in time for Miami to make a final playoff push. The Heat are likely in the playoffs anyway, but they are very close to the six seed or even the five seed. Why is this important? If they get out of the seven, they avoid Boston. If they get out of the six slot, they avoid Cleveland. That’s a big deal, so look for Richardson to have another productive night.
Andre Iguodala ($4,700): KD is out, and Casspi likely is too. That should lead to a start and mid 30’s in minutes for Iggy tonight. There is strong upside here since Atlanta is bad defending the wings.
Corey Brewer ($4,600): Brewer put up 28.25 DraftKings points on a tough Boston team, so I’m not keen on fading him against anyone with his price in this range. Brewer doesn’t have a ton of upside, but Toronto is the only team that has held him under 20 DraftKings points since he became a starter. Toronto is the only team to hold him under 25 in the last two weeks. Miami may limit Brewer, but he is still going to be between 5 and 6x value.
My pick: Iguodala(SG); Mitchell(SG), Brewer(G)
LeBron James ($12,100): If you are keeping score at home, that’s five consecutive 70+ DraftKings points games for the King. Even during Westbrook’s masterful season last year, he had a hard time pulling that off. LeBron is willing Cleveland to the playoffs by himself! This is a dream matchup with Phoenix, but I am going to tell you why it’s a nightmare. Just look at fellow tankers Orlando and Memphis last night. Both of those games were out of hand by the end of the first half. The starters still had solid numbers, but not enough to hit value. Phoenix is going to show that they can tank with the best of them. LeBron is going to have a big night in the 28 minutes that he plays, but I don’t know that he is going to hit the required 61 for 5x value.
Khris Middleton ($8,300): Giannis is more than likely out for the Bucks, which means it’s time to fire up Middleton. Middleton routinely hits 50 with Giannis out. There is a ton of value here for Middleton tonight. This game is going to get out of hand against the Bulls, but I still bet Middleton plays 30 minutes at hits at least 5x value. There is always potential for more if the Bulls accidentally hang around. Seriously, why doesn’t the NBA just contract to 20 teams for the last month of the season? There are always close to a dozen teams that don’t try (I’m looking at you Memphis and Atlanta). That upsets the balance of the league, and the DFS games that go with it.
Paul George ($7,600): Whenever Russ has a tough matchup, it’s usually a good idea to roster George. The Celtics held Russ under 50 DraftKings points. George responded with 45.75 DraftKings points against a good Celtics defense. The same could happen here tonight. Dragic limited Westbrook in the first matchup. If he does so again, look for George to pick up the slack again.
Will Barton ($6,800): Barton has been a strong producer with Gary Harris out. This is a tougher matchup with Washington, but the volume is going to be there for Barton still. His upside may not be as high against a team like Washington, but Barton is still a strong candidate to hit 6x value, or at least get close to it.
Otto Porter ($6,600): Porter took Denver apart for 46.5 DraftKings points in only 32 minutes earlier this season. Porter has been a bigger part of the offense with Wall out, but consistency has still been an issue. The potential is there for Porter, but there is just as good of a chance of Porter getting outplayed by Kelly Oubre lately.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,100): Hardaway is capable of putting up big numbers, especially since he is one of the few scorers left on the Knicks. The Timberwolves are decent defenders on the wing, but the volume for Hardaway alone makes him worth a look for this price.
Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,600): Houston had the second best defense in the league against power forwards. Aminu shredded them for 45 DraftKings points. That marked the fourth straight game with more than 30 DraftKings points and the second straight over 40 for Aminu. Boston presents another solid matchup for Aminu here. Aminu is one of my favorite value plays tonight. There is enormous potential here.
Jabari Parker ($5,400): Parker played a season high 30 minutes against the Clippers on Wednesday after Giannis left with an injury. With Giannis out again, the Bucks are going to lean
on Parker for around 30 minutes again. The Bucks don’t want to overwork Parker, but they would also like to hang on to the playoff spot that the currently occupy. 30 minutes from Parker seems like a happy medium, and a guaranteed 6x value.
My pick: MIddleton(G), Geroge(SF), Aminu(F), Parker(UTIL): George(SF), Barton(F), Aminu(PF), Oubre(UTIL)
LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,600): Aldridge is a tough sell because of the tough Utah defense, but LMA has three straight 50+ DraftKings point games. He is almost keeping the Spurs in the playoff hunt by himself right now. I don’t like the matchup, but it’s hard to ignore what Aldridge is doing right now.
Kevin Love ($7,700): I think Love is going to be kind of chalky tonight. After all, he put up a staggering 49 DraftKings points in only 30 minutes against a pretty solid Toronto interior. Love is playing the worst team on the planet against power forwards (and other places as well). This is a dream matchup for Love, but he likely wont play more than 30 minutes here either. Not like he will need to. There is a good chance that this game is in the bag with about 20 minutes left.
Tobias Harris ($7,400): Harris should be over the illness that resulted in Harris playing his worst basketball as a Clipper. There is serious potential here against Indiana. This game tips early, so we should know if Harris is still feeling any lingering effects of the illness or not. If he isn’t, Harris looks to be a pretty strong play tonight.
Bobby Portis ($6,400): Millsap and RHJ have tougher matchups, so I will got with what could be an overlooked Bobby Portis. Giannis is more than likely out, so that puts an already weaker Milwaukee front pretty thin up there. The man-child Portis can do some big damage up there. The Bulls will still play Portis around 30 minutes per game. I would bet he hits 6x value at a minimum tonight.
Jayson Tatum ($6,200): Injuries have forced Tatum into a more prominent role in the offense. Tatum has responded with at least 5x value in four of the last five games. There is solid potential tonight against Portland, especially since both teams have playoff aspirations. Boston is in, Portland needs to do some work.
James Johnson ($6,100): Johnson played just 22 minutes in a blowout of the Knicks on Wednesday, but he still managed a solid stat line. Expect his work load to be back up to 30+ minutes against Oklahoma City tonight. Both teams could use a win in this one. Look for Johnson to get back on track here.
Dewayne Dedmon ($5,900): Dedmon has been huge with John Collins out. That trend should continue against a beat up Warriors front. Both Kevin Durant and Draymond Green are out of this game, so Dedmon should have plenty of room to operate here. Dedmon can do a lot of damage in 30 minutes. I like him as a value play once again.
Markieff Morris ($5,000): Morris was locked down by the Spurs on Wednesday. Not like that surprised anyone. He was riding a streak of four 30+ DraftKings point games in five tries before that one. Denver has been chewed up in the middle recently, so Morris should get back on track here.
Jordan Bell ($4,200): There should be plenty of minutes available for Bell tonight with KD and Draymond out. Bell is probably the most talented guy in the Warriors’ frontcourt right now, but the team has eased him back into action. He is not on any kind of posted limit, but Bell has only played more than 18 minutes once since his return. The good news is that it was in his last game. There is decent potential for Bell here.
My pick: Dedmon(PF); N/A
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,800): The Knicks were eaten alive by Towns in the first meeting. Towns posted 58.25 DraftKings points in that game, falling one assist shy of a triple double. Now, the Knicks are in full on tank mode as well, so this game could get out of hand by the end of the third quarter. That hampers the upside of Towns, but he can still do a lot of damage by then.
Nikola Jokic ($9,300): Washington is a solid defensive team up front, but Jokic was still able to put up 47.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting against them. Denver and Washington both need wins to stay in playoff contention. There is no tanking here, which means a competitive game. For that reason, I give Jokic the edge over Towns tonight.
DeAndre Jordan ($8,400): Jordan put up another 20-20 double-double that went largely unnoticed due to the monster that Dwight Howard put up on the same night. We all know that Jordan is an elite rebounder. What you may not notice is that he has taken on a larger role in the offense, and he is even hitting a pretty good amount of free throws. The Clippers and still fighting for a playoff chance, so look for Jordan to put up big numbers again tonight.
Kelly Olynyk ($6,800): Olynyk has been a load lately, putting up 107.75 DraftKings points in 71 minutes over the last two games. Hassan Whiteside is still out, so expect another strong game from Olynyk. He isn’t starting, but Olynyk is still close to starter’s minutes.
Jonas Valanciunas ($6,800): Guess who’s playing the Nets? That’s right, it’s Jonas. Lock him in tonight. Even if he only plays 25 minutes, Valanciunas could still hit 40 DraftKings points against this awful interior defense.
Enes Kanter ($6,300): Kanter put up 36 DraftKings points in only 27 minutes against Minnesota earlier this year. Kanter wont have to fight over minutes tonight, so he should play at least five more minutes, which could have Kanter flirting with 40 DraftKings points tonight. There is really solid potential here.
Alex Len ($4,600): The Cavs still don’t defend the interior very well, but I would be very nervous about using Len. First off, he has openly said that he is leaving via free agency this summer. The Suns are actively trying to lose, so why would they play him now? There is potential for any Suns big here tonight, but Chriss and Bender, though not as talented, could be safer picks.
My pick: Jordan(C); Valanciunas(C)
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