Welcome back to the FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups column for the Main slate on Wednesday, June 6th 2018. We’re a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you build a DFS MLB optimal lineup for each slate.
With part of the MLB schedule underway, or even finished, we still have ten games for the Main slate on Wednesday night. That provides us with twenty pitcher options and numerous stacks. The upside of a heavy Main slate on a split day is the ownership is likely lower, even for the better picks.
However, even with the longer list of pitcher options, finding the best picks isn’t easy. Like the Early Only slate, there is risk with practically every option. And unlike last night, we really have no elite options with a good match up.
Finding the right starting pitcher is a challenge, but that challenge should lead to lower ownership of our top picks. Also, finding the right offenses to target, and affordably, is easier tonight than it was on Tuesday night.
Before we get there, a reminder to never take a DFS MLB optimal lineup as ‘bible’ for your personal lineup each day. Use the suggestions as guidance. Also, make sure you follow final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR or me @mattymcmatt17 look for late breaking lineup news.
Weather Note: Once again, we’re giving you a green light to play all teams! The weather is generally ideal for late spring baseball during the Early Only and Main slate for FanDuel MLB. You have no concerns about playing any teams today. Every game gets in!
With weather-related considerations addressed, let’s get to the top pitching options…
FanDuel MLB: Top Pitcher Main Slate
Full disclosure, I changed my top pitching target for the Main slate multiple times before I completed this article. The biggest problem with pitching for this slate is the match ups. For example, Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,100) was a top pick of ours against the Blue Jays, and he piled up seven K’s with a win for 45 FanDuel MLB points last outing.
At first glance, Rodriguez seems to be set up well facing the Tigers in Fenway Park. However, keep in mind that Eduardo is a lefty, and the Tigers often smash southpaws. Against LHP’s this season, the Tigers have a 115 wRC+, and a low 18.1% K-rate. That’s the second lowest K-rate against LHP’s in baseball. We wanted to play Rodriguez, but this isn’t the ideal match up for him.
Shohei Ohtani ($8,600) is a fan favorite and will likely be heavily owned against the Royals tonight, but that’s also a mistake. The Royals have one of the lowest overall K-rates in baseball, and against right-handed pitchers they’re only fanning 17.7% of the time. That’s by far the lowest in baseball against RHP’s. So yes, Ohtani has a high 31.3% K-rate, but tonight isn’t the best time to own him.
Aaron Nola ($9,600) has looked great against terrible teams, and mediocre against good offenses like the Cubs. So paying $9.6K for a 3.13 xFIP and low 24.9% K-rate against a hot offense in their own ballpark seems like a rip-off. Likewise, Lance McCullers Jr. ($8,800) also has a sub-par pitching match up.
All of these thoughts landed me at Jose Quintana ($8,500), until it didn’t. Quintana looked great against the Mets and Reds recently, but struggled against a surprisingly solid Giants offense over the last couple of weeks. But the Phillies have a high K-rate right? Yes, but against lefties it drops down to 22.3%.
So we like still like Quintana tonight, but we’re not satisfied with a likely mediocre FanDuel MLB point performance at the pitcher spot. As we backed off Jose, we tripped over Daniel Mengden ($8,400). The 25-year-old right from Texas A&M is having a very efficient season.
Daniel never jumped out at us because of his low 16.2% K-rate. But Mengden’s WHIP is 0.97, he has a 2.7% walk rate, and is giving up only 0.73 home runs per nine innings. All of these figures lead to the solid 3.98 xFIP so far this season.
But the only reason we’d play Mengden is if he has an eye-popping K-rate match up against right-handed pitchers. Because 16% isn’t going to cut it. Teams like the White Sox, Orioles, and Diamondbacks are in the mid-20’s% against RHP’s this season, and Mengden fanned each of those teams five times when starting against them.
So who does Daniel get tonight? The Texas Rangers in Arlington. The Rangers have an eye-popping 26% K-rate against RHP’s, second worst in the MLB only to the Phillies. So we know Mengden is capable of five to eight strikeouts tonight.
Now this is getting interesting. Also, Daniel has pitched six to nine innings in each of his last five starts. So we’re getting points from Mengden for long innings AND K’s tonight. Oh, and his ERA and WHIP are low. For that reason, we backed away from Quintana and grabbed Mengden for this slate.
FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Main Slate
We’re getting a fairly affordable pitcher tonight, so we have plenty of salary left on the table to grab some big bats for our lineup. This sometimes comes back to haunt us, if we don’t pick the right match ups and focus too much on star power. We’re trying to avoid that tonight.
However, the first set of bats we love is the Yankees (so much for avoiding star power). With a 5.05 xFIP, Sam Gaviglio has of the worst xFIP’s of any starter on the mound tonight. He’s facing the Yankees in Toronto, and is giving up 1.66 home runs per nine innings. That bodes well for the Bronx Bombers.
Sam is a right-handed pitcher, and the first two bats we’re grabbing are lefties Brett Gardner ($3,300) and Greg Bird ($3,600). They each do well against righties, can crush the ball, and sit well in the Yankees lineup. Aaron Hicks ($3,500) is a switch-hitter, and we’ll also have Hicks in our lineup with a fourth affordable Yankee later on.
The Rockies went nuts crushing the baseball in the Great American Ballpark last night. That’s not too surprising as the Reds are giving up a lot of runs in their home park. So we’re also going to grab some Rockies for our lineup. Given the price of the Yankees players we like, we’re sticking to the mid-salary range with DJ LeMahieu ($3,500) and Carlos Gonzalez ($2,700), assuming they both start.
Some other stacks to consider tonight are the Cardinals, Twins, and Athletics, all facing starting pitchers who have above 5.00 xFIP’s and home run rates of more than two per nine innings.
FanDuel MLB: Summary and Example Lineup
Finally, we’ve been high on Jean Segura ($3,700) but backed off him a couple days ago. Segura has remained hot, with a home run on two hits last night and 21.7 FanDuel MLB points. Even with McCullers on the mound, Jean is a great play at shortstop. His salary has climbed by about $400 over the last week, but he’s still a relatively cheap play considering his output.
So after a long winding path of thoughts regarding the pitcher spot, we finally settled on Mengden, and we’re actually very excited about it. We also love Jean Segura at the SS spot.
For stacks, we’re starting with a four-man Yankees stack, regardless of how the rest of our lineup shapes up. Additionally, we like the Rockies, Cards, Twins, and A’s for offense tonight. With that summary in mind, here’s a look at a sample lineup for the MAIN FanDuel MLB slate on Wednesday, June 6th 2018:
FanDuel MLB Main Slate Sample Lineup:
P Daniel Mengden ($8,400)
C/1B Greg Bird ($3,600)
2B DJ LeMahieu ($3,500)
3B Miguel Andujar ($3,200)
SS Jean Segura ($3,700)
OF Aaron Hicks ($3,500)
OF Brett Gardner ($3,300)
OF Carlos Gonzalez ($2,700)
UTIL Corey Dickerson ($3,100)
Remaining Salary: $100
Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for today. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel NHL lineups. We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.
Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots
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