DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Tuesday, June 12
Welcome into the Tuesday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have the normal 15 game slate on tap for tonight to let’s get to work.
It was another tough DFS MLB night for me personally and there’s not much more frustrating than pegging some good plays and making the wrong choice. I had Michael Brantley in my sample lineup last night, Marcell Ozuna and Jose Martinez were in my construction at various points during the day and I though about moving Jose Ramirez to Mike Trout. Any one of those moves likely cashes and if I can borrow a phrase from MoneyBall, “I hate losing more than I like winning, and there’s a difference”. Let’s try to make tonight a much better night.
DFS MLB – Red Sox at Orioles
Boston Probable Starter – Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP
3.68 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 27.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .146 average, .259 wOBA, 42.1 fly ball rate and 31.6 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .243 average, .292 wOBA, 41.5 fly ball rate and 27.0 hard contact rate
The Orioles offense is just a mess right now and Rodriguez is in a better matchup than it might appear on paper. It’s also going to be a shock to go from Steven Wright‘s knuckle ball to what Rodriguez brings. Baltimore has an average strikeout rate against lefties and I’m not very interested in their offense tonight. Manny Machado is always a solid play regardless of matchup and he’ll play tonight after sitting out last night. Adam Jones has great BvP data against Rodriguez if that’s something that you want to chase. I’m not going to chase any Orioles hitters in this spot and I think it’s Rodriguez or bust. I might throw him into a tournament lineup.
Orioles Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Manny Machado, Adam Jones
Orioles Probable Starter – David Hess, RHP
3.07 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 13.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .289 average, .367 wOBA, 47.6 fly ball rate and 27.6 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .207 average, .282 wOBA, 48.1 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard contact rate
Hess isn’t terrible against righty hitters so I might just be right back on the Red Sox lefties again this evening. Seeing the fly ball rates given up to righties, I certainly don’t think hitters like J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts are bad plays. Betts especially is tough to not give a lot of though to seeing as how he’s the third cheapest Boston hitter out of the big three of Andrew Benintendi, Martinez and himself. I’d still side with the lefties despite their dud last night. Mitch Moreland and Rafael Devers have seen their price shoot up and it’s a bit tougher to trust them at their salary. I wouldn’t be surprised if they smash Hess pretty good tonight.
Red Sox Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Brock Holt
Secondary Options – Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers
Home Run Pick – Mookie Betts
DFS MLB – Rockies at Phillies
Rockies Probable Starter – Jon Gray, RHP
5.66 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 25.7 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .285 average, .358 wOBA, 32.7 fly ball rate and 39.3 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .293 average, .329 wOBA, 25.5 fly ball rate and 32.0 hard contact rate
It has been a really rough season for Gray but it’s at least possible he’s in a nice spot tonight. The Phillies offense has hit the skids lately and they’re only hitting .205 with a .266 wOBA in the past two weeks. They also carry close to a 28 percent strikeout rate during that span. Gray is still nothing more than a GPP dart at this stage. If you want to go after the Phillies bats, it would be narrowed down to three for me. Cesar Hernandez is a solid on base player and could steal a bag even if he’s not scoring runs. Odubel Herrera has been awful lately but this could be the pot where he wakes back up. Finally, Rhys Hoskins is still cheap compared to his normal price since he just came off the DL.
Phillies Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Rhys Hoskins
Secondary Options – Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera
Phillies Probable Starter – Aaron Nola, RHP
2.35 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 24.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .199 average, .239 wOBA, 25.4 fly ball rate and 22.1 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .194 average, .234 wOBA, 32.3 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard contact rate
The most expensive pitcher on the slate is normally someone we should have some interest in and Nola is in a great spot tonight. The Rockies offense is fueled by Coors Field because they are awful on the road against righties. So far this year, they rank dead last in average, 28th in OPS, 22nd in ISO and 29th in wOBA. The only good thing is they rank 14th in strikeout rate but that doesn’t mean Nola can’t have his way in this spot. I don’t want any Rockies hitters as they good ones are priced at a premium. Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon can hit anyone but there are better spots to focus on. Nola will be in heavy consideration in cash for me.
Rockies Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options -Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado
Home Run Pick – Rhys Hoskins
DFS MLB – Nationals at Yankees
Nationals Probable Starter – Tanner Roark, RHP
3.56 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 20.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .243 average, .318 wOBA, 32.2 fly ball rate and 29.6 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .179 average, .254 wOBA, 37.1 fly ball rate and 29.3 hard contact rate
There’s plenty of times that Roark can be used in cash games because he’s generally a rock steady option. You know what you’re going to get for the most part but I can’t possibly think of a good reason to pitch him in Yankee Stadium on a 15 game slate. That doesn’t mean I’m going heavy with Yankees since Roark is a good pitcher. Maybe he gets knocked around but he’s not a fly ball machine and his hard contact given up is way down. This side of the game seems like one we should just pass over unless you’re going to stack Yankees. If you’re absolutely desperate for a Yankee bat, I would stick to a hitter like Aaron Judge, Greg Bird or Brett Gardner. None of those three are a priority for me.
Yankees Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Brett Gardner
Yankees Probable Starter – C.C. Sabathia, LHP
3.59 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 18.0 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .231 average, .339 wOBA, 32.1 fly ball rate and 21.4 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .233 average, .296 wOBA, 39.7 fly ball rate and 30.1 hard contact rate
There’s a lefty masher by the name of Anthony Rendon facing a mediocre lefty in Yankee Stadium and he’s just $3,600 on FanDuel. I think I just found the first member of my core group tonight. I don’t care if he’ll be chalky, I’m playing Rendon tonight. It’s also extremely hard to not play Juan Soto in this spot as he has crushed lefties to the tune of a .520 wOBA in 30 at-bats with three home runs already. You could finish off a Nationals stack with Bryce Harper and Mark Reynolds if you chose but that’s not likely the way I’m headed tonight. I wouldn’t touch Sabathia even though he’s coming off one of his better starts of the season.
Nationals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Bryce Harper
Secondary Options – Mark Reynolds, Trea Turner
Home Run Pick – Juan Soto
DFS MLB – Twins at Tigers
Twins Probable Starter – Jake Odorizzi, RHP
4.24 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 23.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .237 average, .360 wOBA, 51.8 fly ball rate and 36.1 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .259 average, .338 wOBA, 52.4 fly ball rate and 33.6 hard contact rate
I honestly don’t understand how Odorizzi can have such decent metrics with the amount of fly balls given up. You would think more of them would be leaving the yard but things could be a lot worse for Odorizzi. $2,900 for Nicholas Castellanos on FanDuel seems borderline egregious. He’s not the biggest power hitter anyone has ever seen but that is dirt cheap for this matchup. Miguel Cabrera is $100 cheaper and they’re both really tempting just from a price point this evening. Detroit is worse against righty pitching so I don’t think I’m going to stack them up here. Leonys Martin is also reasonably price and is the last man of the four Tigers hitters on my radar Jeimer Candelario. Odorizzi could be a very against the grain play of you wanted to go after Detroit’s 22.4 strikeout rate against righties.
Tigers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Miguel Cabrera, Nicholas Castellanos
Secondary Options – Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario
Tigers Probable Starter – Blaine Hardy, LHP
3.66 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 16.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .235 average, .331 wOBA, 44.8 fly ball rate and 34.5 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .256 average, .299 wOBA, 43.3 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate
Hardy has been pitching better than anyone would have thought and the metrics don’t look completely terrible. The fly balls are concerning but he’s been able to manage them so far. The leader in wOBA for the Twins is lefty Max Kepler and I’d have no issue playing him at all but I might find myself headed towards Ehire Adrianza since he’s $400 cheaper and he plays shortstop which is harder to fill. It kind of depends on how you want to play the game. Adrianza offers being on the side of the splits with a higher average but Kepler is on the side that has the higher reward. Minnesota is not the greatest as a team against lefties and I think I’d limit my exposure to those two. Hardy is not in the running for me this evening although he’s shown flashes in limited action.
Twins Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Ehrie Adrianza, Max Kepler
Secondary Options – Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, Brian Dozier
Home Run Pick – Miguel Cabrera
DFS MLB – Giants at Marlins
Giants Probable Starter – Chris Stratton, RHP
4.63 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 19.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .255 average, .339 wOBA, 32.3 fly ball rate and 37.6 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .266 average, .335 wOBA, 37.2 fly ball rate and 46.8 hard contact rate
The Marlins offense continues to be pesky and they definitely have an easier matchup tonight than last night. I’m far from going all in on the Miami offense but there are hitters that should be considered. J.T. Realmuto has been pretty consistent even if the ceiling isn’t the highest on a nightly basis. Justin Bour has been food lately as well and he smacks righties around. The power potential is always there with him. Lastly, Derek Dietrich and Brian Anderson have been red-hot the past two weeks. I’ve started to make it a habit to not pitch anyone against Miami so if the big name pitchers scare me, I’m not going after Stratton tonight.
Marlins Hitters to Target
Elite Options – J.T. Realmuto, Derek Dietrich, Brian Anderson
Secondary Options – Justin Bour
Marlins Probable Starter – Trevor Richards, RHP
5.02 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 23.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .236 average, .328 wOBA, 36.1 fly ball rate and 36.1 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .281 average, .363 wOBA, 39.6 fly ball rate and 50.0 hard contact rate
Richards has been all over the map in his starts and I’ll pass up using him at all. Alen Hanson is mighty interesting for a cash play since he has a ridiculous .502 wOBA over 51 at-bat so far this year. That’s obviously due to regress but he’s also very reasonably priced. Since Richards is reverse splits, I’d stay on the right side of the plate here. Andrew McCutchen stayed hot last night and his price came down slightly. I usually play him exclusively against lefties but could make an exception tonight. Brandon Crawford is in the mix as well but his price is high for him, limiting his appeal slightly. Overall, this game will probably be lost in the shuffle on a slate this size and that’s likely the right call.
Giants Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Alen Hanson, Andrew McCutchen
Secondary Options – Brandon Crawford
Home Run Pick – Justin Bour
DFS MLB – Blue Jays at Rays
Blue Jays Probable Starter – Jaime Garcia, LHP
5.57 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 20.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .226 average, .341 wOBA, 50.0 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .294 average, .375 wOBA, 38.5 fly ball rate and 39.0 hard contact rate
I’m not one to chase Tampa bats but I think I might make an exception tonight when they take on one of the worst lefties in baseball. I fully expected C.J. Cron to be priced through the roof in this spot but $3,500 on FanDuel is highly affordable. He’s mashed lefties so far with a .398 wOBA and that could easily be a core member later on. His teammate Jake Bauers is coming off a 40 point performance last night and even though he hits lefty, it’s not like Garcia has shut them down either. Matt Duffy doesn’t carry any type of real ceiling but he’s fine for cash games as he should be able to notch a couple of hits and probably a run or two if he’s leading off. I really want to chase Garcia more than the Rays will let me, but I also don’t want to play inferior hitters solely due to matchup.
Rays Hitters to Target
Elite Options – C.J. Cron, Jake Bauers(salary saver)
Secondary Options – Wilson Ramos, Matt Duffy
Rays Probable Starter – Ryne Stanek, RHP
It’s got to be one of the more frustrating aspects of DFS right now when you try to figure out what the Tampa bullpen day is going to look like. Stanek is the starter in name only as he won’t go very far into the game. We’re not sure who the main pitcher is going to be yet and until we do, it’s nigh impossible to gauge the matchup of for the Blue Jays. I’ll likely leave this side of the game alone since the matchup is so subject to change. The one exception could be Teoscar Hernandez, who is hitting well lately and hit a bomb last night as well. I’ll try to update this situation as the day goes on tomorrow and the rest of the crew at Fantasy CPR will have you covered just like we always do.
Blue Jays Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Tesocar Hernandez
Secondary Options – TBD
Home Run Pick – C.J. Cron
DFS MLB – Mets at Braves
Mets Probable Starter – Zack Wheeler, RHP
4.57 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 22.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .250 average, .318 wOBA, 41.5 fly ball rate and 44.1 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .263 average, .307 wOBA, 32.8 fly ball rate and 23.0 hard contact rate
Even when they aren’t hitting on all cylinders, I don’t want to throw a pitcher against the Braves. It’s just not going to work out often enough to be profitable in the long run. This matchup profiles poorly for Wheeler since he’s worse against lefty hitters. The top four in the Atlanta lineup all will bat lefty against him and he struggles to control stolen bases. Maybe I’m just on him at the wrong times, but anytime I roster Freddie Freeman, he’s always super low owned. I love him tonight since he crushes righties and has been swinging a hot bat the past two weeks. Sure, he’s expensive but that’s the way things go when you want to play the N.L. MVP. Ender Inciarte is one of my favorite GPP plays on the night because he can steal bags with the best of them, even if it’s been awhile since he’s done it.
Braves Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte(GPP), Johan Carmago
Secondary Options – Nick Markakis, Charlie Culberson, Ozzie Albies
Braves Probable Starter – Mike Foltynewicz, RHP
2.31 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 28.7 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .199 average, .302 wOBA, 37.1 fly ball rate and 32.6 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .204 average, .247 wOBA, 31.9 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard contact rate
Foltynewicz is one start removed from scoring 70+ points on FanDuel and is certainly in the running for the cash pitcher of the night. There isn’t a metric to pick on here and the Mets also don’t have an offense that really worries me. If Asdrubal Cabrera can’t suit up tonight, the only really worrisome hitter is Brandon Nimmo. I generally won’t avoid playing a pitcher if there’s only one hitter in a lineup that I think could do some damage. The one nitpick against Foltynewicz is he doesn’t go six innings too frequently but his strikeouts make up for it. I will likely pass on any Mets this evening.
Mets Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto
Home Run Pick – Freddie Freeman
DFS MLB – Cubs at Brewers
Cubs Probable Starter – Tyler Chatwood, RHP
3.86 ERA, 1.78 WHIP and 19.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .263 average, .362 wOBA, 28.9 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .183 average, .304 wOBA, 27.0 fly ball rate and 26.6 hard contact rate
This is a bit of a weird spot for Chatwood. If the Brewers are patient enough, they should be able to work plenty of walks. It’ll drive the pitch count up for Chatwood and the Brewers are top five in stolen bases as a team. Catcher Willson Contreras helps control that but this isn’t the team that you want to let on base for free constantly because they will make you pay. The question is are the Brewers patient enough to attack the Achilles heel of Chatwood. I’m really only looking towards the lefties here for Milwaukee and two are a cut above. Jonathan Villar is an incredible stolen base guy and if he gets on, look out. Christian Yelich is very expensive but has the second highest walk rate of the team. he could definitely get on base and steal to account for his lack of power relative to his price.
Brewers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Christian Yelich, Jonathan Villar
Secondary Options – Travis Shaw
Brewers Probable Starter – Chase Anderson, RHP
4.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 15.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .211 average, .309 wOBA, 47.5 fly ball rate and 36.3 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .252 average, .351 wOBA, 42.2 fly ball rate and 32.0 hard contact rate
I’ve been saying it a lot lately but this might be the game where we see the elusive Kris Bryant home run in the wild. I’m having a tough time finding room for him as I think C.J. Cron, Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rendon might be better plays on FanDuel. That’s a call to be decided on later, but Bryant gets a pitcher that is revers splits and that he’s hit three homers off of already. It’s also in Milwaukee which is a launching pad more nights than it’s not. Ben Zobrist also has some incredible BvP data in an 18 at-bat sample size. I don’t think you can go wrong with playing Anthony Rizzo or Kyle Schwarber either. I’m not sure how heavy on Chicago I’ll be tonight because the big guns are all going at full price right now.
Cubs Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo
Secondary Options – Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora
home Run Pick – Kris Bryant
DFS MLB – Indians at White Sox
Indians Probable Starter – Adam Plutko, RHP
3.93 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 16.7 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .300 average, .426 wOBA, 48.1 fly ball rate and 51.9 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .135 average, .244 wOBA, 71.4 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard contact rate
Plutko is back in action tonight and I think there’s plenty of White Sox bats to take a look at. Those metrics against lefties look bad. They’re even worse when you calculate in a 98 percent strand rate against lefties, meaning things should look way worse right now for Plutko. I have no issue using Yoan Moncada and Daniel Palka in cash lineups tonight. Moncada is far past due for a big game and Palka has been hammering the ball the past couple of games and the ball just can’t find grass. I can’t argue with you if you want to take a shot at Jose Abreu with the amount of fly balls Plutko is giving up but I’m sticking with lefty hitters in this spot. With how putrid the White Sox have been on offense this year, Pluto would be a crazy GPP dart.
White Sox Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Daniel Palka, Yoan Moncada
Secondary Options – Jose Abreu
White Sox Probable Starter – James Shields, RHP
4.92 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 16.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .194 average, .293 wOBA, 39.3 fly ball rate and 27.4 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .268 average, .320 wOBA, 44.6 fly ball rate and 36.6 hard contact rate
Like everyone and their mother last night, I was on Cleveland lefties against Lucas Giolito and walked away with a total of 12 points from Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez. That’s less than ideal but they’re in another great spot again tonight. I made a case for Shields not being as bad as everyone thinks before his last start against the Twins. He must read the article because he said, “Hold my beer and watch me get crushed for seven runs!”. If the Twins can get to him, so can the Indians. I’m steering clear of Edwin Encarnacion even if he plays. I’m not a fan of an older power hitter with an ankle injury. You stick with Lindor, Ramirez and Michael Brantley. Feel free to sprinkle in Yonder Alonso and the value outfielders based on batting order.
Indians Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley
Secondary Options – Yonder Alonso, Greg Allen/Rajai Davis, depending on order
Home Run Pick – Daniel Palka
DFS MLB – Reds at Royals
Reds Probable Starter – Sal Romano, RHP
6.23 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and 16.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .331 average, .400 wOBA, 32.4 fly ball rate and 38.0 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .222 average, .326 wOBA, 34.6 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate
Another reason why I’m having trouble finding room for Bryant in thie lineup tonight is because Mike Moustakas is in a great spot tonight and he’s $600 cheaper on FanDuel. Romano hasn’t been able to control lefties at all this season and Moose should be able to come out on top in this spot. I don’t even hate Alex Gordon in this spot and that’s saying something because it’s 2018 and he hasn’t been a good baseball player since about 2015. The stats say what they say though and Gordon does have a .346 wOBA overall against righties. I don’t think I’d go after righties from Kansas City on this slate. Romano isn’t in play for me because the Royals don’t strike out enough for him to hit a ceiling.
Royals Hitters to Target
Elite Options -Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon
Secondary Options – Jorge Soler, Salvador Perez
Royals Probable Starter – Ian Kennedy, RHP
5.76 ERA, 1.64 WHIP and 20.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .293 average, .384 wOBA, 46.4 fly ball rate and 41.9 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .303 average, .367 wOBA, 36.8 fly ball rate and 39.2 hard contact rate
I won’t play Ian Kennedy unless you paid me to play DFS that night. The Reds are an excellent stacking option tonight as Kennedy is a terrible pitcher. If this game were in Cincinnati, the Reds would be chalk. Since it’s in Kansas City, that might keep the ownership down a little bit. There’s not many Reds in the top six in their order that I’m not interested in. Eugenio Suarez leads the charge but is facing tough competition for limited slots on FanDuel. Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett are up there in price so I might turn to Jesse Winker. Over the past two weeks, he’s making hard contact over 60 percent of the time and appears to be in the process of salvaging his season. If he leads off, he’s a borderline lock for me.
Reds Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Eugenio Suarez
Secondary Options –Curt Casali(if active), Scott Schebler
Home Run Pick – Jesse Winker
DFS MLB – Padres at Cardinals
Padres Probable Starter – TBD
Unfortunately, as of this writing the Padres have not announced a starter for tonight’s game. That’s likely going to change by the time you read this and just like the Tampa situation, I’ll put some thoughts out on Twitter and the CPR team will have it covered from all angles. What we do know is Jose Martinez, Marcell Ozuna and Matt Carpenter are all white-hot for the Red Birds. Ozuna is still the most attractive by price point but it’s hard not to take a look at Martinez even at his sky-high price. All he’s done lately is hit home runs. Let’s hope the Padres can’t find someone too good to pitch tonight.
Cardinals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Marcell Ozuna, Jose Martinez, Matt Carpenter
Secondary Options – TBD
Cardinals Probable Starter – Miles Mikolas, RHP
2.27 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 18.5 strikeout rate
VS LHH – .272 average, .302 wOBA, 31.1 fly ball rate and 38.0 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .166 average, .198 wOBA, 21.0 fly ball rate and 29.3 hard contact rate
If there was ever a time to use Miles Mikolas, it’s on this slate. The strikeout rate usually has me shying away from him but the Padres are top three in baseball in strikeout percentage to righty pitching. In addition, Mikolas is one of the best pitchers available so it’s easier to justify a high salary. The only lefty hitters that give you pause is the two that sit atop the lineup. Travis Jankowski and Eric Hosmer make a dangerous 1-2 combo but if Mikolas keeps them under his thumb, he should cruise without an issue. I don’t want anything to do with the Padres offense on the road against a really good pitcher. Mikolas might not be my GPP pitcher of choice but he’s in the mix for my preferred cash game starter.
Padres Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Travis Jankowski, Eric Hosmer
Home Run Pick – Marcell Ozuna
DFS MLB – Pirates at Diamondbacks
Pirates Probable Starter – Trevor Williams, RHP
4.18 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 16.7 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .274 average, .332 wOBA, 39.2 fly ball rate and 22.9 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .212 average, .288 wOBA, 39.4 fly ball rate and 30.7 hard contact rate
The Pirates are coming off a horrendous loss and there is a lesson to take out of it for daily fantasy purposes – their bullpen is flat atrocious. It has been all year but this is something we can legitimately attack, even if the starter looks like a bad matchup. Saying Williams is a bad matchup is a bit of a stretch, but the lefties from Arizona certainly look appealing. Steven Brault is the only lefty in the pen for Pittsburgh and he’s nothing special so the Diamondback lefties would still have a shot late in the game. Both David Peralta and Jake Lamb are extremely affordable and are in play tonight. Even Daniel Descalso is a nice punt option. I wouldn’t mess with Trevor Williams tonight even though the Diamondback do have very poor metrics against righty pitching so far in 2018.
Diamondbacks Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Jake Lamb, David Peralta,
Secondary Options -Daniel Descalso, Paul Goldschmidt, Ketel Marte
Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Clay Buchholz, RHP
1.88 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 22.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .171 average, .229 wOBA, 51.5 fly ball rate and 30.3 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .208 average, .262 wOBA, 48.6 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard contact rate
An effective version of Buchholz isn’t something that I thought we would see four starts into his season but that’s where we’re at. Austin Meadows may be a lefty batter but he’s a hitting machine in his limited action and his price is perfectly fine. Starling Marte and Josh Harrison are the best righty batters against righty pitching but I can’t see myself using either one of them tonight. Frankly, this game as a whole might be a complete pass from me. I worry the Pirates are in a death spiral as they have lost a ton of games recently and I don’t want to rely on their offense late in the night to come through.
Pirates Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Austin Meadows
Secondary Options – Starling Marte, Josh Harrison
Home Run Pick – David Peralta
DFS MLB – Astros at A’s
Astros Probable Starter – Lance McCullers, RHP
3.94 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 24.7 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .176 average, .275 wOBA, 30.9 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .269 average, .320 wOBA, 24.5 fly ball rate and 35.3 hard contact rate
I’m a big McCullers fan but I can’t see why I would pitch him on the road against a solid offense. I will say he’s firmly in play in tournaments. Oakland has seen McCullers twice so far. Once he scored 52 points and once he scored 25 points. McCullers can dominate any lineup in baseball but he can also totally implode if his knuckle curve is off. That’s the pitch that is his main weapon and there’s not a lot of Oakland bats that rate well against it. It’s the power that Oakland can bring to the table that concerns me. This just isn’t the spot that you want to be too heavy on. I’d stick with a bat like Khris Davis as an against the grain play. He’s on the better side of the splits and will either strikeout 3 times or put a ball into the seats.
A’s Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Khris Davis, Matt Olson
A’s Probable Starter – Daniel Mengden, RHP
3.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 16.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .212 average, .261 wOBA, 45.2 fly ball rate and 41.5 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .240 average, .299 wOBA, 27.6 fly ball rate and 33.9 hard contact rate
The last outing was a very poor one for Mengden and it’s about time a team got to this guy. His metrics have long suggested regression was coming for him and the Astros could continue to help him towards that tonight. You just can’t pitch to contact against Houston and not pay for it. It’s not a shock but the Astros best hitters are also the leaders in wOBA against righties. Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and George Springer are all excellent and a 1-4 stack could be a big time late night hammer. It’s a big slate and the game is late. It could fly under the radar if players are just looking at overall stats from Mengden. I don’t think I’d go for a one-off here but if you wanted to, I’d lean towards Altuve or Correa. Altuve is flat-out a great hitter and Correa is a top option at shortstop.
Astros Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa
Secondary Options – George Springer, Alex Bregman
Home Run Pick – Carlos Correa
DSF MLB – Rangers at Dodgers
Rangers Probable Starter – Bartolo Colon, RHP
4.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 15.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .225 average, .282 wOBA, 33.0 fly ball rate and 41.5 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .247 average, .335 wOBA, 30.4 fly ball rate and 46.4 hard contact rate
Everyone’s favorite husky and rotund pitcher is on the mound and it’s sometimes not as easy as just “target all the hitters against him”. Colon is not in play for me at all and he has started to bleed runs a little bit more than at the start of the year. Colon’s fastball is so slow I actually look at change-up data as well and Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy all stand out. As much as I’m fine playing Muncy recently, he’s up to $3,900 on FanDuel. No thank you. Taylor and Bellinger are a little more reasonable and there’s nothing wrong with a Dodgers stack in tournaments.
Dodgers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger, Matt Kemp
Secondary Options –Joc Pederson, Yasmani Grandal, Max Muncy
Dodgers Probable Starter – Caleb Ferguson, LHP
21.60 ERA, 3.00 WHIP and 27.3 strikeout rate
Things didn’t exactly go well in Ferguson’s first career big league start. It’s not a surprise either since he’s had just eight innings outside of AA this year. He’s not really ready to pitch in the majors on a consistent basis yet and the Rangers are in a really solid spot. The Texas lineup has plenty of potential tonight but I might reserve it for GPP since the Dodgers will likely be in the bullpen often. I’d chase the best hitters in this spot like Adrian Beltre, Nomar Mazara and Joey Gallo. He can hit a homer off of anyone in baseball right now. Shin-soo Choo is always a solid floor play in a cash lineup as well as tournaments. The top five or six players in the Rangers lineup are all pretty good plays tonight and Ferguson is definitely off the radar.
Rangers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Adrian Beltre, Joey Gallo
Secondary Options – Jurickson Profar, Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields, Shin-soo Choo
Home Run Pick – Adrian Beltre
SEATTLE, WA – SEPTEMBER 20: Mitch Haniger #17 of the Seattle Mariners hits a solo home run off of starting pitcher Andrew Cashner #54 of the Texas Rangers during the third inning of a game at Safeco Field on September 20, 2017 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
DFS MLB – Angels at Mariners
Angels Probable Starter – Jamie Barria, RHP
2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 20.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .186 average, .227 wOBA, 37.7 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .246 average, .322 wOBA, 42.3 fly ball rate and 38.5 hard contact rate
First thing to do when talking about the Angels is pour one out for our friend Shohei Ohtani. It appears he may need Tommy John and might not take the field until 2020. If you’re a bsaeball fan, this is just terrible news and hopefully he gets back as soon as possible. Barria has been shuttled back and forth between AAA this season but continues to pitch well and may find himself in the rotation to stay. I think the Mariners are fine tonight but they all seem expensive, at least on FanDuel. Dee Gordon and Denard Span are the cheapest but Barria has controlled lefties so far to a major extent. Mitch Haniger and Nelson Cruz could work but they’re both up over $3,500. I will basically never pay $3,900 for Jean Segura.
Mariners Hitters to Target
Elite Options -Nelson Cruz
Secondary Options – Mitch Haniger, Ryon Healy
Mariners Probable Starter – Mike Leake, RHP
4.46 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 14.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .263 average, .306 wOBA, 31.4 fly ball rate and 38.7 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .281 average, .363 wOBA, 31.3 fly ball rate and 39.5 hard contact rate
The metrics for Leake are inflated by a couple of poor starts and I’m always cautious with him. You really can’t play him tonight against an Angels team that carries a low strikeout rate. Even if he doesn’t give up a lot of runs, you’re depending a quality start and a win to boost your point total. Mike Trout went toe to toe with Nelson Cruz as they both hit two home runs a piece. Trout is fine as is Justin Upton and even Ian Kinsler. I think this game goes vastly un-owned and I can’t fully argue that. Other than the studs, I’ll likely pass this game over in favor of others.
Angels Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Mike Trout
Secondary Options – Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler
Home Run Pick – Mitch Haniger
DFS MLB FanDuel Sample Lineup
P – Miles Mikolas
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C/1B – C.J. Cron
2B – Jonathan Villar
3B – Anthony Rendon
SS – Ehrie Adrianza
OF – Daniel Palka, Alex Gordon, Jesse Winker
Utility – Freddie Freeman
I’ve said it before but if you’re still with me at this point of the article, I genuinely appreciate you reading this much. These big slates are a bear, it takes time out of your day to read it, and I’m hoping this helps fantasy players out there. Anyways, I’m siding with Mikolas as things stand for my pitcher of choice. Sometimes it’s tough when there’s not the ace that’s in five digits to make a decision. I love the spot Cron is in and I’m hoping he’s one of my lower owned players. Villar has been hot lately and he could find his way on base at least once or twice against Chatwood. Rendon is a slam dunk, Adrianza is a nice cheap fit and we build a value outfield to fit one more big bat in Freeman. The outfield is one of my favorite parts looking at this lineup and I think they could be ma for difference maker.
The Core – Jesse Winker, Anthony Rendon, C.J. Cron, Daniel Palka
Stacks to Consider – Reds(at Kansas City), Astros(at Oakland), Red Sox(at Baltimore), Braves(vs New York Mets) and Indians(at Chicago White Sox)
As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.