Welcome into the Saturday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have a nine game afternoon slate today so let’s get busy!
We were able to conquer the massive 14 DFS MLB game slate last night even though we got very little help from our one big spend, Max Muncy. Chris Sale was totally dominant and most of the hitters cam through, including a rare home run from Denard Span. Tat’s not why I rostered him but I’ll take it where I can get it. Last night is in the rear view so let’s get moving to be ready for the 4:05 lock today!
DFS MLB – Phillies at Pirates
Phillies Probable Starter – Jake Arrieta, RHP
3.54 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 16.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .261 average, .324 wOBA, 15.3 K rate, 30.4 fly ball rate and 27.2 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .238 average, .288 wOBA, 17.2 K rate, 24.8 fly ball rate and 28.8 hard hit rate
This is going to be a very rare time when I’m not going to put a ton of stats into the analysis. As a lifelong Bucco fan, Arrieta just destroys the Pirates and pretty much always has. It’s just one of those things. When he was at the height of his powers, he broke the hearts of Pirates fans in the playoffs and his best start came this season against Pittsburgh. I personally will not play a single Pirate. If you want to, you want lefties that can hit the fastball and cutter combo, which make up about 78 percent of Arrieta’s arsenal. Colin Moran is a great value again as is Gregory Polanco. Moran would be my choice because he’s cheaper, he rates better against the pitch type and he has a higher wOBA. Polanco is still ver affordable if you want to go that route as well, but he doesn’t hit the cutter very well.
Pirates Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Gregory Polanco, Colin Moran
Pirates Probable Starter – Jameson Taillon, RHP
4.05 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 22.0 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .263 average, .335 wOBA, 18.0 K rate, 30.5 fly ball rate and 34.6 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .233 average, .273 wOBA, 25.9 K rate, 31.4 fly ball rate and 31.2 hard hit rate
Things had been going a lot better for Taillon until his last start where he got touched up by the Padres. He has introduced a slider which had been getting positive results but his season long pitch types still lean to the fastball and curve combo. Lefties hit Taillon better and both Carlos Santana and Odubel Herrera hit lefty and they both rate positively against the curve and fastball combo. The slider would be a bit of a concern since they are both negative against that pitch but Taillon just hasn’t shown enough consistency for me to be too worried about that. Santana and Herrera are the best lefty options as far as wOBA and ISO are concerned aswell so they have a lot of factors leaning their way this afternoon. Much like yesterday, I would lean away from Rhys Hoskins since he’s a righty and the worst slider hitter on the Phillies. He does mash the fastball so there’s always a chance.
Phillies Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Carlos Santana, Odubel Herrera
Secondary Options –Cesar Hernandez, Nick Williams, Rhys Hoskins
Home Run Pick – Nick Williams
DFS MLB – Cardinals at Giants
Cardinals Probable Starter – Carlos Martinez, RHP
3.20 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 22.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .217 average, .293 wOBA, 19.9 K rate, 35.1 fly ball rate and 35.3 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .240 average, .319 wOBA, 27.1 K rate, 27.8 fly ball rate and 39.8 hard hit rate
We finally have the real Carlos Martinez back as he’s gone consecutive starts with over 40 FanDuel points against the Indians and the Diamondbacks. His price point is awfully appealing since he’s facing a Giants team that ranks in the top 10 in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and since he’s in AT&T Park. There’s a whopping six pitchers that carry a higher salary than Martinez on FanDuel and I do think he’s a rock solid option. The best hitters for the Giants this season have been lefty hitters and they’ve been controlled by Martinez all year. I don’t think there’s a lot to chase for the Giants hitters in this matchup. The Cardinals righty throws an 85 percent mix of the fastball, cutter and slider. Brandon Crawford is the only hitter that carries a positive rating against all three with Brandon Belt and Andrew McCutchen being the best fastball hitters on the squad.
Giants Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Andrew McCutchen
Giants Probable Starter – Jeff Samardzija, RHP
6.56 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and 15.7 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .307 average, .416 wOBA, 17.6 K rate, 52.1 fly ball rate and 30.6 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .225 average, .302 wOBA, 14.1 K rate, 40.6 fly ball rate and 29.9 hard hit rate
We’re early in the process in breaking down this slate but Matt Carpenter might be close to locked in for me. Samardzija hasn’t been able to get lefties out at any point this season and Carpenter has been back on a tear lately. His price is a super affordable $3,600 on FanDuel and he’s the team leader in wOBA and ISO(among regular players) against righties this season. If Jose Martinez gets back into the lineup today, he’s the best combo of hitting fastballs and sliders, which are the main two pitchers for Samardzjia. This is going to be the first start for the Giants righty off the disabled list so I’m inclined to think about a Cardinals stack here, regardless of the splits. Samardzjia himself is not in play for me at all.
Cardinals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Matt Carpenter, Jose Martinez
Secondary Options – Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham, Kolten Wong
Home Run Pick – Jose Martinez
DFS MLB – Yankees at Blue Jays
Yankees Probable Starter – Luis Severino, RHP
1.98 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 30.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .188 average, .238 wOBA, 32.1 K rate, 30.3 fly ball rate and 34.6 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .198 average, .238 wOBA, 28.7 K rate, 34.8 fly ball rate and 30.2 hard hit rate
The highest priced pitcher on the slate is Luis Severino and as good as he’s been this season, he almost certainly will not make my final lineup. There’s just too many other ace caliber pitchers that are in really good spots and a couple of them are significantly cheaper. Given the smaller size of the slate, I won’t be chasing any Blue Jays bats. There is virtually no upside to be had other than stack the best hitters and praying Severino has a really poor start. Severino shows a fastball or a slider 86 percent of the time and the best hitters against those two pitches are Justin Smoak and Teoscar Hernandez.
Blue Jays Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary options – Justin Smoak, Tesocar Hernandez
Blue Jays Probable Starter – J.A. Happ, LHP
4.03 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 26.3 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .169 average, .188 wOBA, 29.1 K rate, 23.1 fly ball rate and 25.9 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .235 average, .307 wOBA, 25.6 K rate, 44.8 fly ball rate and 29.6 hard hit rate
I’m usually not one to try to target against Happ because he’s a pretty solid pitcher. As a matter of fact, he’s pitched pretty well against the current Yankee roster, giving up just a .235 average and a .315 wOBA. Here’s the issue for Happ. He throws his fastball a whopping 73.6 percent of the time and Giancarlo Stanton is a top 10 hitter against that pitch this season. Oh, he’s also the baseball version of Thanos in Avengers: Infinity War because he makes lefty pitching fade away into nothing. In 99 plate appearances, he carries a 1.163 OPS, .414 ISO and a .473 wOBA. He’s another borderline lock for me on this slate. Aaron Hicks and Miguel Andujar would be next up for me as they both have an ISO over .285 against lefties. Hicks is the better option and slightly more expensive.
Yankees Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks
Secondary Options – Miguel Andujar, Aaron Judge
Home Run Pick – Giancarlo Stanton
DFS MLB – Braves at Brewers
Braves Probable Starter – Anibal Sanchez, RHP
2.89 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .193 average, .296 wOBA, 27.1 K rate, 38.6 fly ball rate and 28.1 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .221 average, .288 wOBA, 18.3 K rate, 43.8 fly ball rate and 24.2 hard hit rate
The pitch data really won’t be a whole lot of help to us in this spot because Sanchez throws a bunch of different pitches. The spits aren’t really such that we should be hammering one side of the plate or another so we’re just going to use who hits righty pitching well for the Brewers. In a small sample size, Brad Miller leads the team in wOBA but three hitters have a higher ISO in Jesus Aguilar, Eric Thames and Travis Shaw. The Milwaukee lineup has been scoring some runs on Atlanta pitching this series and I think that’s going to continue this afternoon. The only cheap option is Miller but Shaw isn’t that expensive. I would just rather play Matt Carpenter in that 3B slot for $100 more.
Brewers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Brad Miller, Jesus Aguilar
Secondary Options – Eric Thames, Christian Yelich
Brewers Probable Starter – Aaron Wilkerson, RHP
*Career stats, 13.1 IP* 6.08 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 19.0 strikeout rate
Brent Suter was supposed to make this start but was placed on the disabled list yesterday. Wilkerson has virtually no track record to fall back on but what we do know is he throws a fastball that averages 88 MPH and a slider in addition to being a fly ball pitcher. In other words, the Braves stack looks awfully good tonight. What’s really interesting is Freddie Freeman is the best hitter based on the pitch data, and is tied for first on the team in wOBA against righties and is cheaper than Ozzie Albies today. Freeman hasn’t been very good for fantasy lately with only with only four double-digit efforts in his last 19 games but this could be the day he comes back to life. He and Albies are a true coin flip of who I would rather play but I might lean slightly towards Freeman. Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis are in play as well. Keep an eye on Ronald Acuna, who left yesterday’s game with an injury.
Braves Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies
Secondary Options –Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte, Johan Carmago
Home Run Pick – Brad Miller and Freddie Freeman breaks the drought
DFS MLB – White Sox at Astros
White Sox Probable Starter – James Shields, RHP
4.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 15.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .194 average, .284 wOBA, 16.5 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 30.7 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .252 average, .308 wOBA, 15.2 K rate, 44.3 fly ball rate and 35.8 hard hit rate
I will continue to pound the table regularly to say that Shields has actually been a reasonably solid major league pitcher this year…while simultaneously not wanting anything to do with him today against the Astros. I really don’t believe that I’ll pay up to stack the Houston offense just to watch another Shields troll job but he’s certainly not in a good spot. Houston ranks as one of the better offenses against righty pitching in average, ISO, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. The only three hitters that I’m really weighing are Josh Reddick due to his low price and Jose Altuve or Alex Bregman just because they’re the best hitter the Astros have on their team right now. They’re also the team leaders in wOBA. Houston will score some runs but I don’t think it’s an avalanche.
Astros Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Alex Bregman
Secondary Options – Jose Altuve, Josh Reddick
Astros Probable Starter – Charlie Morton, RHP
2.55 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 31.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .183 average, .283 wOBA, 39.8 K rate, 31.9 fly ball rate and 41.7 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .209 average, .276 wOBA, 23.2 K rate, 23.9 fly ball rate and 28.9 hard hit rate
Given the strikeout rate to lefties and the fact that Morton might face three of them in the top four of the batting order, he’s really in a prime spot tonight. “Ground Chuck” does offer a discount from the very top end but there’s a pitcher who’s in an even better spot for $900 cheaper in a different game. I’m passing on all White Sox hitters and I think the only one you can make a small argument for as a tournament play is Jose Abreu. Even then, the pitch data doesn’t look promising for him as he’s league average against the fastball and curve, Morton’s two main weapons.
White Sox Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Jose Abreu
Home Run Pick – Josh Reddick
DFS MLB – Rockies at Mariners
Rockies Probable Starter – Kyle Freeland, LHP
3.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 19.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .219 average, .268 wOBA, 28.7 K rate, 34.3 fly ball rate and 29.2 hard hit rate
VS RHH – .235 average, .301 wOBA, 16.2 K rate, 33.5 fly ball rate and 30.1 hard hit rate
If there’s a way to fit Stanton, an ace pitcher and Nelson Cruz into the same lineup, I’m going to try very hard to find it. Cruz mashes lefties to the tune of a 1.127 OPS, .406 ISO and .457 wOBA. Those numbers are even better when he squares off against a lefty at home and he might be just a hair better of a play than Stanton. It’s very close because Cruz also rates well against the fastball/cutter combo that Freeland throws around 80 percent of the time. Mitch Haniger would be a solid play as well but he might not be in the lineup tonight. Jean Segura has a lot of things gong for him from a pitch data and wOBA perspective, but the $4,000 price tag is super unappealing with the other plays on the slate.
Mariners Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger(if active)
Secondary Options – Jean Segura
Mariners Probable Starter – James Paxton, LHP
3.39 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 32.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .313 average, .377 wOBA, 35.2 K rate, 24.5 fly ball rate and 30.6 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .186 average, .259 wOBA, 31.8 K rate, 44.5 fly ball rate and 36.4 hard hit rate
This side of the game is a GPP special in my eyes. I love James Paxton but this is a very dangerous matchup for him. Even on the road, the offense as a whole is around middle of the pack in the major offensive categories and that’s largely driven by the fact Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story wreck lefty pitching no matter the venue. Paxton is a great pitcher and could throw up a 50 spot on FanDuel and it wouldn’t surprise me. His fastball and curveball gets thrown about 85 percent of the time and Arenado and Story both rate well against those two pitches. If you’re a believer in the splits, Charlie Blackmon would be a great play because he also hits fastballs and curves well. Nobody will play Blackmon versus a lefty as good as Paxton and the Colorado outfielder hit a homer yesterday, perhaps waking up a little.
Rockies Hiters to target
Elite Options – Nolan Arenado
Secondary Options – Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
Home Run Pick – Nelson Cruz
DFS MLB – A’s at Indians
A’s Probable Starter – Edwin Jackson, RHP
2.13 ERA, 0.63 WHIP and 27.7 strikeout rate(12.2 IP)
Vs LHH – .154 average, .225 wOBA, 26.9 K rate, 63.2 fly ball rate and 21.1 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .191 average, .224 wOBA, 28.6 K rate, 38.5 fly ball rate and 26.7 hard hit rate
I’m not even going to pretend to sit here and know what to make of the first two starts for Jackson this season. When I saw he was back in the majors, my first instinct was a to attack him. I hasn’t paid off yet but even a baseball novice would tell you regression is on the way. It may well come today because Jackson just faced this Indians offense. His fastball and cutter mixed in with a slider 20 percent of the time aren’t likely to fool Cleveland two starts in a row. Michael Brantley is the best option against all three pitches but Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez remain elite plays as well. Saving about $1,000 with Brantley seems tempting, even if the upside isn’t quite the same. I have no issues with a Cleveland stack if we find the right values at other spots.
Indians Hitters to target
Elite Options- Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley
Secondary Options – Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis, Yonder Alonso
Indians Probable Starter – Corey Kluber, RHP
2.64 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 26.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .199 average, .248 wOBA, 28.5 K rate, 29.9 fly ball rate and 35.2 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .215 average, .254 wOBA, 24.7 K rate, 32.0 fly ball rate and 39.1 hard hit rate
I may not be paying all the way up to him today but I’m not bold enough to play A’s hitters against one of the better pitchers in baseball. I guess you could take a stab at Dustin Fowler and hope he steals a bag or possibly Khris Davis in the hopes he runs into one, but it just doesn’t seem like a good route to take. Any A’s hitter will be virtually unowned but there’s also a reason for that.
A’s Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – None
Home Run Pick – Michael Brantley
DFS MLB – Rays at Mets
Rays Probable Starter – Blake Snell, LHP
2.24 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 28.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .122 average, .169 wOBA, 33.3 K rate, 29.8 fly ball rate and 34.5 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .195 average, .281 wOBA, 27.3 K rate, 41.3 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard hit rate
We’ve finally come to my pitcher of choice with Blake Snell. Not only is Snell one of the better pitchers in baseball this year, the Mets are the worst team in the league against lefties. They have the second highest strikeout rate, are dead last in average, OPS, 29th in ISO, 29th in wOBA and 29th in wRC+. Snell should be able to have his way with this lineup even on the road and he’s under $10,000 on FanDuel. There’s not a single Mets hitter that I would play this afternoon.
Mets Hitters to target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – None
Mets Probable Starter – Steven Matz, LHP
3.46 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 21.7 strikeout rates
Vs LHH – .194 average, .278 wOBA, 18.0 K rate, 17.6 fly ball rate and 9.4 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .234 average, .323 wOBA, 22.8 K rate, 38.1 fly ball rate and 39.0 hard hit rate
Matz is in the middle of a rock solid year and I’m not sure just how many Rays hitters we would want today. C.J. Cron would be the most interesting. Matz throws his fastball almost 60 percent of the time and compliments that with a changeup and curveball mix. Cron not only rates well against that pitch mix but also has a .353 wOBA and .213 ISO. His price of $3,000 on FanDuel is nice as well. Wilson Ramos isn’t a terrible option but they’re so similar in price I would lean towards Cron. The most interesting part of this side of this game is Matz and he might be the value pitcher we need if we’re repaying up for hitters. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if we got a pitching duel here.
Rays Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options –C.J. Cron, Wilson Ramos
Home Run Pick – Wilson Ramos
DFS MLB – Rangers at Tigers
Rangers Probable Starter – Cole Hamels, LHP
4.05 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 23.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .276 average, .342 wOBA, 16.4 K rate, 26.1 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .238 average, .336 wOBA, 24.9 K rate, 35.1 fly ball rate and 46.1 hard hit rate
Hamels has one of the worst problems a starting pitcher can have and that’s he can’t stop serving up home runs. Of the 20 he’s given up so far, 19 have come from righty hitters. Detroit is also a much better team against lefty pitching so they could be a quiet stacking option. Nicholas Castellanos has smashed lefty pitching with a .491 wOBA and he’s on red-alert to go yard today. Jeimer Candelario and John Hicks are also very much in play. I’m not 100 percent sure Hamels gets knocked around in this spot but it wouldn’t be a surprise and I’ll bet he gives up at least two home runs. Niko Goodrum is really expensive but he crushes fastballs and Hamels throws that and a cutter about 66 percent of the time.
Tigers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Nicholas Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario
Secondary Options –John Hicks, James McCann, Niko Goodrum
Tigers Probable Starter – Mike Fiers, RHP
3.79 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 17.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .249 average, .327 wOBA, 17.2 K rate, 43.9 fly ball rate and 35.5 hard hit rate
Vs RHH – .259 average, .320 wOBA, 17.6 K rate, 45.2 fly ball rate and 36.9 hard hit rate
Fiers has been a lot better than anyone would assume and he’s a rare pitcher that can make a super high fly ball rate work, for the most part. He throws a big mix of pitches so that route doesn’t stand out. The one man we certainly have to look at is Shin-soo Choo just because all the dude does is get on base. For some reason, his price is down to $3,500 which is not a large ask at all. Against righties, Choo quietly has a .406 wOBA and a .258 ISO. That might be about the limit of my Rangers exposure unless you go with a full stack. As some folks saw last night, there is always risk with the Texas offense.
Rangers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Shin-soo Choo
Secondary Options – Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, Elvis Andrus
Home Run Pick – Nicholas Castellanos
FanDuel Sample Lineup
P – Blake Snell
More from FanSided
- Shohei Ohtani Rumors: The best trade package from every NL East team
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
C/1B – John Hicks
2B – Kolten Wong
3B – Matt Carpenter
SS – Brad Miller
OF – Giancarlo Stanton, Shin-soo Choo, Nick Williams
Utility – Josh Reddick
For a slate that has so many offenses in spots that I like and a nice discount with Snell over the other aces, this build is fairly difficult. Snell and Stanton are the two must-haves on this slate I believe. Choo isn’t that far behind so after that, we’ll lock in two lefties from the Cardinals in Carpenter and Wong. Williams is mostly a punt and we’ll just hope that the Philly offense stays hot. Reddick isn’t that far from the same category although you can’t help but feel like Shields is due for a poor start.
The Core – Blake Snell, Giancarlo Stanton
Pitching to Consider
High End – Luis Severino, Charlie Morton
Mid Range – Blake Snell, Carlos Martinez
Value – Steven Matz
Stacks to Consider – Cleveland Indians, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers
As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.
Add us as a preferred source on Google