DraftKings Early MLB Picks July 7: Which ace looks best?

We have a top heavy Saturday with 11 of the 15 games taking place in the afternoon. Most of the action is on this slate, so get those lineups in on time! We have a lot of aces, and a tier just below the aces with plenty of good arms in it. Which way do we go on this slate? Let’s take a look!

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We avoid rain today, but there is a nasty 15 mph crosswind in Minneapolis. It is blowing slightly towards left, so it could help right handed batters a little. The normal 16 mph wind out to center is present in San Francisco. There is also a 15 mph wind in from right in Cleveland, which could help to keep scoring down again.

We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!

These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!

For you first time players, if you would like $20 in free DraftKings dollars, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!

Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays

Top Tier:

Luis Severino ($13,000): Severino doesn’t have very good numbers against the Jays, but he has turned into an ace this year. Severino should start the All Star game for the American League. The Jays shouldn’t really scare anyone off. Severino has held the Jays to a .221 average and 21 strikeouts in 86 at bats.

Blake Snell ($12,700): The Mets are clawing their way back to average on offense, but Snell has been dominant lately. He has back to back double digit strikeout games, putting up more than 30 DraftKings points in both of them. One of those was against the Astros. Yeah, the Mets don’t scare me. Snell could be dominant here.

James Paxton ($12,500): The Rockies are a combined 3-39(.077) with 16 strikeouts and just one run lifetime against Paxton. That is complete and total domination. Paxton is definitely worth the money, even though the Rockies have hit lefties pretty well no matter where they play them. Still, Paxton isn’t your average lefty. Even if the Rockies do get a couple of homers off of him, the strikeouts will make you forget about that in a hurry.

Charlie Morton ($12,200): Morton has dominated at home, posting a 2.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 83 strikeouts in 62 innings. Morton holds a 26.3 DraftKings points per game average in those ten games. As we well know, the White Sox are below average in runs and above average in strikeouts. Don’t be surprised if Morton posts the highest score of the afternoon.

Corey Kluber ($11,800): The A’s are hitting just .169 against Kluber with three homers and four runs in 65 at bats with a whopping 25 strikeouts. Saying that Severino has more strikeout upside is a little off base. I prefer Kluber today because of the better past stats, but you can’t go wrong with any of these aces. I actually think that Kluber may be overlooked with all of the great options above him.

Middle Tier:

Cole Hamels ($9,600): The Tigers are hitting just .158 against Hamels in 57 at bats with just one homer, two runs, and a solid 13 strikeouts. Hamels has had an up and down season, but he finds himself in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the league against one of the worst offenses. Hamels is a suitable alternative for paying up for a top tier pitcher.

Kyle Freeland ($9,200): The Mariners have limited experience against Freeland so far, but what has me feeling this is Freeland’s overall numbers. He has a 3.25 ERA on the season, and that’s with seven starts at Coors Field. We saw Marquez stifle the Mariners last night. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if Freeland does the same, though most of Seattle’s power is from the right side with Cano suspended.

Carlos Martinez ($8,100): The Giants are hitting just .163 against Martinez in 86 at bats with only one homer, six runs, and 20 strikeouts. Martinez was not very good in his first four starts off the DL, but he has racked up 48 DraftKings points in two starts since against Arizona and Cleveland. The Giants don’t have near the offense of either of those teams. I love Martinez at this price today.

Bargain Pitchers:

Mike Fiers ($6,900): Fiers is one of those guys that is good when used in the right situation. That would seem to be against weaker teams at home. Fiers has a 3.19 ERA in eight home starts. He put up a solid 18.4 DraftKings points in his first start against Texas this year. If he comes up with that total again, I don’t think any of us will complain.

Jake Arrieta ($6,300): Arrieta has struggled on the road this year, but he was absolutely dominant in his first start against the Pirates this year. Arrieta racked up 38 DraftKings points, giving up just one hit in seven shutout innings. The Pirates are only hitting .232, but they do have eight homers and 18 runs in 177 at bats against Arrieta. Those are pedestrian numbers, but what do you expect for this price? Arrieta could be a decent value today.

Steven Matz ($6,100): Matz has posted a quality start in every game since June 1st with the exception of a game in Coors. Hey, that happens. What’s shocking to me is that Matz is still this cheap. He posts solid strikeout numbers, but doesn’t go very deep into games. That does limit his upside, but I’ll take a half dozen strikeouts and two runs over six innings any day for this price.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Tyler Chatwood:

Chatwood has had a pretty good year, but the Reds have scored five or more runs in seven of the last ten games. Chatwood has a 5.40 ERA, so there are runs to be had here. Leading this off will be Cub killer Billy Hamilton. Yes, that Billy Hamilton. You need him to afford Votto, Suarez, Scooter, and Scott Schebler.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Jameson Taillon:

Taillon has started twice against the Phillies, and both times have been disastrous. He has allowed two homers and eight runs in just 25 at bats! The Phillies lit up the Pirates pitching last night. They could here as well, but the Pirates need innings out of Taillon. He could be allowed to worth through trouble where Williams was not. At any rate, I like Hoskins and Herrera here. They have the homers. Cesar Hernandez has four RBI in five at bats against Taillon. Nick Williams is worth a look on the cheap, and even Carlos Santana is reasonably priced.

St Louis Cardinals vs. Jeff Samardzija:

Shark has a 6.56 ERA on the season, and this is his first start since May 29th. He looked good in his latest rehab start, but Samardzija still gave up two homers in that one. I don’t expect much from Samardzija in his first start back. I think he will be fine in a couple of starts, but I would much rather use Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham, and the newly activated Paul DeJong. Dexter Fowler has a homer against Shark. Yadier Molina and Marcell Ozuna look good here too.

Cleveland Indians vs. Edwin Jackson:

The Tribe are only hitting .217 off of Jackson, but they have five homers in just 83 at bats against him. Yonder Alonso has two of them. Edwin, Francisco Lindor, and Jose Ramirez have the others. My Indians stack was the best lineup of last night. It very well could be today as well. I also like Brantley and Roberto Perez on the cheap here if you need salary relief.

Atlanta Braves vs. Aaron Wilkerson:

Wilkerson has a strong 2.08 ERA at AAA this season, but the issue here is that Wilkerson is 29, and has pitched mostly in relief. He isn’t going deep into this game, but the Braves are good enough offensively to send him to an even earlier shower. Freeman and Ozzie Albies are elite plays. Markakis and whoever starts at catcher would be a notch below, along with Dansby Swanson.

Houston Astros vs. James Shields:

Shields has managed to pitch pretty well lately. He has not given up more than three earned runs in a start since June 7th despite allowing six unearned to Oakland two weeks back. The luck is probably going to run out here. Houston is hitting .316 off of Shields. Reddick has three homers and five RBI off of Shields, and comes relatively cheap. Gurriel, Springer, Altuve, Gattis, and Bregman are all very good plays here.

Top Tier:

Matt Harvey pitched well against the Cubs a couple of weeks ago, but his career numbers against them still aren’t very good. Rizzo, Heyward, Schwarber, and Ian Happ have all homered off of him in the past. My favorites for today would be Rizzo and Happ.

I’m not going to stack against J.A. Happ. He is too good for that. However, picking and choosing Yankee power is much safer than using Happ. Stanton has homered twice off of him already. Judge, Brett Gardner, and Aaron Hicks have taken him deep as well.

Anibal Sanchez has been really solid for the Braves this year, but the stat correction is happening. Sanchez has allowed nine runs over his last three starts. I like Yelich, Thames, and maybe some Ryan Braun today.

Arenado is still pretty expensive against James Paxton, but he has destroyed left handed pitching on the road as well. Arenado is the only Rockies play that I would seriously consider though.

Nelson Cruz is definitely worth a look with a lefty on the mound. Guillermo Heredia has a homer off of Freeland already, so he is a great way to save money. Freeland is a really good pitcher, so stacking isn’t at the top of my to do list. However, cheap Mariner righties are worth a look along with Cruz.

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Middle Tier:

The Twins have hit Kevin Gausman pretty hard, and this park plays as more of a hitter’s park than you may think. Just ask Kyle Gibson. Eduardo Escobar and Dozier have the homers off of Gausman. I’m also interested in Mauer, who has five runs and three RBI against Gausman, and Kepler if you’re going for a stack.

Joey Gallo and Elvis Andrus have both homered twice against Mike Fiers. Profar, DeShields, Odor, and Beltre have also joined the homer party against Fiers, but this offense isn’t doing very well right now with the exception of Thursday. I would be judicial with Texas picks since Fiers is strong at home.

Todd Frazier has hit much better at home, and is about the only Met that I would consider here. Unless you are going to ride the wave of Jose Bautista‘s walk off grand slam.

The Rays are quietly tough on lefties. They wont be an elite offense any time soon, but Matt Duffy and Wilson Ramos are certainly worth a look on the cheap.

Matt Chapman has homered twice and doubled in three plate appearances against Corey Kluber.

Bargain Shoppers:

I just can’t bring myself to stack Orioles, but Gibson’s struggles at home are well documented. Adam Jones is only 5-22(.227) against Gibson, but he has four homers off of him. Trumbo and Chris Davis have taken him deep as well.

If you don’t trust Severino here, the Jays that have hit him hard are really cheap. Justin Smoak is 6-16 with two homers and five RBI. Teoscar Hernandez has a solo shot off of Severino. So does Kevin Pillar. They are all $3,500 or less.

Next: DraftKings Main Slate MLB Picks

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