Fantasy Football 2018: Sunday Night Football Week 2
Last week I started a series where I use advanced expert projections to decide if those expert fantasy football projections can predict winners regarding game lines and player prop bets. This method went 5 for 6 last Sunday and 1 for 3 on Monday night. Good enough for a 67% hit rate, 6 for 9 on the season. This week the Sunday Night Football game goes under the microscope.
Fantasy Football 2018: Using Projections to Beat the Week 2 Odds
Giants @ Cowboys 8:20pm
The Over/Under for total NY Giants points in the contest is 20.5.
According to expert consensus rankings found at fantasypros.com, the Giants Skill players project to score 22.29 points. Here’s how I determined this:
1 TD = 6 points, 1 FG = 3 points, 1 XP = 1 point
- QB: Eli Manning — 23/39 for 270 yards & 1.9 TD’s. 1.9 TD = 11.4 points
- RB: Saquon Barkley — 19/ 80 rushing with .53 TD’s & 4/ 38 with .13 TD’s receiving. (.53 + .13 = .66) .66 TD = 3.96 points
- WR: OBJ — 7/ 99 & .64 TD’s. .64 TD = 3.84 points
- WR: Sterling Shephard –5/ 59 & .27 TD’s. .27 TD = 1.62 points
- TE: Evan Engram –4/ 48 & .38 TD’s. .38 TD = 2.28 points
- K: 1.82 FG & 1.97 XP. 1.82 FG = 5.46 points. 1.97 XP =1.97 points. 5.46 +1.97 = 7.43 points
- The Giants’ fringe skill players combine for a total of .04 points.
Total of projected points = 28.29. (Subtract 6 points because Manning’s 1 TD cancels out 1 Giant receiving TD) The adjusted projected point total for the Giants is 22.29.
Prediction: The Giants will go over 20.5 points.
The Over/Under for total Dallas Cowboys points in the contest is also 20.5.
- QB: Dak Prescott — 20/ 31 for 223 passing yards & 1.3 TD’s. 1.3 TD = 7.8 points
- RB: Ezekiel Elliot — 20/ 93 rushing with .78 TD & 3/ 27 receiving with .07 TD (.78 +.07 = .85) .85 TD = 5.1 points
- WR: All Cowboys WR’s combine for 1 TD. 1 TD = 6 points
- TE: All Cowboys TE’s combine for .18 TD. .18 TD = 1.08 points
- K: Brett Maher — 1.64 FG & 2.23 XP. 1.64 FG = 4.92 points. 2.23 XP = 2.23 points 4.92 + 2.23 = 7.15 points
Total of projected points = 27.13 (Subtract 6 because a QB TD cancels out a WR TD)
The adjusted projected point total for the Cowboys is 21.13.
Prediction: The Cowboys will go over 20.5 points
The Cowboys are favored by 3 points.
Projections have the Giants winning outright 22.29 to 21.13.
Prediction: The Cowboys will not cover 3 points
The total Over/Under is 41.5 points.
Projections have the total at 43.42 points.
Prediction: The Giants @ Cowboys game will go over 41.5 points.
Thanks for reading. If this is interesting to you, check back tomorrow for Monday Night’s game projection predictions.
Follow me @DynastyJaco on Twitter for answers to anything you got.