Welcome to the Wednesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
It did not take much to win a GPP on Tuesday’s three game NBA DFS slate as winning tournament scores did not even reach 300 fantasy points but frankly when only one player (Chris Paul) goes for over 50 fantasy points, it should be expected that scores will be lower. For me it was a total throw away night but that’s what happens when you roll the dice and stack the Suns who were down 25 to the Spurs by the end of the 3rd quarter. I understood that risk going in and was prepared to lose my single GPP dart on a three game slate and well, I will write that one off as a donation to the NBA DFS Gods and get ready for a much better slate today/
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – 11 Game NBA DFS Slate:
Before we jump into today’s NBA DFS action – we have another FREE ROLL from our friends at FantasyDraft who continue to sponsor these Picks and Pivots Free Rolls each day! I say it every day, but I cannot thank them enough for offering up the chance to win 10 tickets to the following night’s NBA DFS contests and hopefully you guys are all taking advantage of this and getting exposure to what I believe is the most fun DFS platform available.
Let’s just jump right in and go right to the best spot on the board and the most critical decision you are going to make tonight. How much exposure do you plan on getting to the Oklahoma City Thunder and New Orleans Pelicans?
This game checks off all the boxes for an all-in game stack as my man Joe Metz breaks down in today’s Game Stack DFS preview and it becomes the most important decision you make in your roster builds in my opinion as getting exposure here feels like a necessity.
Run down the list with me will ya?
- Highest Vegas Total – 232
- Tight spread – 2 points
- Fastest projected pace game
- The only game where both teams see a pace boost of more than 2 possession each
Over the last 10 games, OKC is playing at the 2nd fastest pace in the league while the Pelicans rank 7th so this is going to be an all-out track meet and with the players involved it becomes a scary fade.
Anytime you can target a game environment like this that has slate breaking studs like Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis, I think it becomes a spot you need to stop and find out if it is possible to even game stack this spot on FantasyDraft.
You don’t need me to tell you Westbrook and AD are elite plays so lock them in first and then find a way to slide in the Robin to their Batman with Paul George and Julius Randle. It may seem odd to put Randle over Jrue as the secondary Pelicans piece but ever since Randle entered the starting line-up (and we already know Nikola Mirotic is out tonight), Randle has taken over as the clear second offensive option as a total usage hog in this offense. Over the last two weeks with Randle on the court (and Mirotic out), the Pelicans forward has a team leading 31% usage rate while putting up just under 1.4 FP/M.
If you lock those four stars in, you have $7.5K per player for the last four spots on your roster and that is the route I want to explore today in Picks and Pivots – how can we game stack this spot and find the value to make it all fit nicely.
One option – stay in this game.
Tim Frazier ($8K) is one of my favorite plays from this game and nobody ever plays the guy. In eight games since joining the starting rotation he is averaging 31 minutes a game and 27+ fantasy points which would exceed 3.4x value at this price point. Frazier has gone for 3x value (cash game target) in 5 of those 8 games including last time out against Boston where he was priced exactly the same as he is tonight ans was less than 1% owned in GPP.s This is a play I think you can make a cash game staple and he has GPP upside at this price point.
NBA DFS – Finding the Value to Make it Work:
With the construct in place that I want to stack Russ/PG13 with AD/Randle it means living in value town for the second half of my FantasyDraft roster and that is exactly where I intend to go and help you make this build work in a way we feel good about.
The nice thing about a slate this size, we should have ample value to make Stars/Scrubs feasible and even writing this at 5AM EST, we have a ton of spots already identified with more likely to materialize throughout the day.
Dennis Smith Jr. has already been ruled out for tonight’s game with Atlanta which means Jalen Brunson ($7.2K) will draw is fourth straight start for the Mavericks. Brunson has been fantastic in his last three starts, averaging 27 FPTS per game which would exceed 3.7x value at this price point and now gets the best match-up yet against the Hawks.
This game has the second highest projected pace and the Mavericks see the biggest pace boost on the slate and add in the fact that Brunson will go up against Trae Young who not only is the single worst defender of all NBA PG’s, but he ranks dead last among 449 NBA players in DRPM this season. Brunson is an elite value no matter the roster build tonight but becomes one of the first plays in for me if I want to stack up some Thunder/Pelicans.
Stay in this game for a second and just pivot over to another cheap Dallas option in Wesley Matthews ($8.4K) who has put up 11 FGA per game in the last three outings that DSJ has missed and becomes another Dallas starter locked into 30+ minutes a night in an elite pace up spot. When these teams met back on October 24th, Matthews played 34 minutes and put up 32 fantasy points and the fact we can get him at this price point for a Dallas team with the second highest projected team total, make him a great value target.
With Mike Conley officially questionable for tonight’s game with Portland, we could see Shelvin Mack ($7.1K) step into the starting rotation for Memphis and be asked to shoulder a major load at a cheap price point. Conley has yet to miss a game this season but with Mack being Conley’s direct back-up, we can feel comfortable with the assumption that he would draw the start here tonight.
One of the biggest injury pieces we need to wait on is Jimmy Butler who is doubtful to play against Brooklyn, which has massive implications on this slate. Not only does it make Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons even better plays but it props up the value of the remaining Sixers.
When Butler left last game against the Pistons, it was Landry Shamet ($6K) who drew the start in the second half but it gave guys like T.J. McConnell ($6.9K) and Furkan Korkmaz ($6.7K) paths to 25+ minutes and each went for 30+ fantasy points for under $7K. I would not go crazy over-loading Sixers value but keep all three of these plays in your player pool and use them as last men in kind of plays if you need a punt.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
This sample lineup is not meant to be a plug and play build – it is meant to be an illustrative example based off the logic laid out in Picks and Pivots.
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G: Tim Frazier
F/C: Anthony Davis
F/C: Julius Randle
F/C: Paul George
UTIL: Jalen Brunson
UTIL: Wesley Matthews
Slate Overview: When I first opened this slate, my goal was to find a way to build around a Thunder/Pelicans stack – to see if that kind of roster build was even viable. It is not hard to click in names like Westbrook, George, AD and Randle – the hard part is finding the value to make it work. Or is it?
This slate looks loaded already with value and this was only a first pass look. The Mavericks back-court is a no-brainer spot for me with two guards locked into 30+ minutes in an elite pace up spot and you can mix and match numerous other value guards like Mack or the Sixers bench trio assuming Butler is ruled out.
My recommendation today is to build your core and keep a running player pool list as you go – mixing and matching the value pieces you want to utilize as news breaks. This is shaping up to be an ideal Stars and Scrubs slate and my guess is we see some massive GPP winning scores as a result. Good luck all!
Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings each and every day!