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Fantasy Football: Why you shouldn’t draft DK Metcalf over Tyler Lockett

By Ben Grivas

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN - JANUARY 12: Tyler Lockett #16 of the Seattle Seahawks celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the third quarter against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Lambeau Field on January 12, 2020 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN - JANUARY 12: Tyler Lockett #16 of the Seattle Seahawks celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the third quarter against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Lambeau Field on January 12, 2020 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /
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The Legend

The Seahawks will simply throw the ball more, making both Lockett and Metcalf top-15 WRs.

There’s a Seahawks legend that I’ve heard for years now: if only Pete Carroll would unleash Russell Wilson into a full-fledged passing offense, Wilson would finish the year as the MVP and the Seahawks would be a true Super Bowl contender. This has been what many fans have wanted for the past few years, and even Russell Wilson himself has said that he wants to throw the ball more.

How likely is it? Well, Pete Carroll is a stubborn guy, so not that likely. Take a look at the pass-rush ratios each year of Russell Wilson’s tenure as the starting QB:

passrushseahawks
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The Seahawks have been consistently a run-heavy offense the entire time, except in 2016 and 2017, two injury-riddled years that saw their defense weaken and resulted in their worst records (9-7 and 10-5-1) throughout this 8-year stretch. After those season-long failures, Carroll went right back to running the ball, and the Seahawks have marginally improved since. With the Jamal Adams trade sure to improve the defense, it’s hard imagining Carroll would change his proven formula of a strong run game and defense.

Without throwing the ball more, can the Seahawks support two top-15 WRs? The short answer is no. The longer answer is no, but supporting two WR2s would technically be possible. Here are the fantasy stats of the top two receivers in Seattle since 2012:

wrs
wrs /

The best season from a fantasy perspective for two Seahawks receivers combined was in 2015, when Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham combined for 27.8 fantasy points per game. Split evenly, this would create two receivers with 13.9 PPG, equal to the WR26 last year in PPG. This means that the Seahawks have never supplied the volume to support two WR2s before.

With Metcalf and Lockett being such a deadly combo and Russell Wilson’s desire for more passes, I’m not going to say that they both won’t finish as WR2s. However, i just can’t rank them that way. Lockett has played like a high-end WR2 the past two years and should be expected to remain a WR2. This means there isn’t enough volume for Metcalf to be higher than a fringe WR2.

TL;DR: Metcalf’s upside in this offense is overrated and Tyler Lockett’s proven production is underrated.

Want more fantasy advice?

Check these articles out:

More Player Analysis: Odell Beckham Jr., Calvin Ridley, Brandin Cooks/Will Fuller, Engram/Henry/Higbee

QB Rankings (with projections): 1-20

RB Rankings (with projections): 1-20, 21-40

WR Rankings (with projections): 1-25, 26-50.

Draft Strategy (based on trends): Quarterbacks, Tight Ends

Also, follow my new Twitter @BenGrivas for notifications whenever I post a new article. Tweet at me with questions. Thanks for reading!

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