College Football Playoff picture after Florida upset by LSU: Ohio State a lock? Texas A&M, Big 12 get new life

One weekend is all that remains from the College Football Playoff field being set.

We will know what four teams will make the College Football Playoff in a little over a week.

While most of the teams we expected to be there in the end still will be, we can officially cross off the Florida Gators from College Football Playoff consideration. Thanks to Marco Wilson throwing one shoe 20 yards on a third-down stop, the unsportsmanlike penalty kept the LSU Tigers’ drive alive. They would go on to stun the Gators 37-34 in The Swamp on a made Cade York field goal.

College Football Playoff teams after Week 15

The Alabama Crimson Tide became the second team to unofficially clinch their spot into the College Football Playoff. Alabama went out and destroyed the Arkansas Razorbacks to the tune of 52-3. The Crimson Tide will have two Heisman Trophy finalists in quarterback Mac Jones and wide receiver Devonta Smith. Maybe one of them becomes the third winner in school history in 2020?

Alabama can lose to the Florida Gators in the SEC Championship game and will still make the four-team field. The Crimson Tide has more than earned the benefit of the doubt. They just completed a 10-game, conference-only slate in the SEC and did not lose a game. That is unprecedented and that is why Nick Saban’s team is the overwhelming favorite to win the national title this year.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish did not play a game this weekend, but that did not matter for the Golden Domers’ chances to make the playoff field. As with Alabama, Notre Dame has unofficially earned a spot in the four-team field. The Irish are 10-0 on the season and 9-0 in ACC play. Regardless of what happens in the ACC Championship game, they will be getting in this season.

Notre Dame could be as high as the No. 1 seed if the Irish beat the Clemson Tigers in Charlotte next week, or as low as No. 4 if they lose to Dabo Swinney‘s team in the title bout rematch. They are going to play in either the Rose Bowl or the Sugar Bowl, as the only thing the Irish are playing for is a rare ACC Championship and more importantly to the program, playoff seeding.

As with Notre Dame, Clemson had the Week 15 game taken off the schedule as a means to give the ACC the best conference championship game possible. We know that Notre Dame is making the playoff no matter the result at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. What we do not know is if Clemson will make the playoff field for the sixth consecutive season. How do the Tigers get in?

For Clemson to keep its playoff streak alive, the Tigers have to beat the Irish in their upcoming neutral-site affair. If Clemson loses to Notre Dame for the second time this season, they will miss the playoff for the first time since 2014. They will have to settle for a New Year’s Six bowl and face whoever the Selection Committee decides will be their opponent in the Orange Bowl.

Even though they did not meet the Big Ten’s previous requirement of having to play six regular-season games to be eligible for the Big Ten Championship game, guess who is going to the Big Ten Championship Game with a perfect 5-0 record now? The Ohio State Buckeyes are the apple of the Selection Committee’s eye, but they must win in Indianapolis to procure a playoff bid.

The Big Ten athletic directors waived the six-game requirement rule to allow Ryan Day’s team to play Pat Fitzgerald‘s Northwestern Wildcats in the conference title bout. Since Ohio State is the only undefeated team left in the Big Ten, they can sneak into the playoff with a 6-0 record and wins over Northwestern and the Indiana Hoosiers, but that is it. That is their only pathway in.

First two teams out

The Texas A&M Aggies had their game vs. the Ole Miss Rebels “postponed”, but we all know that game is not being made up anymore. Texas A&M can get to 8-1 on the season if the Aggies beat the Tennessee Volunteers next weekend. While a ninth win would have helped their College Football Playoff argument more, the Aggies still have an outside shot of making the field in 2020.

For Texas A&M to get in, the Aggies would need Alabama to win the SEC, Notre Dame to win the ACC and Ohio State to win the Big Ten. There are other ways for the Aggies to get in assuming a win over Tennessee next week, but that is the easiest and most logical pathway to explain at this time. The Aggies are certainly New Year’s Six bound, but the playoff might be just out of reach.

The biggest beneficiary of the dumbest play in Florida football history is the two-loss Iowa State Cyclones. The Selection Committee is very fond of this team, as they moved Matt Campbell’s team up twice in the last two rankings. Iowa State was the No. 7 team in the land after last week’s rankings. They will absolutely be the second team out on Tuesday evening.

This leaves a narrow pathway for a two-loss Big 12 champion to get into the playoff, whether that is Iowa State or the Oklahoma Sooners. If Iowa State were to defeat the Sooners for a second time this season, they would need some help to make the four-team field, but the stunning home loss for Florida at least has the Cyclones in the conversation heading into the final weekend of play.

So how many teams are still alive to make the playoff at this time? Possibly as many as seven. Those would be Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson, Ohio State and Texas A&M for sure, as well as potentially Iowa State and maybe even Oklahoma, depending on what happens in conjunction with the Big 12 Championship game result. All we know is Florida is officially eliminated from it.

Who is getting that most coveted No. 4 seed in the upcoming College Football Playoff?

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