Breaking down the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am expert picks for this week on the PGA Tour with a look at who finishes top 10, best bets and a winner prediction.
The West Coast swing early in the calendar year on the PGA Tour always takes us to some iconic golf courses and that’s the case this week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Unfortunately, this event is much like The American Express in that it becomes extremely difficult to make our PGA Tour expert picks because it is played over three courses with the Pro-Am element, meaning a 54-hole cut and two courses we don’t have advanced metrics for.
Over the course of Thursday-Saturday, each player will tee it up at Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterrey Peninsula before finishing on Sunday at Pebble Beach. That’s the course we have strokes gained data on and we’ll look at that. But at the same time, we also just have to rely on who has good history at this event because it is played the same every year.
Last week at the Farmers Insurance Open, our PGA Tour expert picks had some ups and downs. Ryan Palmer for the One-and-Done got us $132,300, which isn’t all that bad, but our top 10 pick (Sam Burns) missed the cut while Xander Schauffele was nowhere near the top of the leaderboard as our pick to win.
Yet, we hit two of our four best bets with Jon Rahm cashing at +175 with a top 5 finish and, most importantly, our longshot bet to win, Luke List, coming out on top at +6600. So let’s try and keep that same energy as we dive into our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am expert picks and best bets.
PGA Tour expert picks for AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Winner, Top 10, One and Done
One and Done pick for AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Daniel Berger
Last year’s winner at this tournament, Berger has thrived at this event throughout his career. And for a One-and-Done pick, I’ll let Iain MacMillan at BetSided make the case for me why he’s a high-end selection this week:
"Daniel Berger is the defending champion of the event, and he finish 5th here the year before in 2020. Even back in 2015, Berger finished 10th in the field.He’s already fourth on Tour in strokes gained: approach the green this season, and with a T20 finish at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open, he seems primed to make a run at going back-to-back at this event."
Seems pretty cut and dry to me as to why Berger, who might not make sense above some other top names at other venues, would be a great OAD pick this week.
Top 10 pick for AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Justin Rose (+275)
First off, you have to love these odds for Justin Rose as a top-10 finisher this week. His bogey on the 18th-hole trying to get into the playoff overshadowed the fact that the veteran was in the mix throughout Sunday at the Farmers. But what’s more impressive is that he recaptured his ball-striking, finishing eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in last week’s field, one much stronger than the one at Pebble. He’s not a bad sprinkle to win, either, but I love getting +300 for a top 10 here.
Pick to Win at AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Patrick Cantlay (+750)
Yes, Cantlay is the favorite to win and it might be a square pick, but I’ve got to lean on what he’s been showing us both overall and at this tournament. Last year, he finished T-3 at this event despite not putting as well as he’s proven to be capable of in the year since. He was also T-11 the year prior at this event. On top of that, he hasn’t been outside of the top 10 in his last four starts. I’m riding this and getting the +750 before that value depletes further when he comes out firing.
PGA Tour best bets for AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Note: These best bets were compiled before matchups were released on WynnBet.
Maverick McNealy to Top 10 (+275)
In addition to liking Rose as a top 10 finisher, the same odds on Maverick McNealy in the same spot are equally as enticing. He finished second in this event last year behind Berger and has been playing solidly as of late with five straight top-30 showings. While that’s not top 10, the good vibes for him at this tournament should serve him well and I like him to pop up again this week and make some noise.
Will Zalatoris to finish Top 5 (+450) – UPDATE: Zalatoris out after positive COVID-19 test
Honestly, I might be sprinkling Will Zalatoris outrights until he finally breaks through because the guy is so close to hoisting a trophy. He’s hitting the daylights out of the ball from tee-to-green and it’s the putter betraying him — but even that isn’t keeping him from contending. While putting is important for this event, I’m still going to fall back on the ball-striking and take these juicy odds for Zalatoris to do, at minimum, what he has the last two weeks.
Mito Pereira to finish Top 20 (+225)
Pereira has no tournament history at this event and missed the cut at the U.S. Open hosted at Pebble Beach three years ago. He’s evolved since then, however, and has become one of the better iron players on tour as of late. Pereira is actually one of BetSided’s Iain MacMillan’s picks to win this week.
"He’s a fantastic iron player, ranking seventh in strokes gained: approach the green heading into this week, and he’s a decent putter, ranking 71st.He was a popular name amongst golf bettors early in the season, and I named him as one of the golfers I expect to have a break out year, but after a few quiet performances, he’s now presenting some betting value. I’ll take a shot at him at 50/1 after a solid T25 last week."
I love a sprinkle at +5000 odds as well, but getting this type of value for a top 20 finish is equally as enticing and, frankly, has 19 more spots he could land in to get me to the cash counter.
Longshot pick to win: Brandon Harkins (+12500)
We’re going deep for our longshot pick to win this week but it’s hard not to love this number on Brandon Harkins given how things shape up for him. Not only did Harkins win last week on the Korn Ferry Tour, but he finished T-15 playing this event back in 2017 and shot a 28 on the back-nine at Pebble Beach last year in the non-tour Taylormade Pebble Beach Invitational. At these odds, how can you not at least sprinkle a little bit on Harkins?