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US Open cut line prediction 2023: Can Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa make LACC cut?

By Cody Williams

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 15: Justin Thomas of the United States and his caddie Jim "Bones" Mackay on the 12th tee during the first round of the 123rd U.S. Open Championship at The Los Angeles Country Club on June 15, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 15: Justin Thomas of the United States and his caddie Jim "Bones" Mackay on the 12th tee during the first round of the 123rd U.S. Open Championship at The Los Angeles Country Club on June 15, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images) /
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Looking at the 2023 US Open cut line prediction and projection to see where the number will end up and if Justin Thomas ans more will make the weekend.

Golf fans were promised a grueling test at Los Angeles Country Club for the 2023 US Open. For Rickie Fowler and Xander Schauffele in the first round, though, it wasn’t that at all. Fowler got off to a blistering start to the championship with a US Open-record 62 in the first round, tying the record for the lowest round in major history as well. Not 30 minutes later, though, Schauffele matched his effort with a 62 of his own.

But while they were cruising to the top of the leaderboard, the rest of the field was at least five strokes behind Fowler and Schauffele, which is more what fans expected coming into the US Open. And frankly, there were also several big names who struggled with the test at hand.

Justin Thomas and Tommy Fleetwood, two conceivable fits for LACC, started off with 3-over rounds on Thursday. Meanwhile, Collin Morikawa had to claw to finish at just 1-over for his round. And then there is one of the sleepers to win, Tyrrell Hatton, who had a disastrous time as he shot 4-over in his opening 18 holes.

With the first round at LACC starting to wrap up, that had golf fans starting to wonder about the 2023 US Open cut line and what number some of these players would have to clear in order to get to play the weekend. So let’s take a look at the current US Open cut line projection for Los Angeles Country Club to see where that number could end up based on what we’ve seen.

Projected 2023 US Open cut line at Los Angeles Country Club

Update, 3:50 p.m. ET – After there was a split between +1, +2 and +3 being the cut in Los Angeles late on Thursday in the first round, the latest US Open cut line projection has the number almost definitely ending up at +2.

Data Golf is predicting that there is a 72% chance that the cut line will be at 2-over par for the tournament as the first wave on Friday is concluding their rounds with the afternoon wave beginning to tee off. That’s bad news for the likes of Phil Mickelson, who shot a 74 in the second round to sit at +3. It also means that guys like Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas and Tyrrell Hatton need to bounce back if they want to see the weekend.

There is a 24.9% chance that the cut line will end up at +1 and a 2.5% chance of it moving to +3, also per Data Golf, but the latest projections clearly have us trending toward 2-over being the number that players are looking to stay clear of.

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