Open Championship cut line prediction 2023: Collin Morikawa, Gooch sweating

Looking at the 2023 Open Championship cut line prediction and projection to see where the number will end up and if DJ, Bryson and more make the weekend.

The Open Championship cut line the past few years has ultimately required players to score well. With Collin Morikawa winning in 2021 at -15 and Cam Smith hoisting the Claret Jug at -20 last year, the cut lines have ended up at +1 and Even, respectively. But with the setup and the conditions for Royal Liverpool Golf Club for The Open in 2023, that was always going to be the case.

So while Tommy Fleetwood, Emiliano Grillo and amateur Christo Lamprecht all set the pace in the first round on Thursday with 5-under rounds, they were the outliers. The course played demanding, and that was even before the wind really started to show up and take hold at Hoylake.

But with the scores that we were seeing in the first round and with some big names not putting up low numbers, fans were wondering about the predicted Open Championship cut line and what the number would be to play the weekend at Royal Liverpool.

Projected 2023 Open Championship cut line at Royal Liverpool Golf Club

Update – Friday, 4:15 p.m. ET: The cut line for The Open Championship will settle at +3. That will leave Collin Morikawa, Tom Hoge, Sahith Theegala, Joaquin Niemann, Tony Finau, Shane Lowry, Si Woo Kim, Phil Mickelson and more will miss the cut at Hoylake.

Update – Friday, 10:25 a.m. ET: With Hoylake showing its teeth on Friday in the second round, the Open Championship cut line projection has moved. Datagolf now has the cut at a 71.8% chance of ending up at +4 to make the weekend. Meanwhile, the highest percentage for the cut is sitting at +3, which Datagolf has with a 24.0% chance. It’s an outside shot of it reaching +5, with the model giving that just a 3.9% chance.

This is all great news for the likes of Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton, and others who ended up the second round at +2. Collin Morikawa will have to be doing a bit of wishing and hoping, though, after ending the first two rounds at a paltry +5. Talor Gooch, who has been hot on LIV Golf, will also need to rebound after going 2-over through his first four holes of the second round to push him down to +5.

Original Project: Late in the first round at about 3:15 p.m. ET the projected Open Championship cut line at Hoylake is at +3.

Datagolf projections have it as a 34.4% chance of the cut number ending up at 3-over par for the tournament. However, the number could also very likely end up at +4 on Friday afternoon as the projections also give it a 33.4% chance of ending up at that number. There is also a much smaller chance, which seems unlikely with some wind and light rain coming on Saturday, of +2 being the cut line with the projections giving that a 14.5% chance.

The +3 number does put some big names in jeopardy. That’s where Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Phil Mickelson, Tom Kim and Robert Macintyre all ended up, along with several others. That means they’ll have real work to do to solidify their place in the weekend. Meanwhile, other names like Justin Thomas (+11), Ryan Fox (+7) and several others have quite a lot of work to do to see the weekend at The Open.

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