Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Five college football teams face uphill battles to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, with schedule and roster hurdles threatening their seasons.
- USC and four other teams face tough matchups, quarterback uncertainties, and coaching transitions that cloud their paths.
- Every game carries massive weight, meaning early losses can crush championship hopes and completely reshape the national postseason race.
For now, the College Football Playoff is set at 12 teams. As long as there are 12 teams in the playoff, the controversy around which 12 deserve to be in will be at the forefront. Yes, it’s still the spring, but that doesn’t mean we can’t play the process of elimination already. These five teams are already on the outside and will be in an uphill battle to get into one of the coveted seeds in the CFP.
USC Trojans
This is a team with higher expectations than probably any team in college football. Not because the Trojans are supposed to dominate the Big Ten, but because the pressure Lincoln Riley has to lead USC to the College Football Playoff this year is boiling over. Riley was hired to resurrect USC football. Save for his first season with Caleb Williams, the Trojans have been a mid-tier team in the Big Ten since they arrived. This year probably won’t be any different, unfortunately.
The Trojans have to play Oregon, Ohio State and play at Penn State and at Indiana. Anything more than one loss in that stretch and they’re probably not getting into the CFP if it stands at 12 teams. I don’t have belief in USC to sweep those games, let alone come away with fewer than two losses. That said, Riley and USC have one of the best quarterbacks in the country and have put together a roster good enough to compete for a championship. USC should be a playoff team, but every year it seems like they fall short. Looking at their 2026 schedule, there’s less optimism about their playoff aspirations.
Michigan Wolverines
The Big Ten is going to be a gauntlet this season, which means some good teams could get left out. Of the heavyweights in that conference, Michigan is one of the odd teams out, unfortunately. The Wolverines have to play Indiana, Oregon and obviously Ohio State this year and that’s just in the conference. They also have a non-conference game against Oklahoma in Week 2. Michigan replaced Sherrone Moore with Kyle Whittingham. As good as Whittingham was at Utah, I don’t know if he’s going to have immediate success at Michigan.
The Wolverines needed to truly improve this offense. It just doesn’t feel like they’re at that level where they’re dangerous. Michigan is always going to run the ball well, but they turned to five-star quarterback Bryce Underwood last year, and the lack of weapons was glaring. The Wolverines did add Texas transfer Jaime Ffrench Jr., but they need more than just one receiver to improve this offense.
If Michigan can put together an offense that highlights Underwood’s strengths as a passer, the Wolverines will be just fine. Ahead of the 2026 season, I just don’t feel optimistic about their revamped offensive philosophy.
Oklahoma Sooners
The Sooners snuck into the College Football Playoff last year with an at-large bid. It feels like this year will be tougher for them to crack into college football’s elite 12 teams again. Not that I think Oklahoma regressed by any means, but the Sooners have to play road games against Georgia and Michigan and then a home clash against Ole Miss with a neutral site game against rival Texas. As much as I want to believe that Oklahoma is good enough to survive their schedule, they might get the same treatment Texas did last year.
I could see Oklahoma being a three-loss team, and it’s going to be controversial whether they get in or not. Florida and Texas A&M won’t be easy games either. John Mateer will have the chance to make up for last year after a hand injury hampered him in the middle of the season. The Sooners lost to Alabama in the first round of the CFP, blowing a 17-point lead. It will be close, but I think Oklahoma’s schedule keeps them out of the CFP in 2026.
Clemson Tigers
The 2026 season should be the season the Clemson Tigers football program is resurrected, right? Eh, not so fast, my friend. The Tigers will probably compete in the ACC this year, but it’s hard to see them get in with an at-large bid. I certainly don’t see them being good enough to beat Miami in the ACC title game. Did I just accidentally leak the script? The ACC won’t have the chaos it did last season.
There’s not going to be any drama involving four and five-loss teams winning the conference and daring the CFP selection to do the unthinkable. Clemson had a better team last year than what they have right now, and if they couldn’t figure it out in 2025, there’s no way they’re going to be better in 2026. Christopher Vizzina is a question mark, which isn’t ideal. If the Tigers’ offense looks better this year than it did last year, then maybe they have a shot, but it just feels like the Tigers are still behind the pack.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Of course Texas Tech had to be on this list. The quarterback that secured a rumored $5 million NIL contract will (probably) never take a snap in Lubbock or in college football again. When you whiff that bad on a quarterback, it dampens your season instantly. Now Texas Tech probably wasn’t aware of Brendan Sorsby’s gambling addiction, which came to light this spring. Had they known, they probably would have been more aggressive going after Sam Leavitt. Regardless, the fact that they don’t have the quarterback they wanted means their season might be in shambles.
If they believed in Will Hammond, who’s coming off an ACL injury, they wouldn’t have gone after Sorsby in the transfer portal. The fact that they didn’t like the options already on the roster makes it clear they needed an upgrade. Now that they have no choice but to turn to what’s already on their roster, I doubt they make it to the CFP this year. Even if they do, they’re destined for an embarrassing first-round loss, which happened thanks to miserable quarterback play last year.
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