When it comes to earning resume-building wins in November, the margin of error is already paper-thin. For these six teams, it's even thinner.
A loss in Week 10 could derail their path to the College Football Playoff. Maybe not mathematically, but losing will make it a lot tougher to stay in the good graces of the CFP selection committee. These teams can least afford a loss this weekend if they want to still have a shot at the CFP, making this a pivotal week.
No. 12 Ohio State Buckeyes
Week 10 opponent: No. 23 Oregon Ducks
Ohio State needs redemption in a bad way. Not just because the Buckeyes need to bounce back after a lackluster performance in Los Angeles, but if they want to reach a third straight CFP, they’ll need a win to keep those hopes alive. A few weeks ago, it would have felt like a guaranteed win after Oregon started to plummet amid quarterback problems. Now it's Ohio State's turn, with Julian Sayin out and Luke Fahey still getting acclimated to being a starting quarterback in the Big Ten. Buckeye fans, particularly the infamous Fringe, are less optimistic.
No. 13 Tennessee Volunteers
Week 10 opponent: No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats
Tennessee is clinging onto that win over Alabama a few weeks ago. The CFP selection committee ranked them just outside the field, setting up a prove-it week for them. Kentucky is their next opponent and without that win, the Vols will probably miss another CFP after making the inaugural 12-team playoff in 2024. The LSU game could be a resume booster, but that could come down to how LSU’s season shapes up. At this point, the Vols need to treat Saturday as a win and you’re (possibly) in, but lose and you’re headed to bowl season.
No. 15 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Week 10 opponent: West Virginia Mountaineers
Texas Tech already had one of the easiest schedules among Power Four CFP contenders, and now its season is hanging by a thread on the CFP bubble after a stunning loss to Cincinnati. After that loss, nothing is certain — both in the Big 12 and with the Red Raiders. They have West Virginia this week and the Mountaineers would love nothing more than to play spoiler. Texas Tech is already outside the CFP field. Another loss might just jettison them out of the CFP rankings altogether.
No. 17 Houston Cougars
Week 10 opponent: Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati already has one Top 25 win – a top 10 one, to be exact — so could they pull off another? If so, it might put Houston's hopes in just as much peril as Texas Tech's. The Cougars have had a solid season, but have cracked the top 15 of the AP Top 25 just once, in Week 8. That means the committee, which put them at No. 17, isn’t convinced they’re one of the top contenders. A loss this week would prove them right.
No. 20 USC Trojans
Week 10 opponent: No. 4 Indiana Hoosiers
The CFP selection committee set USC up for the perfect path to the CFP. It’s simple, they win out, they make the playoff. Even earning back-to-back top 5 wins — after beating Ohio State last week — might put them close to the top 12. That said, if they lose this game, they won’t have a shot at becoming the first three-loss CFP team. This is one of two top-10 teams left on their schedule (No. 8 UCLA in the finale). Because they're ranked 20th, they’ll still need to make a strong statement to the selection committee. A loss gives them reason to keep them out for yet another year.
No. 25 Boise State Broncos
Week 10 opponent: Colorado State Rams
Boise State can make history this year being the first Group of Six team to make multiple College Football Playoff appearances. That can be snatched from them just as quickly with a loss. The Broncos got away with a seven-point loss to Oregon, but they won’t get away with a loss to struggling Colorado State. This is relevant because, while the Broncos have managed to win every game since Week 1, they’ve had a couple of close calls — including a shootout against Texas State last week. One slip up, and they’ll open the door for New Mexico or another G6 team to steal their CFP bid.Â
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