It’s never too early to start talking about college football coaches on the hot seat even if it’s too early to start firing them. Administrations and more so fan bases are impatient and if you aren’t producing immediate results, your job gets called into question. That’s why the five coaches on this list can’t afford a Week 1 loss. And the one coach that suffered a loss already in Week 1 is a prime example of why this is a results-driven business.
Before the season started, Greg Schiano wasn’t necessarily on the hot seat, but he wasn’t exactly comfortable either. After the embarrassing loss to UMass on Thursday night, it’s clear it’s time to move on. This isn’t the same as his first stint with Rutgers. Between the 2001 and 2011 seasons, those were some of the best in Rutgers football, highlighted by the 2006 season. Since Schiano’s return in 2020, it’s been debilitating. The loss to UMass shows just how far the Scarlet Knights’ program has fallen.
Schiano isn’t completely to blame for that, but it’s clear he’s no longer the coach the school needs. He’s one of the older coaches in college football and maybe he’s outlived his time on the sidelines. Either way, Rutgers fans can’t think back to what it was when it’s miserable now. Schiano probably won’t survive the season after Thursday’s loss.
Mike Norvell, Florida State Seminoles
Mike Norvell will show up on any and every hot seat list imaginable until he’s fired — or by some stretch of the imagination gets hired away. Norvell is seemingly in the perfect situation in terms of coaches on the chopping block. His $50-plus million buyout is tying him to Florida State longer than the organization probably wants. He survived an embarrassing loss to New Mexico State last week. He just might not survive a loss to SMU.Â
The Seminoles and Mustangs play on Monday night in a national showcase. The spread in favor of SMU is just -3. That's essentially a pick-em game. The Mustangs bring back quarterback Kevin Jennings and receiver Jalen Cooper. Yes, SMU is ranked No. 19, but these are the games Norvell was hired to win.
Frankly, SMU Rhett Lashlee has produced winning at a significantly higher rate than Norvell. The last time the two head coaches faced off, Lashlee's team blasted Norvell's 42-16. Last year, he took down Miami, 26-20.
It’s been miserable the last few years and if he doesn’t get on track this year, he might not ever get back on track. That’s why he’ll forever be on the chopping block if he loses the first ACC game of the season.Â
Dabo Swinney, Clemson Tigers
Clemson hasn’t put the red alert out on Dabo Swinney, but if he struggles against in 2026 like he did in 2025, the administration just might feel a change is needed. Swinney has recently adapted to the modern way of recruiting and utilizing the transfer portal. He might not make it past this season if things don’t turn around. Clemson has long run the ACC and now the power has shifted. Miami is the top dog in the ACC and if Swinney continues to allow the rest of the conference to pass them, it will continue to be an indictment on him.Â
Swinney and his team have a tough match against LSU. While this game may not judge whether Clemson will be good or not in 2026, it will prove if they’re ready to compete with the top teams in college football.
LSU is favored by 10 points. If you can say one thing about Swinney, his teams don't get blown away by teams. Last year they lost to LSU by seven and didn't get beat by more than 13 all season. Yet there are those who believe Lane Kiffin and co. are going to wallop Clemson on Saturday.
So this one is less about a loss and more about the type of loss. If Clemson regresses to being a second-tier Power 4 team that can't even hang with an LSU, the school might feel the need to make a change.Â
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin isn’t expected to beat Notre Dame football by any means in Week 1. That said, they should at least put up a fight. Luke Fickell avoided getting fired last season, but he won’t be afforded that same fortune this year if things unravel quickly again. The university pledged to invest in the roster to allow Fickell more recruiting tools. Another down year and you could say it will be his last in Madison. When he left Cincinnati for Wisconsin, the goal was to turn them around like he did the Bearcats.Â
Since his arrival, it’s been mediocre football at best. Mediocrity doesn’t get you an extension and it usually gets you fired. Fickell has to prove to the Badger faithful this year won’t be like the year's past. That means having a competitive game against Notre Dame and showing that they can hang with the College Football Playoff contenders.Â
The Fighting Irish are favored by 20.5. Covering that spread would go a long way to giving Fickell some leash.
Lincoln Riley, USC Trojans
Now I don’t expect USC to choke against Fresno State, but it wouldn’t be the craziest thing to happen this weekend. Lincoln Riley is under immense pressure to get to the College Football Playoff this year and a loss to Fresno State puts that hope in jeopardy. Not just because with each loss, a new hurdle comes in convincing the College Football Playoff selection committee, but because he’ll completely lose the fan base by losing a game they have no business losing.Â
USC has one of the best rosters in college football. Riley has to win with this team or he might not ever be good enough to lead USC to the College Football Playoff. He was able to take Oklahoma there with Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray. He can get there as a coach. Getting there with USC shouldn’t be this difficult. His job security could very well be evaluated on getting to the CFP and losing to Fresno State is just about the worst-case scenario.
The Trojans still have to take on Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana. If they have any hopes of making the CFP, they can't afford to drop a single game in which they are a favorite. Indeed, they're favored over the Bulldogs by 21.5. Still, the USC defense still faces significant questions. Plus, Fresno State is helmed by former USC linebackers coach Matt Entz, who won a national title in FCS, led the Bulldogs to nine wins in his first season and spent a year going against Riley's offense in practice. This is a more intriguing matchup than it might look like on first glance.
It would be much better for Riley if we were once against talking about attendance, rather than a flop of a performance.
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