The first full week of college football, Week 1 they call it, is going to be a fascinating proposition. While Louisville vs. Ole Miss in Nashville is the only ranked-vs-ranked matchup of the week, we still have some big-name matchups. Chief among them, of course, is Clemson-LSU in the battle for Death Valley. But we're confident enough in Lane Kiffin's Tigers to say that LSU isn't on upset alert this week. We had to look elsewhere for our Week 1 upset predictions.
We've already gotten a historic upset with 29.5-point underdog UMass taking down Rutgers on Thursday. Heck, even another one with Colorado stunning Georgia Tech. But don't worry, there will be more to come. We found three matchups ripe for an upset this week in college football, starting out west late on Saturday night.
3. California Golden Bears will upset UCLA
- Time: Saturday, Sept. 5, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- Point Spread: UCLA -2.5
- Moneyline: Cal +106
I've checked with the Calgorithm — and it says UCLA is in trouble.
The Bruins actually have some juice coming into this season, despite some recent unrest in the athletic department. Whether at Holy Cross or James Madison, Bob Chesney has a huge track record of success. Furthermore, people are glossing over the fact that Nico Iamaleava was actually quite good throughout last season with UCLA. Now, they have a more solid roster that should push them comfortably into bowl contention.
At the same time, though, there's no world in which I'd call this Bruins team world-beaters, and they could be had on a given night. Tosh Lupoi's debut for Cal could bring about one of those nights. Not only do we get this game in Berkeley, but for as good as Iamaleava was, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele was even better last season. Now he has a stronger supporting cast around him and seemingly a new direction for the Golden Bears.
I wouldn't use this game as a referendum on either team, barring a blowout. This should be a tight affair, but with the game at home for Cal, the Golden Bears have the goods to edge out a big Week 1 victory that is, in fact, an upset.
2. Louisville Cardinals will upset Ole Miss
- Time: Sunday, Sept. 6, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
- Point Spread: Ole Miss -6.5
- Moneyline: Louisville +215
With all due respect for what Ole Miss was able to accomplish last year, as well as to Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy returning to the Rebels, this isn't last year. We don't know what a full season of Pete Golding as a head coach is going to look like. The roster doesn't have the same breadth of talent that it did when Lane Kiffin was at the helm, in no small part because of Kiffin bringing players with him to LSU.
Make no mistake, Ole Miss is still a high-quality football team — I'm just not quite sure that the defense and offensive line make them a Top 10 caliber team. That's true of Louisville as well, to be sure, but with Jeff Brohm at the helm of the Cardinals and a stout defensive front, it stands to reason that the birds with teeth will be able to put some points on the board.
Simply put, I think this one ends up being more back-and-forth than anything, but as much as I trust Chambliss individually, I trust Brohm's scheme and experience more if there's a team that needs to make a play in order to win this game. So the Rebels end up on upset alert as a result.
1. Marshall Thundering Herd will upset Penn State
- Time: Saturday, Sept. 5, 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1)
- Point Spread: Penn State -24.5
- Moneyline: Marshall +1400
Just anecdotally, there's always one head-scratching result in Week 1 that leaves everyone questioning their reality or preseason notions. Penn State welcoming Marshall to Happy Valley for Matt Campbell's first game at the helm of the Nittany Lions has all the trappings of that game.
In the long run, Campbell will be good for Penn State. He created a winning culture at Iowa State, which was historically incredibly difficult to do. However, he did bring a large portion of his Cyclones roster, including quarterback Rocco Becht, to Penn State with him. Mind you, this was an Iowa State team last year that had losses to Colorado and Cincinnati, even with an 8-4 record.
Penn State's defensive front, specifically, looks a bit less athletic and dangerous than years prior, which could allow Marshall dual-threat quarterback Carlos Del-Rio Wilson to have some success and make noise in this game. And while the Thundering Herd defense isn't going to pitch a shutout by any means, this Nittany Lions offense doesn't move me. It's a shot in the dark for an upset prediction, sure, but I firmly believe Marshall keeps this closer than anyone in Happy Valley is comfortable with — and that will put an upset in play.
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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