The Heisman Trophy betting odds have been out for many months now. My favorites are Texas quarterback Arch Manning, Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin and Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr. But that doesn't mean those players are the favorites.
These lines are made by the popularity of a bet. They are not representative of what teams give those players the best chance to win.
Let’s look at the top five players in the Heisman Trophy odds and what it would take for them to win the award. There will also be a sixth player listed to look out for that is currently ranked further down the list.
Heisman favorites
CJ Carr, Notre Dame +700
Carr has the history of Notre Dame and a talented team that has a chance to go undefeated in 2026.Â
Led by cornerback Leonard Moore, the defense has three secondary players projected to be top 40 selections in April's NFL Draft. They will be able to do their part in holding opponents down.
The toughest game for the Irish will be a revenge game against Miami. The Hurricanes must travel to South Bend in November. If Carr can perform in this marquee matchup and Notre Dame can beat the Hurricanes, Carr will have a good chance to ride the fact that he was the quarterback on an undefeated team straight to the Heisman Trophy. That's exactly the same way Fernando Mendoza did in 2025. Carr is favored for a reason. Although the odds are short, he is still not favored as high as many players are at the start of a season. Meaning there is still a bit of value.
Arch Manning, Texas +850
Arch Manning, Arch Manning, Arch Manning. Name recognition aside, Manning must prove himself worthy of such a lofty value.
Manning, who was the starter for the first time in 2025, began the season slow. Ohio State had a historically elite defense and the unit completely shut down the Longhorns.
These struggles continued for Texas all season, with the Longhorns having trouble against both Kentucky and Mississippi State. Not to mention a loss to Florida, which left Texas 9-3 to finish the season and missing the playoffs after being the preseason No. 1 team.
Texas brought in running back Hollywood Smothers from NC State and wide receiver Cam Coleman from Auburn to help Manning. If Steve Sarkisian can draw up plays that use the new additions to the best of their ability, Manning will be the recipient of the praise heaped on the Longhorns. This will be the way Manning can get to New York and have a chance to win the Heisman Trophy.Â
Manning has a far more challenging schedule than Carr's, so a bet on Carr is still marginally better value than Manning.
Darian Mensah, Miami +950
The path for Darian Mensah is the easiest to find.Â
Miami, despite making it to the title game in 2025 and having a run of good quarterbacks, has never won the ACC or even appeared in the conference title game.
The Hurricanes are the best team in a weak conference. If they can avoid any stumbles, like those seen in other seasons, their only loss could be to Notre Dame. With this game being in November, it will be a final chance for both Mensah and Carr to impress voters, and it may be a winner-take-all, depending on how the rest of the season goes for both teams.
Malachi Toney and Cooper Barkate at the wide receiver position and Mark Fletcher Jr. at running back will provide the weapons Mensah needs to compete. If he is the quarterback to finally get Miami over the threshold in the ACC, this will come with a Heisman Trophy.
Dante Moore, Oregon +1100
Like Mensah, the path for Dante Moore is simple.
Oregon already has their Big Ten title. So, getting to the game will not be enough to push Moore over the edge in this competition.Â
Unlike that team, which was led by Bo Nix, this team will be led by the passing game rather than an elite run game.
With weapons like Dakorien Moore, Evan Stewart and Jeremiah McClellan at wide receiver and tight end Jamari Johnson being widely considered the best tight end in the nation, Moore has an opportunity to be the first Oregon Heisman Trophy winner since Marcus Mariotta.Â
Like Carr, Oregon will provide an elite defense to balance the offense. It has been spoken of many times that Oregon was able to provide millions of dollars to retain their entire starting defensive line for another season. This continuity, along with the offense the Ducks will display will make Oregon an exciting team to watch.Â
Whereas Manning has name recognition on his side, Moore has the hype of Oregon on his. The Ducks are one of the most talked about teams in 2026 — both for their roster and to see if Dan Lanning can finally make it to the title game with all the money being spent. This will give Moore the exposure needed to win the Heisman Trophy. Especially from a player who is located on the left coast. Â
Julian Sayin, Ohio State +1300
This is the least favorite bet of the entire top five.
Julian Sayin is good. But he is not a top NFL prospect, and more importantly, he has another player on his own team who is a better player in Jeremiah Smith.
Smith, currently sixth in these odds at +1500 on FanDuel Sportsbook, will garner much of the credit usually reserved for the quarterback position if this offense hits. Ohio State has been known in recent seasons as a wide receiver factory. Fair or not, this has led to less respect given to Buckeyes at the quarterback position. It also does not help matters that once in the NFL, Buckeyes quarterbacks have not been reliable.
Sayin is entering his second season as the full-time starter. He will be a first-round draft selection in April, but a Heisman Trophy looks to be a bridge too far for him to achieve in 2026.
As expected, the top players listed for the Heisman Trophy are all quarterbacks. It has almost exclusively been a quarterback award at this point.Â
Heisman hopefuls
Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State +2500
The first non-quarterback on the list is Jeremiah Smith, who has current odds of +1500. He is the only player in the top 10 favorites who is not a quarterback. This is the main reason that smart money will go on who you think will have the best status on a top team at the quarterback position. Lamar Jackson winning with a Louisville team with only eight wins is rare. In 2026, the team around the player will need to be in the hunt for the playoffs.
This is why there is one other player, who has moved into the top 10 but still has value. If his team and coach can finally get back to their desired place in the sport, he is my favorite flyer bet.
Jayden Maiava, USC +2500
Lincoln Riley needs USC to make a playoff push to quell the calls for his dismissal. These calls have been growing in volume since his first season and his inability to move on from Alex Grinch as defensive coordinator before the unit was completely ruined.Â
It has taken a few years and a few defensive coordinators, but the Trojans finally feel like they have a team capable of making the playoffs out of the Big Ten.
USC has the top recruiting class in the country in 2026. This is due in large part to taking 35 signees out of high school. One of these signees, wide receiver Trent Mosely, has already paid dividends as he finished his first game with 118 yards and 1 touchdown on 7 receptions. This was not a garbage-time touchdown either, as the pass was thrown by Maiava as one of his 2 touchdowns on a day where he also threw for 283 yards against the Spartans of San Jose State. Mosley went on to catch four passes for 102 yards and two touchdowns in USC's victory over Fresno State on Friday night.
After leading the Big Ten in passing yards in 2025 with 3,711, Maiava, who finished the year with 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, will look to improve on these numbers in order to compete against a schedule in 2026 which includes consecutive games against Oregon, Washington and Penn State and also finds USC facing Ohio State and Indiana in consecutive games, with a bye in between the games.
Riley is said to be a quarterback whisperer. He must be to have Maiava be good enough to conquer this difficult schedule. But, if USC can get through this gauntlet and make the playoffs, Maiava at +2500 is a bargain for this award and deserves a play. Just in case.Â
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