The Texas Longhorns realistically should return to the College Football Playoff after missing out last year thanks to a couple of late-season hiccups. But in a way, the Longhorns are in a similar position now. After a midseason slump with consecutive losses to Oklahoma and Florida, the Longhorns are back in the top 10 and have a CFP bid within reach, SEC title game appearance or not. But a clash with LSU this week could derail all of that.Â
Somehow, three-loss LSU is still clinging to a spot in the College Football Playoff rankings, and a win over Texas would essentially give the Tigers enough of a boost to inch them toward being a bubble team. How high they climb is entirely up to the selection committee, but based off of Notre Dame’s rise after taking down Miami, it’s clear this game is essentially a CFP elimination game.Â
This game isn’t about "win and you’re in." It's about winning and getting the resume boost you need to convince the CFP selection committee. Remember how the Notre Dame-Miami debacle turned out last year? That’s what this game means for both of these teams.Â
Why a loss to LSU eliminates Texas from CFP contention
Texas has a solid resume, but losses to Florida and Oklahoma put the Longhorns in a bind. They can get in as a three-loss team, but can’t afford any losses to teams with a shot. LSU still has a shot. Texas needs this win because without it, they won’t have the head-to-head win over the Tigers. And based on how the committee values head-to-head matchups this year — an overcorrection of sorts from last season — the Longhorns shouldn’t want to toe that line. Here’s a peek at Texas’ resume:
KEY WINS | KEY LOSSES |
|---|---|
vs. Ohio State (W, 24-23) | vs. Oklahoma (L, 27-24) |
vs. Ole Miss (W, 34-27) | vs. Florida (L, 27-24) |
at Missouri (W, 34-20) | |
at Tennessee (W, 20-17) |
The win at Tennessee is doing a lot of work right now, after Ohio State fell by the wayside. I don’t think the Buckeyes will lose again, but if they do, that win will mean a lot less. That also means LSU’s late-season win over a top-10 Texas team looks better than Texas’ win over Ohio State. Now it would be comparable to the Tennessee win, but because they play each other, it wouldn’t trump the result of Texas-LSU.
Why Texas needs a win to solidify their CFP bid
The Longhorns can eliminate all of the guesswork by simply winning. Do I think a loss knocks them completely out of contention? No. But a loss hurts them a lot more if LSU ends the season 9-3 with wins over Texas and Tennessee. If Texas wins, LSU’s game against Tennessee means nothing. If LSU wins, it means the Tigers would have the head-to-head matchup, plus a win over a key common opponent.
Texas will almost certainly be excluded from the CFP with a loss to LSU if the Tigers wind up winning out. Why leave that to chance, especially when LSU is a beatable team? If Texas can’t beat LSU, why should they get in anyway?
Why LSU can play more than spoiler against Texas this week
Lane Kiffin left Ole Miss during a season in which he could have won a national championship for a team he felt he could (hypothetically) win one with. That’s mostly gone up in flames in Year One, but it can still be extinguished and salvaged. A win keeps their hopes alive. A win also means if they win out, they put pressure on the selection committee to include them as a three-loss team.
KEY WINS | KEY LOSSES | KEY REMAINING GAMES |
|---|---|---|
vs. Texas A&M (W, 35-6) | at Ole Miss (L, 32-24 | vs. No. 6 Texas |
vs. Mississippi State (W, 31-0) | at Kentucky (L, 35-34 OT) | at No. 9 Tennesee |
vs. Alabama (L, 31-13) |
At this point, it’s hard to make the argument that LSU deserves to get into the CFP. It’s going to be harder to argue against that if they win out and finish 9-3 with two top-10 wins. This week isn’t about just spoiling Texas’ season. It's about college football’s villain proving to everyone to not count him out. Kiffin’s season hasn’t gone nearly how he’d hoped, but it doesn’t mean it’s over just yet either.
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