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Notre Dame's College Football Playoff hopes face a defining test against No. 1 Miami

The Fighting Irish know the pressure in Week 10.
ByRichard Louis
Oct 31, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman takes notes during the second half against the Navy Midshipmen at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images
Oct 31, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman takes notes during the second half against the Navy Midshipmen at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish have the No. 1 Miami Hurricanes coming into town for a primetime duel in South Bend in one of the biggest matchups in the Week 10 college football slate. The Hurricanes will also be without superstar receiver Malachi Toney, who underwent surgery for a high-ankle sprain this week.

That works in Notre Dame's favor, as they need to secure a win to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. They are 7-1 on the year, yet their schedule so far has left a lot to be desired. The only other ranked opponent they've faced todate was then No. 8-ranked BYU in Week 7, which beat the Fighting Irish 28-24.

This game against Miami is the only ranked contest left on Notre Dame's regular season schedule, and if they want a chance at the College Football Playoffs, they need to handle business against the Canes.

Notre Dame's College Football Playoff chances are on the line vs. Miami

CJ Carr
Notre Dame v BYU | Bryan Byerly/ISI Photos/GettyImages

Up to this point, the Fighting Irish have only beaten one team with a winning record, and that's Wisconsin back in Week 1. With a win on Saturday night, they will be able to silence some of the doubters and almost certainly secure their Playoff spot at 11-1 with a marquee victory at their resume. But if not, they will be in the crosshairs just like last year.

In 2025, Notre Dame went 10-2 after losing to Miami and Texas A&M to begin the year. They went on a 10-game win streak to close the year, but that wasn't enough for the selection committee, which understandably didn't think the Irish had done enough to overcome their head-to-head loss to the Hurricanes.

That created an uproar in South Bend. Instead of leaving it to the committee again, though, Notre Dame needs to come out victorious against the top-ranked team in the nation. Not only would they get revenge from last year, but they would also get a much-needed win for their resume. Entering the season, this game was circled on the calendar, and now it's time to execute.

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Two keys to victory for Notre Dame

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 31 Notre Dame vs Navy
COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 31 Notre Dame vs Navy | Icon Sportswire/GettyImages

The Fighting Irish will need to find a way to make plays in space. Whether that's in the run or pass game, they need to achieve it. Miami heads into this game with a tackling problem: According to PFF, the Canes have a 50.3 tackling grade in 2026, ranked 132rd out of 138 teams.

Last week against North Carolina, the Canes missed a whopping 22 tackles. This issue matches what they did last year, as they had a 55.6 tackling grade in 2025 (again per PFF). When Notre Dame gets the ball to their playmakers, they need to find a way to create some explosives. Breaking tackles will allow the offense to get more production, which could lead to more scoring opportunities for a team that can sometimes struggle to generate big plays.

That would also keep Miami's offense off the field, and for a team that is second in the FBS in total offense (534.9 yards per game) to date, that's a plus. Not only does Notre Dame need to make Miami defenders miss, but they need to improve their red zone defense to come away with a win.

The Fighting Irish defense has been stifling in 2026, as they rank first in the FBS in total defense (236.2) and fifth in scoring defense (13.3). They have forced opposing teams into difficult spots, but they need to get better in the red zone: They're 104th in the nation in red zone defense, allowing teams to score 88.9 percent of the time when they get inside the 20-yard line.

While teams have only made it to the red zone 18 times versus Notre Dame, they have allowed the team to score 16 times. Red zone offense is a strength for the Canes, as they are tied for 16th in the FBS in red zone offense, scoring 92.9 percent of the time on 42 trips. And when they get in the red zone, they are scoring touchdowns, with 34 under their belt.

Although they'll be without Toney, they still have a collection of difference makers led by quarterback Darian Mensah. The Fighting Irish need to excel in these two areas, and if they do, they'll have a great shot at coming out with the win.

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