SEC win total predictions: Unders for Oklahoma and more could have coaches on the hot seat

The SEC enters the 2026 season with more to prove than usual. It's been a few years since the conference where It Just Means More™️ won a national title, while several prominent programs are either starting over with a new head coach (Auburn, Florida, LSU, okay fine technically Arkansas too) or potentially reaching a breaking point (Alabama, Oklahoma ... Tennessee?). Which teams will break through and emerge as national title contenders? Which might disappoint — and put their head coach on the hot seat as a result?

To help answer that question — and to also help certain gambling-inclined folks among us — we're breaking down every SEC team's over/under this season and predicting which side they'll land on. For some big brands, like Texas, Georgia and even Alabama, we've got good news. For others like Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas A&M, however ...

2026 SEC win totals

Alabama: Over 8.5

The Tide will be breaking in a new QB in former five-star Keelon Russell, but they also have just five road trips all year: at Kentucky, at Mississippi State, at Tennessee, at Vanderbilt and at LSU. Four of those five are exceedingly winnable; go 4-1 there, and you just need to take care of business at home against East Carolina, Florida State, South Carolina, Chattanooga and Auburn to hit this number. Even if you go 3-2, a home win over Texas A&M does the trick, and that's more than doable given how good this Bama defense could be.

Arkansas: Under 3.5

Outside of non-con dates with North Alabama and Tulsa, there's not a game on this schedule that I feel good about Arkansas winning in year one under Ryan Silverfield. Could they beat, say, South Carolina, Tennessee or Missouri at home, or Vanderbilt or Auburn on the road? Sure, I suppose. Do I think they'll pick up the two Ws they'll need out of those five? I do not, and the rest of the slate is pretty brutal.

Auburn: Under 6.5

I'm a fan of Byrum Brown and this offense, and I don't have a ton of confidence in the under here. But it's more about the schedule than anything. At Georgia, at Ole Miss, LSU and at Alabama feel like comfortable losses, which means the Tigers will need to win seven of eight against Baylor, Southern Miss, Florida, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Samford and at Tennessee. I just don't feel great about Alex Golesh's team not stubbing their toe somewhere along the way, likely against the Gators or Vols — though again, 7-5 would be no means surprise me here, and that's a fine year one on the Plains.

Florida: Over 7.5

Ole Miss, at Texas and Georgia are the only three games that feel like easy losses for a Florida team that should be much improved with Jon Sumrall in town and a solid base of talent upon which to build. Bank wins from FAU, Campbell, South Carolina, at Kentucky, Vanderbilt and at Florida State, and you just need to grab two of at Missouri, at Auburn and Oklahoma. It's going to be tight, and 8-4 feels like the ceiling, but I think Jadan Baugh and the Gators can get it done. I think they're a better team than Mizzou and Auburn this year, and Oklahoma is beatable in the Swamp.

Georgia: Over 9.5

Considering how awesome Kirby Smart's Dawgs are in Athens, and the fact that Georgia only has four true road games on the docket this season (at Arkansas, at Alabama, at South Carolina and at Ole Miss), this number feels simply too low. The only games I'd really think about picking this team to lose are the trips to Tuscaloosa and Oxford, but they can drop both and still cash the over.

Kentucky: Under 4.5

I'm high on the Will Stein hire for Kentucky, and I like what he did in his first offseason both on the recruiting trail and in the portal — this offense could be genuinely frisky. Alas, the schedule does the Cats no favors: Alabama, at Texas A&M, LSU, at Oklahoma, at Tennessee, Florida, at Missouri and Louisville all strike me as likely losses, and even if they spring an upset in one of those latter three, they'd still need to avoid stubbing their toe against game Vandy and South Carolina squads to reach five wins.

LSU: Over 8.5

I want to watch Lane Kiffin fall on his face as much as the next disinterested third party, and I understand the skepticism involved in a team built on the fly through the portal. But man, there's just too much talent here for me to think they don't make it to at least nine wins. Clemson (in Baton Rouge, breaking in a new QB), Louisiana Tech, McNeese, at Kentucky, Mississippi State, at Tennessee and at Arkansas are seven that I'm confidently putting in the bank. From there, win one of your big three home games — Texas A&M, Alabama and Texas — and you just need to avoid a pitfall at Auburn to hit the number here.

Mississippi State: Over 4.5

Admittedly, I don't feel great about this one. But Mississippi State could be very live dogs (pun very much intended) this year with dynamic dual-threat Kamario Taylor at QB, and if they can survive road games against either Minnesota or South Carolina, there are five wins to be found here. They'll beat ULM and Tennessee Tech, and they'll at least split home games against Missouri and Vanderbilt. That gets us to four, and I think Jeff Lebby's squad will put a real scare into one of Alabama, Oklahoma and Auburn in Starkville. Remember, this team nearly beat both Texas and Tennessee last season.

Missouri: 6.5 Under

Eli Drinkwitz has been remarkably consistent in Columbia, but unfortunately, I think this pass rush is suspect and I don't trust the new pairing of QB Austin Simmons (who lost his job to Trinidad Chambliss amid a sea of turnovers) and OC Chip Lindsey (last seen failing to develop Bryce Underwood at Michigan). Arkansas-Pine Bluff, at Kansas, Troy, at Arkansas and Kentucky gets us to five pretty easily. But finding two more wins at Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Georgia or at home against Florida, Texas A&M, Texas and Oklahoma will be very tricky.

Oklahoma: Under 7.5

This might be my spiciest prediction, but I'm sticking by it. I just don't trust Oklahoma to repeat the formula that got them to the Playoff last season, one reliant on a ton of close-game magic and some serious turnover luck from a dominant defense. That defense lost a lot of talent to the NFL Draft, and while Brent Venables reloads as well as anybody, this is a tough schedule to find wins against. Road trips to Michigan and Georgia, plus the Red River game against Texas, feel like losses. Can the Sooners avoid tripping up twice among at Mississippi State, South Carolina, at Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M at Missouri? I'm skeptical.

Ole Miss: Over 8.5

Ole Miss plays just four true road games: at Florida, at Vandy, at Texas and at Oklahoma. Sure, the home slate includes the Lane Kiffin Thunderdome against LSU and a visit from Georgia, but we still have three losses to play with while still getting to nine wins. Louisville (in Nashville), Charlotte, at Vanderbilt, Missouri, Auburn, Wofford and Mississippi State are seven; split the home pair against LSU and Georgia and just take one on the road against Florida, Texas and Oklahoma, and we're golden.

South Carolina: Under 6.5

Maybe I'm just unduly low on Kendal Briles being the cure to what's ailed this South Carolina offense, but I have a hard time seeing this team getting to seven wins. A soft non-con featuring Towson and Kent State helps, as do visits from Mississippi State and Kentucky. Even if you take care of business there, though, you still need to find three from Tennessee, at Arkansas, at Alabama, at Florida, at Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Georgia and at Clemson. Those first two could very well happen, but do you really want your hopes to ride on road trips to Gainesville, Norman or Clemson, or a home date with Mike Elko and A&M?

Tennessee: Under 7.5

I am genuinely concerned about Tennessee this year, less because they'll be starting a true freshman at quarterback in blue-chipper Faizon Brandon and more because Josh Heupel didn't do enough to bolster what was a pretty bad defense last season. New DC Jim Knowles famously needs a year or two for his system to really click, which could mean quite the learning curve in 2026. I have them losing to Texas, Alabama, at Texas A&M and LSU, and I don't trust them to run the table against a slate that also includes trips to Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Kentucky and Vandy as well as a home date with Auburn.

Texas: Over 9.5

Let's start with the premise that Texas wins its rematch against Ohio State in Week 2, given that the Buckeyes will be breaking in a ton of new defensive talent as well as a new offensive coordinator. From there, the only games I'm worried about the Horns losing are Ole Miss, at Texas A&M and at LSU, plus a Red River rivalry game where anything historically can happen. But even just a split there still gets us to 10 wins, and I think Steve Sarkisian's team will be favored in at least three of them.

Texas A&M: Under 8.5

Even if we assume that Mike Elko is good enough to cover for the defensive pieces the Aggies lost to the NFL this offseason, Texas A&M is breaking in a first-time play-caller at offensive coordinator as well as more or less a whole new offensive line — hardly the infrastructure you want around an erratic passer like Marcel Reed. A&M needs to go 3-1 against at LSU, at Oklahoma, at Alabama and Texas to avoid the under, and that's not to mention potential pitfalls like at Missouri and at South Carolina.

Vanderbilt: Under 5.5

I wouldn't worry too much about Vandy's decision not to immediately start five-star true freshman Jared Curtis at QB; Clark Lea announced that Curtis will still play in Week 1, and I think this offense will be his before too long. And despite losing the sun, moon and stars in Diego Pavia, what Lea's building in Nashville seems pretty darn sustainable. I'm just not sure it'll result in another bowl this season, with home dates against NC State, Ole Miss, Alabama and Tennessee and road trips to Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Florida. Austin Peay, Delaware and Arkansas are the only games I'm truly confident the Commodores win, and finding three others from that list feels dicey.

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