Table for 12: What Texas's comeback and Arch Manning's moment mean for the CFP

It’s only Week 2 and the Big Ten vs. SEC discourse is already exhausting. But that doesn’t mean the marquee matchups between the two super-conferences’ powerhouse programs aren’t incredibly compelling theater. 

Right now, even with Michigan bouncing back from its embarrassing bailout win last week, the SEC took a big bite out of the Big Ten with Texas’s win, and the Big 12 did its part to enter the conversation by forcing everyone to stop and check Oregon’s credentials for admittance into the national championship contender conversation. 

We dipped our toe a bit further into conference play, three top-12 teams went down, the AP No. 1 blew a 17-point lead for the first-time since 2003, and a few more CFP contenders had serious scares. Just another week in college football.

1. Arch Manning’s moment vs. Ohio State

• First course: Arch Manning’s moment is all about Texas’s upgrades
• Tasting note: The sweet taste of big-game victory that has eluded Steve Sarkisian through much of Texas’s title window, just not quite as sweet as it tastes in January.
• The takeaway: Arch Manning looked like the quarterback he was in the second half of last season, but unlike last year’s matchup with the Buckeyes, he had experience and a much better roster, one built to win it all. 

Arch Manning is more than a last name and a hype machine. That was true last season, and it's true now. But last year, particularly against Texas’s best opponents, he looked like a fabrication because of inexperience and an incomplete supporting cast. 

Ryan Wingo, a one-trick pony prone to drops, was his best receiver, and Parker Livingstone, a sure-handed slot receiver without much dynamic playmaking ability, his No. 1 target. He was pressured on 35.6% of his dropbacks and had a run game that ranked No. 58 in EPA/rush and No. 74 in success rate. It wasn’t enough to seriously compete for a title, not with Manning or any other quarterback, so Texas went out and got serious. 

Serious looked like paying $3 million for Cam Coleman, the biggest portal prize at wide receiver, overhauling the running back room by adding Raleek Brown from Arizona State, and prying NC State transfer Hollywood Smothers away from Alabama after he committed to the Crimson Tide. It looked like signing Melvin Siani to play right tackle and kicking Brandon Baker into guard. 

Serious, was firing Pete Kwiatkowski as defensive coordinator and replacing him with Will Muschamp. And what you got for spending $40+ million on a roster around a quarterback like Manning is a 20-point fourth-quarter comeback. You get a 62% rushing success rate and an untouched Manning going 8-11 for 83 yards in the fourth quarter and 4-5 on third down and 2-2 on fourth down in the second half, showcasing his range as a playmaker. 

And, if you take away the 10 points that Texas essentially spotted Ohio State with its two early turnovers, you get a pretty convincing win with a +13% net success rate edge for the Longhorns. The way it happened feels fluky, but this Texas team is as real as any in the country. 

2. Michigan finally busted the myth of John Mateer

• Second course: An Oklahoma offensive letdown
• Tasting note: A hot helping of reality served up for the SEC’s most overrated quarterback with no excuses to help wash it down. 
• The takeaway: Michigan bounced back from last week’s controversial win with a 17-10 upset of No. 11 Oklahoma. But the story of the game was John Mateer’s struggles, and though Oklahoma’s CFP hopes are still alive, the hope of Mateer turning into a plus-QB is as dead as it’s ever been. 

There will undoubtedly be Bryce Underwood victory laps being taken today. This will not be one of them. There will be talk about Kyle Whittingham getting his team to bounce back and Jay Hill’s defense. That is not the story. No, it’s John Mateer, who didn’t struggle a year ago because of a thumb injury. No, he struggled for the same reason he struggled on Saturday in Ann Arbor, because he doesn’t see it and because he only has one club in the bag. 

Mateer’s thumb injury helped to perpetuate the myth that he was a top SEC quarterback and a first-round NFL talent, rather than a product of Ben Arbuckle’s scheme who feasted on Group of Six defenses at Washington State two years ago. Finally, on a big stage with no excuses, the myth of Mateer is busted. 

Yes, Oklahoma’s offensive line was putrid. Right tackle E’Marion Harris was credited with allowing 7 pressures and three sacks, and right guard Ryan Fodje surrendered five pressures and one sack. Yes, Mateer was pressured on 41.5% of his dropbacks. But how did he fare on those dropbacks? Not well. And on the in-structure dropbacks, when pressure was hardly a factor, he wasn’t much better. 

To get back to the College Football Playoff, Oklahoma needed to replicate some close facsimile of its dominant defense from a year ago, which it has, and have an offense that was offensively bad for much of last season be serviceable. In the Sooners' first test, the defense held up its end of the bargain; the offense… not so much. 

Mateer had every chance to win this game. Instead, he threw a back-breaking interception in the fourth quarter to set up Michigan’s game-winning TD because a fastball is his only pitch, and sometimes, to effectively play quarterback at a high level, you need to throw with a little touch. 

3. Oregon’s problems are bigger than losing Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi

• Third course: A bounce-back beatdown for Oklahoma State
• Tasting note: Hot like the field-level temperature in Stillwater and the five-alarm fire in Eugene
• The takeaway: After a sloppy Week 1 win, Oregon messed around again and paid the price in Stillwater with a 39-31 loss. Fingers will point to the coordinator changes, but Dan Lanning’s problems are much bigger with his underperforming $40 million roster. 

Oregon brought back much of its College Football Playoff roster from last season, but Dan Lanning didn’t keep his coaching staff together, losing both his coordinators, Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi, to Power Four head coaching jobs. He elevated from within, with Drew Mehringer taking over the offense and Chris Hampton leading the defense. 

That’s been pointed to as the main reason for Oregon’s slow start to the year, and justifiably so, but Lanning was Kirby Smart’s DC during the 2021 title run and considered one of the best defensive minds in the sport. I’m sure he didn’t need Lupoi to devise a serviceable defensive game plan for an Oklahoma State offense that was held to 10 points by Tulsa, which had quarterback Drew Mestemaker under constant duress. Especially because Tulsa doesn’t have a four-million-dollar-plus defensive lineman. 

Of that foursome, A’Mauri Washington had a limited snap count, but the other three, Matayo Uiagalelei, Tritium Tuioti, and Bear Alexander, all played at least 50 snaps. Yet, Oklahoma State managed 0.23 EPA/carry, a 49% rushing success rate, and Oregon finished with a 5% run-stuff rate (0th percentile). That’s almost unfathomable a week after Oklahoma State had a 38% rushing success rate in Week 1… again, against Tulsa. 

Oregon has problems all over: Dante Moore looks inaccurate and uncomfortable, the talented wide receiver room has had ugly drops, and a rebuilt offensive line isn’t up to national championship standard. For much of that, though - aside from the drops - pointing to the coordinator is understandable. Getting outplayed in the trenches, it hardly matters who is calling the plays. Oregon gave up 534 yards. That’s not just play-calling. 

There is still time to figure it out, and on the bright side, if the biggest problem is the coordinator changes, that should start to get better with more time to work out the kinks. But right now, this team looks like 2025 Penn State, a talented group lacking depth and caught looking ahead to the national championship game before Week 1 ever kicked off. 

4. Oklahoma State QB, Drew Mestemaker

• Head of the table: The best individual performance of the week earns a seat at the head of the table
• The resume: 26/43,  317 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 6 rush, 109 yards, 1 TD, 39-31 upset of No. 6 Oregon
• The takeaway: Drew Mestemaker wasn’t perfect but he outdueled Dante Moore with a never-say-die attitude and a whole lot of arm talent

The advanced numbers don’t love Mestemaker, who threw an ugly pick-six, one of his two interceptions, and averaged -0.28 EPA/dropback. But expected points added don’t measure heart, and for once, I’ll let that win out over the analytics. It’s only right when a guy helicoptered into the end zone John Elway-style for the game-winning touchdown. 

Mestemaker also made some ridiculous throws for the NFL scouts in attendance to watch him duel with Dante Moore, from a 52-yard bomb under duress to a beautifully layered corner route off a flea flicker. There’s the touch Mateer was looking for. 

I wrote Oklahoma State off for a CFP bid last week after its loss to Tulsa, and for now I’m not inviting the Cowboys back, but when you play an early-season spoiler with an outing like that, you can sit at the head of the table for a week. 

5. Ryan Day’s latest meltdown calls into question his new coordinator

• Bad spill: It’s not a party until somebody spills and these teams might need a change of clothes after their major mishaps
• The mess: Ryan Day went into the NFL ranks to hire Matt Patricia last offseason, and did the same with his new OC hire this year. Arthur Smith had the upper hand in a chess match with Will Muschamp, but ran out of answers in the second half

The flipside of Texas’s comeback is Ohio State’s meltdown. The Buckeyes had a 20-3 fourth-quarter lead, then proceeded to run 11 total players in the fourth quarter, gain 52 yards, most on a wacky Julian Sayin scramble drill, and convert three first downs. 

Smith, predictably, leaned into heavy personnel looks in the first half, loading the field with tight ends, but Texas didn’t take the bait. Muschamp stayed in two-high safety looks, allowing the Buckeyes to run the ball on his unit while keeping a lid on the explosive passing game and bowing up in the red zone. 

Then, Smith answered with spread, making it more difficult for Muschamp to roll zone coverage to Jeremiah Smith, who caught six passes for 110 yards and a touchdown between 8:58 in the 1st quarter and the final seconds of the first half. 

After the half, Muschamp went man, asking his corners, primarily Rutgers transfer Bo Mascoe, to play press-man coverage on Smith, of course, with help over the top. It worked, and from that point on Smith had two catches, granted for 54 yards, and unlike in years past, Ohio State doesn’t have another first-round receiver, at least not one ready for the 2027 draft, on the other side. 

6. LSU learns about the classic Lane Kiffin look-ahead special

• Heimlich Maneuver: Sometimes a CFP contender chokes on their food, but the best teams know the Heimlich
• The choking hazard: Sandwiched between matchups with Clemson and Ole Miss, Louisiana Tech was tough to swallow for the Tigers in a 45-7 win after a 10-7 halftime score

From the man who brought you the 24-21 Ole Miss win over Washington State between games with LSU and Georgia last season and the 24-17 loss to Florida in 2023 between an upset win over Georgia and the Egg Bowl, comes the 10-7 first half against Louisiana Tech. 

Sam Leavitt stopped throwing interceptions after giving it away three times, including a 100-yard pick-six in the second quarter, and LSU eventually pulled away because, of course, it did. And, really, there isn’t much cause for concern because Kiffin does this. He’ll game plan an entire week for the next week’s opponent, in this case his former program, and as long as he gets out with a win, it’s no harm, no foul. 

7. Texas Tech may have stumbled into a QB controversy in Corvallis

• Heimlich Maneuver: Sometimes a CFP contender chokes on their food, but the best teams know the Heimlich
• The choking hazard: Texas Tech starting quarterback Will Hammond’s propensity for negative plays allowed Oregon State to hang around before the Red Raiders slammed the door 35-24. 

It appears fairly safe to assume that this Texas Tech defense is not that Texas Tech defense from a year ago. It’s also becoming hard not to take Oregon State seriously as a real Pac-12 contender despite its 0-2 record. Yet, Texas Tech still has more than enough talent to pound the Beavers and win the Big 12; it just may not have the quarterback. Or it may not be starting him yet. 

If Joey McGuire had his way, Will Hammond would be backing up Brendan Sorsby right now, and for good reason. Hammond went 1-for-2 on seven pressured dropbacks against Oregon State with four sacks. That’s a 57.2% pressure-to-sack rate, the third-highest in the country in Week 2 behind Hawaii’s Noah Kim and Liberty’s Deshawn Purdie. That poor pocket presence and lack of escapability allowed Oregon State to have a 21% havoc rate. 

Hammond’s numbers, otherwise, look fine, but he’s not the answer. Tommy Castellanos, who is volatile in his own right, but who went 3-for-3 for 17 yards and a touchdown, along with 19 rushing yards on five carries exactly two weeks after officially joining the Red Raiders, might just be. 

8. Washington is begging for a loss, but Utah State wouldn’t oblige

• Heimlich Maneuver: Sometimes a CFP contender chokes on their food, but the best teams know the Heimlich
• The choking hazard: A lifeless run game and unreliable pass catchers conspired to keep Washington from putting away Utah State in a 16-14 win. 

Washington is 2-0, but it’s hard to feel any worse about an undefeated team that came into the year with legitimate CFP aspirations right now. A few key drops kept Demond Williams from ever putting this game on ice, but the biggest issues are in the trenches. 

After allowing five pressures in Week 1, true freshman left tackle Kodi Greene allowed four in Week 2. Right tackle Drew Azzopardi has been the bright spot on the offensive line, but even he struggled to open run lanes as Washington averaged 3.2 yards per carry and Williams was the team’s leading rusher for the second consecutive week. If you strip out Williams’ 69 positive rushing yards, Washington running backs managed 51 yards on 22 designed runs (2.3 yards per carry). 

Quaid Carr, Jayden Limar and Jordan Washington all missed the game with injuries, but regardless, the Huskies should have at least averaged three yards a pop on a team that lost to Idaho State in Week 1. That’s not a high bar to clear.

9. BYU has a new Legend, and it’s not Bear Bachmeier

• Hors d’oeuvres: A little something to chew on from the week that was in college football
• Nutrition facts: 
• In 2025, BYU’s offense ranked No. 99 by explosive play rate, but No. 24 by success rate
• By EPA/target, BYU didn’t have a single receiver rank in the top-150 nationally last season. Parker Kingston was No. 132 by yards/target (9.59)
• Legend Glasker’s 1.11 EPA/target through 2 games would have ranked No. 4 in FBS last season

Bear Bachmeier gave BYU a tremendously high offensive floor as a true freshman in 2025, thanks in no small part to running back LJ Martin. But the ceiling of the BYU offense was also tremendously limited, and looked as though it was going to have a similar restrictor plate in 2026. 

However, Legend Glasker’s emergence as a big-play threat on the outside with six catches for 139 yards and two touchdowns through two games is starting to change things. The 6-foot-1 freshman can go. And so far, Bachmeier can get it to him. That’s a major development for a team that desperately needed more explosives to close the gap to Texas Tech in the Big 12. 

10. Kane Wommack and Alabama blitzed Will Stein’s offense into oblivion

• Dessert: Whether it’s a rich play design or a decadent athletic display, here’s a sweet football treat
• Tasting note: A blitz-heavy, chaotic meal Kane Wommack force-fed Kenny Minchey in his first SEC start for a 45-17 Alabama win in Lexington

New Kentucky head coach Will Stein is one of my favorite play-callers is one of my favorite play-callers in college football, but his TE-heavy, quick-game approach was overmatched by Kane Wommack’s Alabama defense. There isn’t much explosiveness on the Kentucky offense, so when you’re trying to paer-cut the Crimson Tide to death, you’re in trouble. 

Wommack has one of the best secondaries in the country, and he knows it. Last season, he blitzed at a 29.9% rate, the 82nd-highest in the FBS. Against Kentucky, trusting his secondary and doubting Kentucky’s receivers' ability to beat them over the top, he cranked up the heat, blitzing on 45.9% of Minchey’s dropbacks, leading to a 20% havoc rate, 7 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, and three turnovers. 

This blitz in particular, overloading the right side and sucking the running back inside by blitzing his MIKE linebacker, Luke Metz, to spring Caleb Woodson free, is a thing of beauty. Wommack has the horses on the back end to blitz like a madman this season. It’d be a mistake not to lean into that identity. 

11. Texas A&M pours it on Arizona State and holds off OC questions

• Dessert: Whether it’s a rich play design or a decadent athletic display, here’s a sweet football treat
• Tasting note: Like a Dairy Queen Blizzard (no free ads), the Aggie Avalanche spun up the Sun Devils to spring one of the best wide receivers in the country for a wide-open touchdown. 

If we’re talking about losing good coordinators, Texas A&M would like a word. Collin Klein returned to Manhattan to lead his alma mater this offseason, so Mike Elko elevated Holmon Wiggins to OC. Sure, not much should change for Marcel Reed, but just because you hand a new play-caller the keys to the car doesn’t mean they know how to drive it. 

Now, the Aggies’ 24-0 fourth quarter in their 48-20 win over Arizona State was primarily due to turnovers, but the scoring started with a play design so perfect that the Sun Devils lost track of Mario Craver, one of the most dynamic downfield threats in the country. 

When the going gets tough, will Wiggins know all the gears to shift and buttons to press in the A&M offense? It remains to be seen. But for now, he clearly understands how to manufacture explosives for his quarterback, so that’s a good start. However, averaging 4.48 yards per play in Week 2 with a 29% late-down success rate is something to monitor. 

12. Boise State gives the Pac-12 the head-to-head win it needs over the American

• Kid’s menu: The CFP saves one spot at the big kids’ table for the Group of Six
• The takeaway: Boise State’s close loss to Oregon will serve to build its resume, but its 38-20 win over Memphis in Week 2 gives the entire Pac-12 a boost. 

The American has emerged as the strongest Group of Six conference in the country, especially with half of the Mountain West splintering off into the reconfigured Pac-12. So, a head-to-head between Memphis and Boise State was critical, especially after Memphis knocked off the Mountain West’s primary CFP contender, UNLV, in Week 0. 

It’s early, but this win over Memphis has it looking like the Pac-12 is the most likely conference to represent the G6 in the CFP, whether it's the Broncos or not. A wild card remaining in that conference hierarchy, however, is a late-September matchup between Boise State and Western Michigan, which nearly knocked off Michigan a week ago and pounded Monmouth 49-14 in Week 2. 

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow