In some weeks, there are plenty of college football games to look at and see an upset coming. This week, you have squint to see any, and that is coming from a blind guy.
There are some teams who are plus numbers on the spread but, not enough that taking the money line is considered to be an upset. This includes games such as Ohio State (+1.5) at Texas. Then there are others like Memphis (+8.5) at Boise State, where I can see the Tigers pulling off the win. But I am not willing to take the money line and would rather be on the spread. Which is also not an upset.
So, after plenty of struggles, conversations with myself, and a full five minutes reviewing the entire schedule to make sure these were the games I wanted, I present to you my stone cold, without a doubt, locked and loaded, possible upsets of Week 2.
USF Bulls @ Army Black Knights
- Line: Army, -3.5
- Date: Saturday | 12 noon
- Channel: CBS SN
Army won their Week 1 game by an easy 59-3 margin over the Bryant Bulldogs on their home field at Michie Stadium. The Black Knights rushed for 579 yards, the fourth-most in program history and quarterback Cale Hellums ran for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns while also throwing for 59 yards on four completions.
The defense — although getting no sacks and no turnovers — held an overmatched Bryant team down all afternoon and will look to do the same against a USF Bulls team who won their first game of the season by a score of 19-9 over FIU in Tampa.
The Bulls, who were hoping Brian Hartline would bring some Ohio State magic to the team upon his arrival as coach only managed four field goals and one rushing touchdown in the matchup. The five-yard touchdown came after a nine-play, 35-yard drive following an interception by defensive back Tayvion Beasley.
This does not sound like the makings of an upset but, with Army set to run the ball and USF having a chance to find their footing on the road, this can turn into a shortened game where both defenses produce results and field goals win the day.
The Bulls, who did not feel threatened by FIU, used their Week 1 game to get ready for what they might expect against the Black Knights. For as much as you can be ready for a triple-option offense, USF and Hartline have attempted to do so this offseason.
If USF can keep Army to field goals, they have a place kicker in Nico Gramatica, who converted on four field goals during Week 1, with the furthest being from 53 yards before half time.
As with all upset plays, this will be tricky but, with risk comes reward.
Duke Blue Devils @ Illinois Fighting Illini
- Line: Illinois, -6
- Date: Saturday | 3:30 p.m
- Channel: FS1
Illinois started off the 2026 with a 42-23 victory over UAB who was able to rid themselves of Trent Dilfer last season. They defeated Duke 45-19 in Durham last season, and will come into this game with a new quarterback in Katin Houser.
Houser, who transferred to Illinois from ECU, has one season of eligibility left and will use his time at Illinois to become a fit for the NFL. In his first game at the helm, Houser finished 13-of-17 for 182 yards and 3 touchdown passes while also running for another score.
He was able to find a connection with wide receiver Collin Dixon who led all Illini receivers with 6 catches for 70 yards and had two of Houser’s three touchdowns. On the defensive side of the ball, Ismael Kante returned the first interception of his career for a pick six, further helping Illinois pile on the Blazers.
Duke will look to enter memorial Stadium to avenge another 2025 defeat at the hands of Illinois. If the Blue Devils want to do so, it will be on the legs of running back Nate Sheppard, who finished with a career high 227 yards and 2 touchdowns on 35 total carries.
Sheppard opened the scoring with a 9-yard run and followed this up with a 47-yard run before the half.
Duke was caught off guard when both Mensa and top wide receiver Cooper Barkate left with hours left in the transfer window for Miami. The presence of Sheppard will make the pill easier to swallow if they can continue their winning ways using the run game and a stifling defense under coach Manny Diaz.
Diaz joked that Sheppard might get 50 carries this week. He might not be far off if Duke can take an early lead and attempt to sit on the ball.
Look for this to be a low scoring game with Sheppard for Duke, and Houser and running back Ca’Lil Valentine, who finished with 11 carries for 88 yards and a touchdown against UAB getting much of the run for Illinois.
This game will be close and with the defense of Duke, the Blue Devils have a chance to pull this game out, breaking the Illini’s 10-game winning streak against non-conference opponents.
Montana State Bobcats @ Nevada Wolf Pack
Montana State, who comes into this game off their second FCS National Championship and first since 1984, is favored over the Nevada Wolf Pack, who defeated Western Kentucky 49-14 in their Week 1 game.
Montana State, off their own dominant 51-24 victory in the Goldrush Game against Butler, brings in quarterback Justin Lamson who led the Bobcats to the national title in January with a 14-yard touchdown pass in overtime against Illinois State.
In week 1 against Butler, Lamson finished with 239 yards passing, 2 passing touchdowns and 1 touchdown on the ground. Along with bringing Lamson back, wide receiver Taco Dowler, the recipient of the winning pass in January comes back and started his season with 97 receiving yards and 1 touchdown.
The Bobcats are a veteran team and bring talent on the offensive side of the ball. The concern lies with the defense ,which allowed 24 points to FCS Butler.
Nevada used a potent running attack to defeat the Hilltoppers as four different backs scored a touchdown, led by Dominic Kelley who finished the day with 11 carries for 152 yards. The 152 yards by Kelley included a 72-yard touchdown, the longest run for the Wolf Pack since early in the 2025 season.
On top of the rushing, Nevada quarterback Carter Jones finished 9-of-15 passing for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns through the air.
With the well rounded nature of Nevada, they should not be home underdogs against Montana State. The Wolf Pack will bully the defensive line of Montana State, and this will allow multiple touchdowns from the back field for a second week in a row. Look for Nevada to move to 2-0 on the season while Montana State returns to the FCS schedule and still with a chance for another national championship.
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