The College Football Playoff selection committee must award at least one guaranteed bid to the highest-ranked Group of 6 teams. Consequently, a Power 4 program gets left out for a school with fewer resources. Several G6 contenders are vying for that spot this year, which isn’t always the case. More importantly, the teams in contention aren’t just good enough to beat G6 teams, but even knock off a Power 4 team too.
Boise State is 5-1 and leading the race, Memphis holds just one loss (to Boise State), and Oregon State is surging after winning four straight – that doesn’t include Oregon State, New Mexico and even North Dakota State. Here’s a breakdown of the top G6 contenders and the Power 4 teams on upset alert as the G6 seeks its first CFP win.
The Tier 1 disruptors: The legit top-12 contenders
Boise State Broncos
- Signature wins: Memphis (38-20); Fresno State (38-31)
- Key players: Maddux Madsen (QB), Dylan Riley (RB)
Boise State's offense is more well-rounded than during its 2025 CFP debut. Beyond running back Dylan Riley, quarterback Maddux Madsen has thrown for 1,300 yards, 13 touchdowns, and no interceptions through six games. While their defense remains a weakness, the offense scores enough — including 27 against Oregon — to keep them competitive against anyone.
If Boise State stays the course, any P4 opponent in the first round will be on high alert. Projected as the 12-seed traveling to Indiana, the Broncos could test a Hoosiers squad that narrowly beat Nebraska. Matchups against Texas Tech or BYU would also pose significant upset threats.
The Dark horse crashers: High ceiling, high risk teams
Oregon State Beavers
Despite two close losses to ranked Power 4 opponents Houston and Texas Tech, Oregon State is surging in the Pac-12. Quarterback Braden Atkinson leads the way with over 2,200 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and only two interceptions. To reach the CFP, the Beavers must win out and capture the Pac-12 title. Defeating Boise State — potentially twice — is their clearest path to building a playoff-worthy resume.
James Madison Dukes
Without any Power 4 opponents on this year's schedule, James Madison faces a tough path back to the CFP. Receiving votes in the AP poll, the Dukes need to finish undefeated while hoping both Boise State and Oregon State stumble. Without Bob Chesney this year, the Dukes are still a good team and should be a team to watch in the G6 race for the CFP, even with a weaker schedule.
New Mexico Lobos
New Mexico’s lone loss is an eight-point margin against Oklahoma, complemented by dominant wins elsewhere. Following North Dakota State's loss to UNLV, the Lobos' path cleared up. If they win out, secure a conference championship, and showcase the resilience they showed against an SEC opponent, they could surprise in the CFP field.
The P4 Nightmare Index: Who wants no part of the G6 champions?
Indiana Hoosiers
Defending champion Indiana holds a 22-game winning streak but looks far more vulnerable after an offensive struggle against Nebraska. Facing a major test against Ohio State, the Hoosiers will want no part of a high-powered G6 champion in the opening round. Not that Indiana can’t grow as the season progresses, but this clearly isn’t the same dominant team from a year ago.
BYU Cougars
Without running back LJ Martin, BYU's offense lacks consistency, evidenced by a narrow single-touchdown win over TCU. With Notre Dame up next, the Cougars face a volatile road ahead and could be highly susceptible to a G6 opponent in the postseason. The Cougars felt snubbed last season and have to prove this year they’re one of the 12 best teams in college football.Â
This year's Group of 6 field isn't just looking for an invitation — these contenders are fully equipped to disrupt the 12-team bracket and advance in the playoff.
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