To reset where we are through four weeks of picking upsets, we have gone 5-7 which is good considering we are only making money line plays and not plays just to cover the spread. Saying this, we want to get above .500 by the end of the year, and it starts this week.
There are some huge college football games this week. Georgia travels to Alabama for their first real game of the season and Texas will take on Oklahoma in the annual Red River Rivalry. To find numbers which are less defined, we will need to turn to other games to find action.
With that said, here are some potential upsets for Week 6 — oh, but take Georgia to cover against Alabama and a small play for Nebraska to cover against Indiana. For those who like the smaller schools, New Mexico, currently 4-1 overall, are 5-0 ATS this season and are covering by an average of 19.5 points per game. Just something to consider.
Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals
- Time: Friday at 7 p.m., ESPN
- Odds: Louisville -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Louisville -188, Florida State +155
After barely losing to Ole Miss and beating SMU, Louisville was the favorite in the ACC to get to Charlotte and play Miami for the conference title. The Cardinals have now lost two straight games against Wake Forest and NC State and are under .500 at 2-3. Coach Jeff Brohm needs to figure out what is going on.
For Florida State — who are coming off a 38-7 win against Virginia — this is a game against a struggling team which can allow the Seminoles to inflate their win total for a chance at a bowl game at the end of the season.
Quarterback Ashton Daniels has played far better recently and running back Ousmane Kromah has taken the lead in the backfield with 81 carries for 477 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground and 7 catches for 54 yards through the air. In another sign that their offense might not be as bad as once thought, the Seminoles' 36 points against Alabama in Tuscaloosa, are the most points the Crimson Tide have allowed to a team all season. Florida State dominated the start of the game before their defense failed them. But the 36 points scored lends well to a similar output in this Friday night showdown.
For Louisville, quarterback Lincoln Keinholz and running back Issac Brown will be forced to finally produce again after a few weeks off. If “Big Game Brohm” can pull off another solid game plan in a big game, the cardinals will win and make me look foolish. If they continue their recent play, and Florida State continues their return to mediocrity, the Seminoles will win this game by a touchdown or more to save coach Mike Norvell for yet another week.
Nevada Wolfpack at UTEP Miners
- Time: Saturday at 7 p.m. ET
- Odds: Nevada -8.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Nevada -350, UTEP +275
Neither of these teams are good. UTEP has lost 51-0 to Oklahoma, Michigan beat them 52-17 and the lost to New Mexico last week 61-7. For Nevada is on a three-game losing streak of their own after losing to Montana State, 20-7, Middle Tennessee State, 27-20 and most recently to Air Force, 36-33.
UTEP plays better at home than they do on the road, and this is what is being considered with this pick. It will be a game you will not want to watch in any manner. But it is always the ugliest game where the most money can be made, so, take a chance on UTEP.
Syracuse Orange at Virginia Cavaliers
- Time: Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network
- Odds: Virginia -8.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Virginia -350, Syracuse _275
Syracuse, after defeating UConn 42-41 in overtime, will look to take down another opponent on the road. Virginia is coming off a bad 38-7 loss to Florida State.
Syracuse is averaging 451 yards per game on offense and are balanced with 168 yards coming on the ground and 283 through the pass game. This will be the third road game in a row for the Orange, which is concerning, but with the way the Cavaliers played last week, the concern is minimized.
Transfer quarterback Beau Pribula has not been as good as advertised. Even behind a veteran offensive line with all five players having five years or more in college, the offense has struggled for coach Tony Elliott.
Virginia does look like the better team on most days. But, with some fans in Charlottesville worried about how long Elliott will stay and if this will cause distraction inside the locker room, it could be another spot where the Cavaliers do not come to play.
It is risky. But I will take a flier on Syracuse to win at Virginia.
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