Defeating a Top 10 opponent in a momentum-building game typically would make people pick you to win your next game, regardless of the opponent. Not No. 4 Ole Miss, which defeated its former head coach in Lane Kiffin and then-No. 7 LSU in Week 3. Instead, the Rebels head down to Gainesville to face No. 21 Florida are expected to lose.
The Gators are 3.5-point favorites over Ole Miss in The Swamp and history actually backs up Las Vegas' rationale to doubt head coach Pete Golding and quarterback Trinidad Chambliss coming off the marquee victory. Since 1978, Top 5 teams are 0-4 as underdogs against teams outside the Top 20.
Those include No. 3 Utah in 2015 falling to unranked USC and No. 3 Oregon stumbling against the No. 23 Utes in 2021. The other two occurrences happened prior to 1995.
While most fans will be recovering from what is presumed to be the game of the weekend between No. 1 Texas and No. 14 Tennessee, the Rebels and Gators will be kicking off the second course of football feasting. Leave it to the SEC to provide an early-season slate of contests where its members will cannibalize one another.
How Florida can upset Ole Miss in The Swamp
Many a contender has traveled to Gainesville and believed it could tame The Swamp. Most of them have learned wrestling a gator is better left for the Florida man. Ole Miss looks primed to be the next victim of the let-down factor coming off a huge conference win.
While the Rebels' offense was firing on all cylinders and Chambliss put on a masterclass -- through the air and on the ground -- Florida has its own overlooked weapons that could match that firepower. Running back Jadan Baugh has already racked up 458 rushing yards and eight touchdowns through just three games and could gash the Ole Miss defense -- which has given up 477 rushing yards on the season so far -- for a triple-digit number on Saturday.
Florida quarterback Aaron Philo will be the X factor in this matchup. He's done well so far with 721 passing yards and six touchdowns but he threw a pick and was sacked twice against Auburn in Week 3, keeping things tighter than his team would've liked. If he cleans up his game and steps up for this massive matchup, he could join a long list of Florida legends.
Both defenses aren't air-tight, which is why offensive efficiency will be the key to victory for either side. The team with the least mistakes is going to win and homefield advantage could help Florida force Chambliss into turning the ball over. Though we could very well be staring at a situation where whoever has the last possession will has the best opportunity to win.
Should history repeat itself for a fifth time in these conditions, Ole Miss will find itself in a precarious position regarding College Football Playoff selection. The Rebels won't be eliminated by a long shot but relying on Florida to remain this good all year long could leave it victim to a strength of record tie-breaker scenario. That's why they play the games, right?
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