While Brian Harman (125/1) might stand as the only true dark horse in the past five years at The Open Championship to end up winning and holding the Claret Jug, that doesn't mean that sleepers aren't always live at the British Open. The links-style golf, the conditions, and the wide variance that this tournament creates bring everyone in the field into play. So while we have our picks and predictions for the week already locked in, it's worth looking at the longshots who have a chance at Royal Birkdale this week as well.
Ball-striking, history at The Open Championship, short game, and everything in-between are all under consideration, just looking for the right nuggets to make the case for these British Open sleepers at Royal Birkdale. And there are some familiar names that fit the criteria this week of being at 60/1 or better on the odds board.
5. Tom Kim +5900 (DraftKings)
The fact that Tom Kim is sitting here hovering at just shy of 60/1 this week at The Open Championship feels a bit crazy considering that he just won a loaded Scottish Open last week. Granted, I too tend to shy away from picking a back-to-back winner, but there's still so much to like about where Kim's game has been trending and, frankly, just how he's going to fit at Royal Birkdale this week.
Kim is third in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds while also ranking in the Top 40 in SG: Around-the-Green and Driving Accuracy, fifth in scrambling and seventh in Bogey Avoidance. Furthermore, let's not forget at his earlier peak back in 2023 when he finished T2 at Hoylake in The Open. He seemingly just has a tremendous feel for the British Open and his form is terrific right now. As long as the putter cooperates, he checks all the boxes to conted this week.
4. Jackson Suber +35000 (FanDuel)
This will be the first start at The Open and only the third major championship start of his career. At the same time, we're talking about a young player who is legitimately putting together an enticing statistical profile, and one that could conceivably lead to him surprising some people at Royal Birkdale this week — especially considering that he's 350/1 coming into the tournament and all that implies about his chances.
Suber is 21st in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, but has also come in as the 10th-best scrambler in the field and 14th-best in Driving Accuracy. I'm fully aware that the links play at Birkdale, combined with the pressure of a major, is a big reason why you'd probably shy away from a player like Suber who could feel a greater effect of that than a more seasoned player. But an accurate ball-striker in good form at this price is at least worth a mention, if not more.
3. Aaron Rai +8000 (BetMGM)
You probably didn't have Aaron Rai winning the PGA Championship on your bingo card to begin the year, so it's even less likely you had the Englishman winning two majors this season. However, Rai has continued to play good golf, even showing some continued major form with a T11 at Shinnecock last month. His price at 80/1, however, doesn't reflect that, nor does it reflect just how good his golf has continued to be.
Rai has consistently been putting up good numbers as a ball-striker and as the fourth-most accurate driver in the field. Combine that with the 14th-best SG: Approach and 28th-best SG: Around-the Green numbers, and we have some grease to cook with this week. Obviously, the pressure on an Englishman to win The Open is immense given that it's been more than 30 years now, but Rai seems unflappable and is playing good enough golf to be the one to bust that trend and elevate his own stock to new heights.
2. Brian Harman +12000 (DraftKings)
Remember when I mentioned Brian Harman as the only true longshot to win the British Open in the last five years? Well, who's to say he can't do exactly that again. From a profile standpoint, he's been positive though not otherworldly on approach over his last 24 rounds, but has flashed a good short game and a continued accurate driver. But it's also worth noting that his style of play and mentality should suit him well this week.
Everything that we're hearing about Birkdale to this point is that it's firm and is going to play quite difficult. Mistakes are going to be lurking around every corner. Harman is the exact type of player who won't exacerbate mistakes. He's proven that he's an absolute bulldog when it comes to battling the elements, and in a week where a mudder might have a distinct advantage, why not take a guy who's done it before at The Open? And if he has a 120/1 price, so be it!
1. Patrick Reed +6600 (DraftKings)
Without double-checking, I've probably listed Patrick Reed as a dark horse pick for all four major championships at this point. Here's the thing, I don't care. Patrick Reed continues to play underrated golf overall this season, going T12 and T10 at the Masters and PGA, respectively. And though he missed the cut at the U.S. Open and had a recent lull, he bounced back last week with a solid T13 showing at the Scottish Open.
Reed will need to keep an inconsistently accurate driver fully in check, but I do think he's more than capable of doing so. Moreover, he's been consistently gaining on approach throughout this year. But it's always going to be the short game that separates Reed from his peers and competitors, and the fact that he gained more than 6.6 strokes in that department last week makes me think he's gearing up for a massive run at the final major of the year.
More Open Championship news and analysis
Add us as a preferred source on Google