Especially at a venue like Shinnecock Hills, it's easy to gravitate toward the favorites to win the 2026 U.S. Open when making picks. And to be sure, my two outrights this week are Rory McIlroy and Matt Fitzpatrick, who are two of the top seven favorites to win the third major championship of the season. Having said that, after we saw J.J. Spaun win last year, it's impossible not to think about the dark horses and sleeper picks that could win the U.S. Open at Shinnecock.
This course is going to test players in every facet. Players need to be accurate off the tee, dialed-in on approach, saucy around and on the greens and have the mental fortitude to withstand the windy and fast conditions. That can put everyone in the field into play if they check the right boxes — but for me, it specifically means that these longshots (which I'm defining as 50-1 or longer odds) are worth investing in for the 2026 U.S. Open.
5. Jordan Spieth +8000 (DraftKings)
I'm not going to lie to you and say that Jordan Spieth is a safe bet. Far from it — and anyone who's watched Spieth over the past umpteen years won't need convincing of that. However, there have been some positive signs when it comes to Spieth's form over the past few months this season that lead you to believe that something could be brewing. You just need to know where to look.
Spieth has gained strokes off the tee in his last five starts and, while his approach and around-the-green play have been somewhat inconsistent, his two starts in major championship this year have both resulted in Top 20 finishes while he's also gained more than nine strokes tee-to-green in each of them.
More importantly, though, it's going to take wherewithal and elite creativity to truly thrive at Shinnecock. Spieth still has some magic that's hard to quantify in his game, even if it's less plentiful than it used to be. When you combine all of that, I can't look away from the possibility.
4. Min Woo Lee +7600 (DraftKings)
Speaking of short-game wizards, we can't forget about the chef, Min Woo Lee. When he's dialed with his short game, he's one of the most lethal around-the-green players in the world. Am I concerned that he's just barley inside the top 100 players in the field in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds? Certainly, because that's not what you want at Shinnecock. At the same time, he finished Top 20 in his three starts prior to missing the cut at the Memorial Tournament, and gained 5.3 strokes or more tee-to-green at both the Truist and PGA Championships.
What stands out to me with Lee is his ability to club down off of the tee and then attack from all angles. He's done extremely well in those environments throughout his career, especially in tandem with what he's capable of around the greens. He also fits the bill for a player who's immensely talented and could be able to come through and make some noise this week at Shinnecock.
3. Alex Fitzpatrick +10000 (BetMGM)
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I am once again going to sing the praises of Alex Fitzpatrick. But the profile remains strong outside of his T75 at the PGA Championship. He's 10th in SG: Approach, third in scrambling (despite losing strokes around the green) and fifth in Bogey Avoidance over the last 24 rounds. He's also performed well at The Open Championship in his career, which should bode well for the links-style challenge of Shinnecock.
Since winning the Zurich with his brother, Matt, he's been able to show up in a number of strong fields with top 10 finishes. That's not nothing. And while competing at a track as difficult and a tepid finish at the PGA is somewhat of an unknown commodity when it comes to Fitzpatrick, I'm still going to feel good about someone who's 100-1 and playing as good of golf as the PGA Tour newcomer has been leading into the summer.
2. Viktor Hovland +5700 (DraftKings)
Once again circling back to players that I just can't quit, I have to take a look at Viktor Hovland. Admittedly, there are plenty of things working against the Norwegian. He's not been in consistent form basically at any point this season, his around-the-green and putting have been his biggest issues on the whole this season, and I'm not entirely sure I trust him to run the mental gambit of handling Shinnecock without self-inflicted wounds.
After I did such a good sell job there, you're probably dying to learn that Hovland has gained strokes on approach in his last three starts, including gaining 6.7 strokes there en route to a solo third finish in Canada last week, and has improved his tee-to-green numbers over the last four starts in each tournament. Mostly, I'm looking at Hovland as someone who, at his best, is one of the best players in the world and seems to be trending in the right direction coming into the U.S. Open.
1. Andrew Putnam +34000 (DraftKings)
I love getting super weird when it comes to the longshots and sleepers by finding someone way, way down the board. And if that's the case, then I think Andrew Putnam at 340-1 is going to have my interest piqued. That starts with his accuracy. While he might not be an elite approach player — he's 80th in the field over the last 24 rounds while gaining just slightly in that department — he lives in the fairway and doesn't put himself in too many bad spots.
More than that, Putnam is Top 25 in both scrambling in Bogey Avoidance, 19th in SG: Putting on fast greens, and 10th in SG: Around-the-Green over the last 24 rounds. That's something we can all work with, especially with someone whose own physical limitations set him up to succeed by just doing what he's been doing. Again, he's a massive dark horse this week, but there's reason to believe he has some juice for this specific test at Shinnecock.
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